The course sequence--Science and Society--at the University of Utah was initiated by Dr. Peter Gibbs, Professor of Physics.  On campus, the sequence includes three courses- (1) Energy, (2) Arms Control, and (3) Futurism.  For correspondence study students, now only these first two courses are available (I plan to develop a correspondence study course for the third topic- Futurism).  Refer to your correspondence study catalog for a description of either course.  Even though these two courses overlap somewhat in the area of nuclear physics, many students register for both since the course material is so relevant to our technological society.
I hope my students will not blindly favor any particular defense alternative.  Arms control and defense matters are complex.  It is useful to examine alternatives carefully before one's mind is made up on which alternative defense solution(s) is (are) best in a given context.  I have attempted to present a balanced perspective of the topic "Arms Control and Defense Management."  The course is based on a variety of readings.  I have discussed many alternatives in this work which are often inadequately addressed in other sources.  If this course enables students to come to their own conclusions about the arms control and defense issues and solutions, then my writing has been successful.  If this course fails in any way I look forward to your comments.  I intend to equip students with the tools to understand the field of arms control and defense management and to identify issues, problems and solutions.  I also look forward to improving the course as new developments occur.  Ideally, students will formulate a mature outlook on arms control, defense, war, etc., as they express their ideas and opinions after reviewing the assigned readings and this syllabus.

Course Description
This course on Arms Control and Defense Management examines the characteristics of defensive (and offensive) technologies and the way we use it to our benefit in a technological society.  The world as we know it seems so permanent and stable.  Yet at any moment an international exchange of nuclear missiles could take place, leaving behind some survivors who would largely be without food, transportation and health care.  Humans have bound themselves into distinctly separate societies that fear one another.  As the world's population increases, fierce international competition for scarce resources, such as petroleum, often results in violent outbreaks in remote parts of the world.  Even so, these wars often have noticeable affects on gasoline supplies, etc., in the major countries of the world.  Nations in fear of losing their independence or in an attempt to gain independence, maintain a degree of war readiness in their society.  The focus of this course is upon war readiness and the prevention of war; that national sovereignty is desirable is a fundamental and necessary presumption of the course.
Succinctly, the course is mainly concerned with the past, present, and future aspects of providing for a secure nation through management of defense programs, control of the arms race, and the understanding of arms and inherent consequences of maintaining various types of arms.

Course Requirements
This syllabus is required reading.  Also, three textbooks are required for the course:  1.  Understanding Arms Control by McCain (1989), ($6.95, about 239 pages), 2.  Soviet Military Power by Gervasi (1988), ($14.95, about 164 pages), and 3.  A Quick & Dirty Guide To War by Dunnigan and Bay (1986), ($10.95, about 415 pages).
Readings will be assigned from these materials at the beginning of each lesson in the syllabus.  The course carries three units of credit.
All assignments will be given at the beginning of each lesson and ideally, will be read before reviewing individual lesson materials in the syllabus.  Questions on the material will be given at the end of each lesson.  They are designed to guide the student to an increased understanding of the lesson and reading material.  The questions do not however, cover all aspects of the lesson material.  They represent the types of questions the student should be concerned with.  Although recommended readings will not usually be summarized in this syllabus, a few important or difficult concepts will be discussed.  The following are required for completion of the course.
1.  Read the assigned materials and syllabus.  Answer the questions included after each lesson in this syllabus.  Send in your answers to the questions included after each lesson in this syllabus.  When you mail in your lessons, one or two at a time as you complete them, indicate "Lessons 1 and 2," etc., on the outside of your folded paper, along with your name (student's name), course number (Physics 100-2), and my name (instructor's name, i.e., Dr. R. Don Green).
2.  Complete lessons one through eight before taking the midterm exam (2 hours--closed book).
3.  Write a research paper, properly footnoted, from six to eight pages, typewritten, and double-spaced--including an outline of the paper and a bibliography--on one of the issues of the course.  Use should be made of the appropriate required, recommended and other readings.  Either an outline or a rough draft of the research paper must be submitted and approved by the instructor before taking the final exam.  The intent is that the instructor will offer valuable guidance and criticism before providing a final evaluation of your completed research paper.  Note that a project may be substituted for the research paper, so long as the student arranges a plan of action under the supervision of the Instructor.  In the past, students' projects have been directly related to their career interests, e.g., "signal intelligence," "cryptography," "weapons," etc.
4.  Submit the completed research paper for a final evaluation (keep a copy just in case your paper becomes "lost in handling").  The midterm, final and research paper are each worth 30% of the final grade.  All questions after each lesson must be submitted to receive a grade for the course and will count as 10% of the final grade.
5.  Take the final exam after completing the lessons.  The final exam is not comprehensive; it is open book with no time limit (take-home exam).

Course Organization
The outline below will provide a general idea of the nature of the course.  Although the required readings will normally not be summarized in this syllabus, important or difficult concepts will usually be discussed.  Several other related topics are discussed in the course; these are not shown in the outline below.  Note from the outline that this course has a dual track.  That is, each lesson covers both a range of arms control topics, e.g., missiles, aircraft, etc., and an "intelligence briefing" about various parts of the world, e.g., The Middle East, Africa, Asia, The Americas, Europe.  By the end of the course you will have a thorough introduction to the topics of arms control and "A Databank on Wars Present and Potential."

SCIENCE AND SOCIETY/Arms Control and Defense Management

Lesson One:  Scientific Method and Arms Control
Part One:  Scientific Method
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  The Middle East (Lebanon)

Lesson Two:  Nuclear Physics
Part One:  Nuclear Physics and Nuclear Power
Why Arms Control?
Nuclear Weapons And Their Effects
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  The Middle East (Israel)

Lesson Three:  Overcoming Nuclear Proliferation Problems
Part One:  Overcoming Nuclear Proliferation Problems
Strategic Delivery Systems
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  The Middle East:  (Persian Gulf, Arabian Peninsula, Diego Garcia)

Lesson Four:  Arms Control Is Changing
Part One:  Arms Control Is Changing
Nuclear Weapons In The European Theater
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  The Middle East (Afghanistan, India and the Sikhs)

Lesson Five:  Strategic Arms Limitations Talks
Part One:  Strategic Arms Limitations Talks
Strategic Doctrine In The West
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Africa (Libya and Chad, Sudan, Somalia and the Horn)

Lesson Six:  Verification of Arms Control Agreements
Part One:  Verification
Soviet Thinking About Nuclear War And The Arms Race
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Africa (Zaire)

Lesson Seven:  Salt II and Other Agreements
Part One:  Verification of Salt II
The Legacy of the Past:  Problems and Progress in Arms Control
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Africa (Boer Wars)

Lesson Eight:  Submarines; Recent Arms Control
Part One:  Submarines
Arms Control In The Eighties
Options In Arms Control
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Asia (Philippines, Indonesia)

* * * Take The Closed-Book Midterm Examination * * *

Lesson Nine:  Advanced Weapons; Soviet Ambitions
Part One:  Advanced Weapons
Soviet Policies and Global Ambitions
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Asia (Korea, Burma, Russia and China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan)

Lesson Ten:  Spending For Arms And Defense
Part One:  Military Spending
Forces for Nuclear Attack
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  The Americas (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, United States, Canada)

Lesson Eleven:  Miscellaneous Topics
Part One:  Strategic Minerals
Terrorism
National Security Polls and activism
Strategic Defense and Space Operations
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  The Americas (Suriname, Caribbean, Falkland Islands)

Lesson Twelve:  Introduction To MX; Theater Operations
Part One:  MX
AAAS Information
Forces for Theater Operations
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Europe (Albania, Yugoslavia)

* * * Submit A Proposal (Outline)
For Your Proposed Research Paper or Project * * *

Lesson Thirteen:  Modelling War, Readiness, Etc.
Part One:  Modelling the MX
Example Research Paper/Project
Readiness, Mobility, and Sustainability
Research Development and Production
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Europe (Spain, Catalonia, Germany)

Lesson Fourteen:  Political Aspects of Arms Control
Part One: 
Political-Military and Regional Policies
The U.S. Response
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Europe ("The Central Front:  World War III")

Lesson Fifteen:  Striking New Deals in Arms Control
Part One:  Striking New Deals in Arms Control
Part Two:  Intelligence Briefing:  Earth- Data on Wars Present and Potential ("The World in Conflict," "The Ability of the World's Nations to Wage War")

* * * Submit Your Completed Research Paper or Project * * *

* * * Complete The Written and Laboratory Final Examination * * *

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Students are encouraged to obtain an Arms Control dictionary or glossary for their own convenience.  A listing of a few associations, journals, etc., is provided at the end of this syllabus.  If you are going to write away for materials do so early.  Any suggestions for expanding or improving the syllabus or appendices will be appreciated.

 

Assignment:  Read the preface in McCain (1989:vii-ix).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about the Middle East (Lebanon) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:1-46).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Scientific Method
Very often the soft sciences (e.g., Social Sciences) are considered inferior to the hard sciences (e.g., Biology, Chemistry, Mathematics and Physics) because experiments cannot be performed that prove anything and identify facts.  The experienced researcher from the hard sciences readily admits the necessity of not believing in facts.  For example, suppose a theory in Physics is demonstrated to hold true when tested by performing various experiments.  The inexperienced researcher will claim fame for discovering new facts and "truth."  The experienced researcher will, after the application of scientific methods, argue that truth (or facts) may have been found.  The problem is that old theories are replaced by new theories; old facts are replaced by new facts.  Although there may be thousands of elements of evidence supporting a theory, it takes but one piece of evidence to refute a theory.
The student will find it useful and intellectually stimulating to take the point of view that "there is no such thing as a fact."  Science has advanced because some researchers have questioned "theories and facts"; in the process new and better "theories and facts" have evolved.
Strong inference, or scientific method, is a systematic way of scientific thinking and problem solving.  It is introduced here to encourage the student to think creatively and critically.  Just because an expert on an area of defense management says that one way is better than another way of defending our nation does not require the student to accept the purported "facts."  Strong inference, as described by John R. Platt ("Strong Inference," Science, Vol. 146 No. 3642 (16 Oct. 1964), p. 347), is quoted below:

Strong inference consists of applying the following steps to every
problem in science, formally and explicitly and regularly:

1)Devising alternative hypotheses;
2)Devising a crucial experiment (or several of them), with alternative
possible outcomes, each of which will, as nearly as possible, exclude
one or more of the hypotheses;
3)Carrying out the experiment so as to get a clean result;
4)Recycling the procedure, making subhypotheses or sequential
hypotheses to refine the possibilities that remain; and so on.

After devising and testing hypotheses, and disproving many of the hypotheses, there may be some hypotheses remaining that were not disproved.  Are these remaining hypotheses true and factual?  We don't know--attempts to disprove the hypotheses have failed and we infer that our theories are true.  But because someone may come along someday and perform a single experiment that could disprove our theory we can only say that our theory is probably true (we infer that it is true).
Notice that although a researcher may hold one hundred pieces of evidence in support of a theory, it takes but one piece of evidence to disprove a theory (it will often be necessary for several independent researchers to verify that a theory is refutable; the theory might continue to be used where it is applicapable because it is useful to do so.  For this reason scientists are more productive when setting out to disprove theories.  If a researcher, after many tests and experiments, is unable to disprove a theory then we could strongly infer that the theory is true.
The method of "strong inference" can be applied by the student throughout the course to be careful about accepting facts formulated by others.  Deciding what defense policies are safe and feasible is a task requiring an examinations of one's own values rather than adopting the values of someone else.
Recently, this author has studied a new generation system's science version of strong inference which shows where to draw the line between the causative and creative sciences.  Briefly, the art and science of formulating problems is defined questionologically with a sensitivity to relevance.  Descriptive and prescriptive decision tools are utilized in an explication process.  It is beyond the scope of this introductory course to discuss these methods.

Models
As in all fields of study, models are an essential tool.  Without models, work could not progress because reality is often too complex to comprehend.  In the beginning pages of this syllabus is an outline showing the general structure of the course.  The outline is a useful model for indicating to the reader the content of the course without requiring the reader to review all of the course materials.  The model (course outline) was created by eliminating many details of the course and hence offers only a limited view of the entire course (reality).
Our understanding of models will increase by considering another example.  I want to acknowledge the map example in Papps and Henderson, Models and Economic Theory (Philadelphia:  W.B. Saunders and Henderson Co., 1977, p.13.).  In my wallet is a photo of my son- it is a two dimensional miniature model of him.  It would not be practical to carry my son (reality) around with me everywhere I go and yet it is convenient to carry the model.  When I show this model to others, they gain a limited perception of my real son; they do not know his real height, etc.  It is possible to have a large photo of my son that would represent his actual height, but this model would be too cumbersome to carry in my pocket.  Hence, models are designed for specific purposes and are often not useful for purposes other than for which they are designed.
We rely on models particularly when dealing with complex problems.  Some models are better than other models when being applied to a specific problem (or to a specific class of problems).  One model is better than another because it offers a more accurate representation of reality.
Models can be graphic, pictorial, written, audible, etc.  In "Model-Making in Physics," Sir Rudolf Peierls (see Contemp. Phys., 1980, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 3-17) says that "models differ by the degree of simplification of exaggeration they involve, according to the purpose for which they are used."  He identifies seven different types of models:  1.  Hypothesis (could be true type); 2. Phenomenological model (behaves as if . . . ); 3. Approximation (something is very small, or very large); 4. Simplification (omit some features for clarity); 5. Instructive model (no quantitative explanation, but gives insight); 6. Analogy (only some features in common); 7. Gedankin experiments (mainly to disprove a possibility).
A definition of arms control is given by Long and Rathjens (1976:1).  Long paraphrases Thomas Schellings 1960 definition of "arms control" as:  "(a) to reduce the probability of war, (b) to reduce the costs of preparations for war, and (c) to reduce the death and destruction if control fails and war comes."  This definition may be viewed as a model of arms control.  For example, the following outline may be thought of as a simple model designed to introduce you to arms control and defense management.

Arms Control and Defense Management:
1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

Researchers use models to depict aspects of the really complex world we live in.  By experimenting with models, we can obtain information without having to wait and see what will happen in the real world if we have chosen, for example, to use a new technology.  A simple model might be used to predict the dispersion of radioactive fallout through the atmosphere.  Think of the "plume of smoke" eminating from a target location which would have been hit by an explosive nuclear device.  Because researchers have studied such things in various ways and in real life situations, and have created reasonably accurate models, we can use a model to predict what will happen to a radioactive "plume of smoke" before we actually build a defense installation (e.g., a defensive weapons factory).  Then we can decide where to place this likely wartime target to minimize the hazards to the many people who could suffer for living downwind of a target after a bombing incident occurs.
Some models have been devised to predict what will happen in the future if we war with another country.  Information from such models is often used to provide insights for improving both our "contingency war plans" and our defenses.
Thinking about models can be useful to students in two ways.  First, to heighten one's perception of what an article or book is saying, and, secondly, to remind one to question the assumptions of the writer of an article or book.  Very often, upon examining an article that says the U.S. should adopt a particular defense policy (such as reducing the nuclear arms stocked by our country), the reader will recognize that several important issues (such as that some arms reductions can increase the probability of war) are ignored or presumed by the author.  The student must carefully search out the facts, recognizing that some scholars may base arguments upon assumptions unstated.  These assumptions may be evaluative in nature and could easily be in conflict with the student's values.  For example, that which is seen as "safe" by the scholar may be seen as "risky" to the student.
In general, models are designed by specifically eliminating some aspects of reality in order to better understand what is of interest at the time.  The lost information is of little or no importance because the model was not designed to reflect all aspects of reality.  A model's very nature is to exclude many aspects of reality so we can focus on a few aspects of reality to increase our understanding of those aspects of reality, thus increasing our understanding of reality.  As we use simple models to enlarge our understanding of reality, we gain information that allows us to make other (sometimes better) models from which we can again increase our knowledge.

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  The Middle East (Lebanon)
The following outlines the topics discussed in Dunnigan and Bay's "intelligence briefings."

Introduction
Source of Conflict
Who's Involved
Geography
History
Local Politics
Participant Strategies and Goals
Superpower Interest
Political
Military
Historical
Economic
Potential Outcomes
Cost of War
Other Observations

From a national security perspective (for the U.S.A.), an intelligence briefing should be sensitive to, among other things, U.S.A.'s interests.  At its best--that is, ideally--our (U.S.A.) foreign policy watches out for the interests of the U.S.A.  From my discussions with several resident scholars, this position on foreign policy is supported by the Foreign Policy Reseach Institute, Philadelphia, PA.  Ideally, Arms Control and Defense Management for the U.S.A. furthers U.S.A.'s interests.  This does not mean that arms control treaties between nations must be, for example, advantageous to one nation and disadvantageous to the other nation.

Win-Lose or Win-Win?
A "zero sum game" is also known as a win-lose situation in which, for example, a pie is of a fixed size:  the more you take, the less I get.  A "non-zero sum game" is also known as a win-win situation in which, for example, a pie is of variable size:  the adjustable size of the pie accommodates both of our needs.  Negotiations are measurably more successful when win-win or mutually profitable/beneficial bargains are agreed upon.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  For example, the usage of the term "INF" in "INF Treaty" suggests the treaty is related to intermediate-range nuclear forces.  Usually, nuclear-tipped intermediate-range delivery vehicles can reach as far as about 300 to 3,400 miles.  One would want to read the treaty carefully to determine the exact meaning of "INF."
A Review of Scientific Notation
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Questions:

Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.Win-Lose
Win-Win

B."zero sum game"
"non-zero sum game"
U.S.A.'s foreign policy

2.  The seven different types of models identified in "Model-Making in Physics" by Sir Rudolf Peierls are:  (1)  __________;  (2)  __________;  (3)  __________;  (4)  __________;  (5)  __________;  (6)  __________;  (7)  __________ (fill in the blanks).

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  Is strong inference as outlined in the syllabus a model for scientific thinking?  Why would or wouldn't strong inference be a good model for helping you to decide which weapons the U.S.A. will buy?
B.  What is arms control and defense management?
C.  Express the following numbers in scientific notation:  1,200,000; 0.00000098.

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  The United States Senate gave its consent to ratification of an INF Treaty in May 1988.
B.  In the early 1980's, the second SALT Treaty was withdrawn from Senate consideration.
C.  There was a "new cold war" in the 1980s.
D.  Topics pertinent to arms control are studied, for example, at sites such as the Center for Science and International Affairs (Harvard), Russian Research Center (Harvard), and Foreign Policy Research Institute (Philadelphia).
E.  Studies pertinent to arms control are funded by governmental and non-governmental entities, e.g., U.S. Department of Defense and the Ford Foundation.

Brief (e.g., one)

5.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- The Middle East (Lebanon).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

Note:  The midterm exam will include, among other things, one of the above questions or a variation thereof.

 

 

Assignment:  Read "Introduction:  Why Arms Control?" and "Nuclear Weapons And Their Effects" in McCain (1989:1-38).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about the Middle East (Israel) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:47-64).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Nuclear Physics and Nuclear Power

Review of Nuclear Fission
Nuclear fission is the gross fracturing or fissuring of a nucleus; the nucleus splits into two or more (usually two) fragments of comparable mass plus some lighter fragments which are usually neutrons.  The fission process releases energy when a heavy Uranium (235U) nucleus, for example, absorbs a low energy neutron and is fractured into several elements:

 23592U143    11n1   ->   14156Ba85   3 11n1    ENERGY
our axe^
(Slow neutron)
A chain reaction may occur if the neutrons emitted in an initial fission reaction instigate other self sustaining, energy producing nuclear reactions.  If the chain reaction is allowed to proceed unchecked and it grows rapidly, an atomic explosion may result.  Nuclear power reactors are designed specifically to make atomic bomb-like explosions impossible to occur.

!!FOOTNOTE 1:Based on D.H. Davis, Energy Politics.

Nuclear Power- Historical Perspective
In 1977 about 2 1/2% of U.S. energy needs were met with electricity produced by nuclear power.  That is about 1O% of all electricity used in the U.S. during the same time period.  Nuclear proponents argue that as the demand for electricity grows, so will the demand for nuclear power stations.
The physical characteristics of nuclear materials and fuel account for the strict political domination so characteristic of the nuclear industry.  Nuclear materials can be used for both peaceful and war making purposes.  The U.S. first developed atomic power as a weapon.  At least 150,000 Japanese people died as a result of the fission bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  World War II ended, and estimates suggest that without the atomic bombs there would have been ten times as many casualties on both sides of the conflict.  The military role has long dominated the politics of atomic power.
The Atomic Energy Act of 1946 created the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC).  The AEC constructed several experimental reactors; the first successful reactor to generate electricity was in 1951 at an Idaho site.  This reactor generated 100 kilowatts of electricity; enough to power 100 handheld hair dryers.  Although the generation of electricity may be considered to be a peaceful gesture, a somewhat modified version of the Idaho reactor was used to propel the U.S.S. Nautilus--a warfare submarine.
During 1953, President Eisenhower addressed the U.N. General Assembly about his Atoms for Peace Plan.  Nuclear material would be shared with countries around the world for peaceful purposes--medicine for example.  The Atomic Energy Act of 1946 was modified by Congress to allow nuclear materials and knowledge to be shared with foreign countries; American businesses lobbied for similar privileges and won access to also.  The U.S.A. was still concerned about its poor image throughout the world as a nuclear cyclops, and in 1958 the merchant ship Savannah became the first nuclear powered nonmilitary ship.  The development of the Savannah was a demonstration of American intent to use nuclear power for peaceful purposes, even though this nuclear powered ship was not economical compared with other merchant ships.
Congress had given the AEC a monopoly on nuclear fuel and information.  The AEC used their power to suppress issues of concern--economic and safety.  During 1949 about 85% of Uranium ore came from the Belgian Congo.  The AEC sought to change this by increasing American production by keeping mining and processing costs low.  The policy outcome was to ignore safety.  The AEC ignored a hundred years of European experience in radioactive mines.  A 1930 European solution to the increased risk of lung cancer for miners working in radioactive areas was to increase the ventilation in the mines; Uranium decayed to radon and radon daughter products.  Many of which were radioactive gases.  When the gases were inhaled on a continuing basis lung cancer often appeared ten or twenty years later.  This problem was ignored by the AEC until 1967 when mining safety standards were finally strengthened.
In Colorado, Climax Uranium Company was allowed by the AEC to sell some 200,000 tons of radioactive tailings (the fine sand remaining after processing Uranium ore) to home builders.  Radon gas (a daughter product of radium) now seeps up through the floors of 5,000 homes in Colorado, exposing humans to gamma radiation.  These people run an increased risk of developing cancer or genetic mutations.  A similar, though not as extensive problem exists in Salt Lake City with the Vitro (company) tailings.
Nuclear power plants endanger the environment in two ways-- accidentally and routinely.  Nuclear accidents, such as with "Windscale Pile Number One" in England often result in an accidental escape of radiation.  Fallout from this reactor accident spread one-tenth the radioactivity of the Hiroshima bomb over England, France and other European countries.  Radioactive iodine contaminated 200 square miles of grazing lands and after cows ate the grasses and produced milk, the English government had to destroy large quantities of radioactive milk.  Although the radiation levels of the milk were not very high, a dangerous dose of radiation would have resulted to the thyroid gland in humans because it concentrates iodine and cannot differentiate between radioactive and non-radioactive iodine.  In Russia during 1958 buried radioactive waste materials exploded in the Ural Mountains; death and sickness resulted.  The contaminated territory is still closed to excess except for radiation researchers who monitor the continuing affects of the accident.  In the United States, the AEC's National Reactor Testing Station had an accident in 1961 due to a mismanaged control rod.  Three workers were killed.  For a period of time the AEC banned construction of nuclear power plants near population centers, then it reversed itself by allowing such construction so long as the power plant maintained "safety through engineering."  Another U.S. accident, this time at the Fermi Power Plant near Detroit, serves as supportive evidence for "safety through engineering" but also as a warning of the possibility of the ultimate accident--the "China Syndrome":

A bit of sheet metal chipped off, blocking the sodium pumped through the pile to keep it cool.  The result was a nuclear "fire" similar to the Windscale accident in England.  Here the safety devices did work properly end extinguished the fire.  Had the safety controls failed the result would have been what reactor experts call the "China Syndrome." Within two minutes of a drastic coolant failure, the reactor heats up to 3,360 degrees Fahrenheit and the core collapses.  Within an hour the molten mass burns through the bottom of its container, accompanied by steam explosions.  Within a day it burns through the concrete containment slab under the plant.  The fiery fuel forms a glob in the earth one hundred feet in diameter.  Some predict that the molten mass of the reactor will burn its way down deeper through the earth directly toward China.  More likely it will lie burning at the bottom of its self-dug pit for over ten years.

An AEC commissioned study--The Rasmussen Report--estimates the odds against a fatality from a core meltdown ending in a major explosion at one in five billion.  The American Physical Society, in a counter analysis, rebutted the report point by point and found that the probabilities of malfunctions are much higher.  For example, seven of twelve safety systems failed to operate in a 1975 fire at Tennessee Valley Authorities' Brown's Ferry nuclear plant when a workman's candle (for detecting ventilation leaks) ignited insulation--causing fire that eventually spread to the control room.  If a radioactive steam explosion had resulted, lives would have been endangered twenty to forty miles away.  The Fermi plant, now abandoned because of so many difficulties and accidents, is 30 miles from Detroit.  Likewise, the Zion, Illinois plant is only 30 miles from Chicago.  What with human error and the potentially devastating consequence of 4 major accident, safety through engineering is hardly a replacement for safety through distance.  Both are essential if society continues to rely on nuclear power for energy.
In 1974 an Orlando, Florida teenager (14 years old) used an H-Bomb hoax to demand one million dollars from the city.  A diagram of the purported bomb that was drawn by the youngster was sufficient to convince an Air Force Nuclear Armaments officer that the threat was credible.  Although nuclear weapons can be made by amateurs, they can do so only if they have adequate nuclear materials.  Even with tight control of nuclear bomb grade materials--a large amount has already disappeared from U.S. institutions or else bookkeeping errors have been made.  Fuel grade materials and nuclear waste generally are handled without much security.  Great harm could be caused the public by a terrorist who would simply dump a bucketful of waste Plutonium out of the window of a tall city building.
The inherent dangers of nuclear materials, waste and bombs are sufficient that a non-nuclear country must be concerned with the activities of neighboring countries.  An International Atomic Energy Agency was formed in 1958 to inspect and control reactors and to generally promote nuclear safety. Countries with atomic bombs signed the 1968 Treaty of Nonproliferation; the have-nots declined to sign.
In terms of the conversion of heat to electricity, nuclear plants are 30% efficient whereas coal fired plants are typically 40% efficient.  Another minus for nuclear plants is that 7O% of the heat they generate goes to warm a coolant (generally fresh or salt water) whereas coal plants send a significant portion of their heat to the atmosphere out the smokestack.  Environmentalists fear the detrimental affects on aquatic life.
"Can electricity be generated by nuclear power methods?" has a straightforward answer--yes.  But the question "Should nuclear power be used to generate electricity needed by the public?" has no easy answer; the question is value-based and will likely have as many different answers as there are people answering the question.  The important question then is, "When scientists disagree, who's opinion should be adopted?"  In past years the President and Congress have relied heavily on technocrats.  In recent years we see a trend where decision makers either have or are acquiring expertise.  President Jimmy Carter, for example, has some nuclear power expertise.  He halted the commercialization of the "Fast breeder reactor," along with halting the construction of a $2.2 billion Plutonium reprocessing plant in Tennessee.  President Carter may have known what he was doing; fast breeder reactors make plutonium faster then it is consumed--plutonium has a half-life of 24,000 years.  The increased presence of plutonium in the world may or may not be a destabilizing force.  The popular opinion is that with a plutonium based economy for energy production we would likely see a proliferation of nuclear weaponry.  Some scholars take the opposite viewpoint--that which supposes a world where energy is abundant is safer than one in which energy is scarce.
Public opinion, since the time of the Three Mile Island accident has probably turned anti-nuclear power.  In many states in the U.S., voter initiatives can be placed on the ballot to adopt or enact laws.  This direct form of democracy has been applied to nuclear power in recent years in seven states (California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Colorado, Montana, and Ohio).  The results of the initiatives have been roughly a 2:1 victory for nuclear power in all these states.  Such enthusiasm may be linked to the Arab Oil Embargoes of the early 1970's.  The decisions might not have been so one-sided if the votes were taken after the Three Mile Island accident.  In addition, it is estimated that the nuclear power industry spent more than six million dollars to defend nuclear power just before voters went to the polls.
The electricity produced from nuclear plants is clean and not radioactive.  But the routine and accidental release of radiation by nuclear plants make them undesirable for back-door neighbors to most Americans.  Another problem, thermal pollution (hot water) has been discussed.  Coal as an alternative produces smoke and dust.
Nuclear power as discussed above has focused on fission, not fusion.  Fusion power is now a hope for the future.  With fusion, the deuterium (heavy isotope of Hydrogen) from one gallon of water could produce the energy equivalent of 300 gallons of gasoline.
In summary (waste disposal is discussed in the next lesson) nuclear power is a highly regulated arena.  The complex technology, strict regulation, and, high costs limit market participation to a small elite of scientists and wealthy corporations.  People who lack nuclear know-how generally argue for or against nuclear power on a "basis of ideological or emotional commitments to private (or public) ownership, environmentalism, anticommunism, or faith in technology."

Who Will Pay For Nuclear Power?
Of the forty nine utility companies building nuclear power plants in the U.S.A., seven now list their nuclear construction projects as deferred or cancelled (source:  Value Line-Selection & Opinion, February 3, 1984, p. 650).  The price of common stock for Public Services of Indiana tumbled from $27 per share to about $8 3/4 in just three months when investors learned that the twin reactor construction project was under scrutiny from a panel appointed by the Governor; by the third week in January, 1984, the utility company gave up and cancelled the project even though much of the $2.3 billion needed for the project was already invested;  unit #1 is 56% complete ($1.3 billion invested); unit #2 is 35% complete ($.6 billion invested) (source:  The Value Line Investment Survey, Rating and Reports, January 27, 1984 p. 737 and Nov. 18, 1983, p. 1289).  As soon as investors get wind of trouble in these nuclear projects, they dump their equity holdings and move to a safer, more stable stock.  "Utilities with nuclear plants under construction are in the Wall Street doghouse" (Value Line, Ratings & Reports, Jan. 27, 1984, p. 701), so even if America wants nuclear power, who will pay to have the plants built?  What is the future of nuclear power in America.

 

Nuclear Power Plants "Outlined"

A.  Energy released through process of fission
1. Process involves splitting of heavy Uranium nucleus (235U) when it absorbs a low energy neutron.
a. critical- controlled chain reaction
b. supercritical- uncontrolled chain reaction
2. Critical mass = enough 235U (or other) for an uncontrolled chain reaction to be sustained.
3.  235U + "slow" neutrons -> fission
a.  235U rare
b.  most natural Uranium is 238U (3 more neutrons)
c. 238U doesn't fission
i.  if too much 238U around 235U then no reaction
ii.  must "enrich" natural Uranium to about 3% 235U
- this is difficult and expensive
- the few enrichment plants in the country are operated
by the military
d.  need "slow" neutrons to cause fission
i. Neutrons produced by fission are "fast" neutrons
ii.  must slow these "fast" neutrons
-in most reactors we use water or graphite to slow the
neutrons
-the substance "moderates" the neutron energy and hence
we call it the moderator
4.  Slow down the reaction in the reactor
a.  control rods
i.  pull out control rods, more neutrons
speed up reaction
ii.  push in control rods--these absorb neutrons--reaction slows
B.  Parts of nuclear reactor core
1.  enriched fuel
2.  moderator to slow neutrons
3.  control rods to regulate or stop reaction

C.  Nuclear energy converted to heat
1.  after a fission, we have fast moving products
a.  two-four neutrons
b.  at least two fission decay products
2.  some of the neutrons are slowed and used to produce another fission
3.  other neutrons and products give up kinetic energy to the core and/or
water surrounding the core

D.  Many technical schemes for taking heat from core to generate electricity

1.  Light Water Reactor (LWR)
a.  Pressurized water in the core doesn't boil; the heat is transferred
by heat exchanger to another water reservoir to generate steam ->
electricity

2.  Heavy Water Reactor (HWR)
a.  uses water with "heavy" hydrogen
i.  good- heavy water is a better moderator so we don't need
enriched fuel
ii.  bad- heavy water is expensive

3.  Gas-cooled reactors- uses helium, not water
a.  very efficient
i.  good- little danger of loss-of-coolant accident
ii.  bad- need large reactor container and must use highly enriched
fuel since helium is not a good moderator

4.  Breeder Reactor
.238U + Neutronfast + 239Pu
Plutonium (239Pu) is as good as 235U in fission
a.  all nuclear reactors breed plutonium
i.  nuclear fuel is generally 97% 238U and there are plenty of fast
neutrons so 239Pu is being made all the time
b.  Fast Breeder Reactor breeds more fuel than it uses
i.  blanket of 238U surrounds reactor core capturing fast neutrons
and converting to 239Pu
ii.  blanket is later reprocessed to extract 239Pu
iii.  the extracted 239Pu is later used as fuel in other breeder
reactors
iv.  Since we use the abundant 238U as raw material rather than rare
.235U, the resource base is extended dramatically.

c.  Liquid Metal Fast Breeder
i.  uses liquid sodium instead of water to transfer heat from the core
to the steam generator
ii.  good- good heat transfer so you can operate at high temperatures
to get better efficiency
iii.  bad- radioactive sodium and sodium explodes when in contact
with water
d.  Thorium Th232 + Neutronslow -> 233U
i.  233U is fissionable like 235U
ii.  good- Th232 is three times more abundant than Uranium
-thermal breeder (uses slow neutrons)
-233U can be mixed with 235U to make it valuable as bomb
material
ii.  bad- presently lacking in technology to do this efficiently for
commercial applications.

High-level Radioactive Wastes- Production Methods
There are two primary sources of high-level radioactive wastes in spent nuclear fuel.  One is from fission which produces radioactive fission fragments.  The other is from bombardment which produces the actinides.  Actinides are the radioactive nuclear species produced from the bombardment of 235U and .238U by neutrons in for example, a nuclear reactor.

!!FOOTNOTE 2:For more details refer to "The Necessity of Fission Power" by Hans Bethe, pp. 69-81 and "Nuclear Power, Nuclear Weapons and International Stability" by D. Rose and R. Lester, pp. 212-225, both in Energy and Environment.  Also refer to "The Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons" by William Epstein, "The Reprocessing of Nuclear Fuels" by William Bebbington, and "The Disposal of Radioactive Wastes From Fission Reactors" by Bernard Cohen, all in Energy and The Environment.

The "Costs" of Nuclear Power
In "The Necessity of Fission Power" by Hans Bethe (Scientific American, January 1976), fission power is seen as the only source that can make a major contribution between now and the end of the century if the U.S. must have sources of energy other than fossil fuels.  And the safety record of nuclear power is contrasted with the thousands of deaths and accidents caused from motor-vehicle accidents, falls, fires/hot substances, drowning, and other accidents.  Bethe also contrasts the estimated number of fatalities per year in these categories--coal-burning power plant without and with scrubbers; nuclear power plant--where such fatalities ares caused from (1) mining and milling, (2) transportation, manufacturing and operation, (3) pollution, and (4) accidents.  By these measures, nuclear power looks quite safe compared to the coal technologies.
The proliferation of nuclear weapons is a problem often cited about why we should not develop fuel reprocessing facilities and nuclear breeder reactors.  Fission reactors convert 238U to plutonium, material which is useful in either "atomic bombs" or in reactors as fuel.  The plutonium must be extracted from the nuclear reactor waste materials however, and this presents an opportunity for plutonium to be diverted away from an energy path to a weapons path.  Hence some experts have argued against the use of fast breeder reactors.  Other experts disagree and in fact argue that the U.S. ought to pursue the development of these nuclear breeding and processing reactors.  Other experts disagree and in fact argue that the U.S. ought to pursue the development of these nuclear breeding and processing technologies so we can maintain an influence for peace and safety in the world where these technologies are likely to be adopted.  For example, because some of the countries in the world don't have sizeable oil or coal reserves, nuclear power is more attractive as an energy source.  And the fast breeder is especially attractive because it can convert abundant 238U into a useful fuel.  Because there are countries where these technologies will be used, the U.S. can most easily maintain influence by overseeing the development of technologies and systems to prevent these countries from directing plutonium to the weapons factories rather than to the power plant; and the incentive for making bombs will be reduced if these countries have an abundant and reliable source of energy such as is available with fast breeder reactors.

The Dilemma of Nuclear Power
(Included here after some editing from the unpublished Physics 100 lecture notes of Greg Hoffman, Teaching Fellow, University of Utah, Department of Physics)
1.  Reactor Safety:  With the Three-Mile Island incident reactor safety has become the center of public debate.  For years the public was assured by government and industry agencies that the risks of nuclear power were equal to, if not less than, those of conventional power sources.  Many people find such assurances rather empty now.  We'll discuss the safety problem in the context of the most serious possible accident, a loss-of-coolant.
A nuclear chain reaction produces heat and that heat must be removed to be utilized in the generation of steam.  This is the function of the coolant surrounding the core, be it light water, heavy water, gas, or liquid metal.  In most cases the coolant must be circulated to carry the heat away from the core to be used elsewhere.  Should a pipe break or a pump fail the heat can no longer be removed.  It stays in the core, and rapidly rising temperatures cause the core to melt.  Such a melt-down does not lead to an atomic explosion, but it does lead to a chain reaction beyond the control of operators; the resultant heat potentially melting through various containment structures and into the environment.
There are various safety devices designed to prevent a meltdown after a loss-of-coolant.

i)  The reactor is shut down by the control rods.
ii)  Then extra water is dumped on the core from the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS).
How did these devices function at Three-Mile Island?  Actually very well.  The loss-of-coolant occurred when a circulation pump broke down.  The reactor was immediately shut down (scrammed) and the ECCS activated.  The reactor began to cool.  Then human error quelled the operating safety systems; a gauge was misread, the ECCS was shut down, and part of the core melted.  Attempts to correct the error went from bad to worse--ending up with 6 ft. of radioactive water in the containment structure, steam and gas explosions, and a damaged core.
After the initial fear of a melt-down was over, the next concern was the possible effect of radiation leakage.  In the United States much attention is paid to designing safety features to minimize the leakage of radiation.  Pressure vessels that hold the core and coolant are designed to withstand possible explosions.  The vessel at Three-mile Island did hold together during an explosion of hydrogen early in the accident.  The entire reactor is encased in a concrete containment structure to further limit the possibility of leakage.  In general, the radiation leakage at Three-Mile was due to the venting of radioactive gas and steam needed to prevent an explosion within the containment structure.  Such venting released low level radioactivity into the environment.  This leads naturally to the question, "What are the health effects of exposure to radiation, particularly low-level radiation?"
There are basically three health problems associated with radiation:  radiation sickness, cancer, genetic defects.  Radiation sickness requires a relatively large dosage like that received from fallout in the immediate region of an atomic bomb blast.  Only a total melt-down could cause the release of high levels of radiation.  The effect of radiation on human genes is conventionally assumed to be linear, i.e., as the dosage drops so does the effect.  Thus low-level exposure should have little effect, relative to intense exposure to radiation.
Cancer is a controversial problem.  Some feel that the ability of radiation to cause cancer is linear, like its genetic effects, so low level radiation is not a problem.  Others feel that lower level radiation is more dangerous.  This idea is based on the mutation mechanism which begins a cancer.  Low-level radiation is more likely to mutate a cell while higher levels generally kill the cell.  Hence low-level is more likely to cause cancer.  Research is being done in Southern Utah, and on the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and will be done on the residents of the Three-Mile Island area to attempt to resolve the dispute over the link between exposure level to radiation.
If the United States increases its dependence or breeder reactors and the plutonium fuel used, we will have to deal with the health problems of 239Pu.  Plutonium is different from the radioactive materials we have been discussing since it is an alpha-emitter.  When 239Pu decays it emits an alpha particle (9 protons and 2 neutrons) which cannot penetrate human skin, unlike the beta and gamma rays of the radioactive materials discussed above.  In other words, you can hold plutonium in your hand for a short time and suffer no ill effects.  The health hazard of Plutonium is when it is inhaled or ingested.  A tiny amount of Plutonium, when inhaled, greatly increases the possibility of lung cancer.  The emitted alpha particle destroys and mutates lung tissue easily.  If you inhaled one-millionth of a gram of 239Pu you would receive almost double the official maximum dosage.  A gram of Plutonium in the ventilation system of a large building could lead to the development of lung cancer in thousands of people.
The last statement of the preceding paragraph raises the problem of nuclear terrorism and proliferation of nuclear weaponry.  Plutonium is easier to steal than Uranium since it does not require extensive shielding, and therefore may easily be hidden from radiation detection devices.  Moreover, plutonium need not be used as bomb material; it is hazardous as a chemical.  If a terrorist or a previously non-nuclear country wanted an atomic bomb, the widespread use of plutonium as a reactor fuel would likely ease the task; the difficult part of building a nuclear weapon is getting the fission material.  Natural Uranium must be enriched to 97% 235U to be suitable for bombmaking.  This is costly and difficult, and such an operation is easy to detect because Uranium is not easily hidden from radiation detectors.  The 3% enriched reactor fuel is not sufficient for making bombs.  Therefore reactor-grade Uranium can be transported without security since it can't be utilized as weapons material.  Nor can any country using reactor-grade Uranium convert it to weapon-grade.  But reactor fuel plutonium is also weapons-grade material; there is no non-fission material to mix with it.  Transportation security would likely be the weak link and stolen .239Pu can readily be used in a weapon.  Also, any non-nuclear weapons country using plutonium as a reactor fuel could become a nuclear armed nation in a matter of days.  Some scholars argue that the plutonium economy aggravates the problems of material security and proliferation of nuclear weaponry; a few scholars disagree (see "Nuclear Power, Nuclear Weapons and International Stability"--an assigned reading).  There is a way out via the Thorium cycle.  As previously mentioned, Thorium can be used in a thermal breeder to produce .233U.  This can be mixed with 238U so that it can be shipped as non-weapons grade material, thus easing the security and proliferation problems.  The inadequacy of this solution is the time, technology and money required to develop and convert to a thorium economy.

!!FOOTNOTE 3:Bernard Cohen, "The Disposal of Radioactive Wastes from Fission Reactors," in Energy and Environment, p. 170.
2.  Waste disposal:  The fuel in a reactor lasts about three years; after that various wastes must be safely disposed.  For example, a light water reactor is initially fueled with a mixture of Uranium 238 (96.7%) and Uranium 235 (3.3%).  After about three years the fuel gradually converts to several waste products as follows:  Uranium 235 (.8%), Uranium 236 (.46%), Uranium 238 (94.3%) Neptunium 237 (.05%), Americium 243 (.12%), Curium 244 (.004%), and various isotopes of Plutonium (.89%).
A major problem in the nuclear industry is the disposal of these waste materials.  Originally the plan was to reprocess spent fuel to remove useful .235U and Plutonium then bury the remainder.  However, reprocessing has run into problems concerning cost, safety, and security.  There are no commercially operated reprocessing plants in the U.S.A. at present; only the military can reprocess spent fuel.  So the current proposal is to bury waste without reprocessing.
How much waste are we dealing with?  By volume the amounts are small. The waste from a 1000 megawatt nuclear power plant after a year of operation would fit under a dining room table.  Compare that with the waste from a 1000 megawatt coal-fired power plant:

Carbon dioxide -- 60O pounds per second.
Sulfur dioxide -- 10 pounds per second.
Ash -- 30 pounds per second.
Nitrogen oxides -- as much as is produced by operating 200,000 automobiles
simultaneously.

The volume of nuclear waste is not a problem.  The difficulties associated with the disposal of nuclear waste lie in the long lifetime of the radioactive materials end the heat generated by the decay of these materials.  The proposed disposal method is to bury the waste in deep, geologically stable formations, most commonly salt formations.  The waste would be contained in special cannisters that would be buried in an area that would eventually be sealed; later a new area would be opened.  There are several reasons for using salt formations:

i)  Salt will flow and deform under geologic stress, instead of fracture.
ii)  Salt has good thermal properties to conduct heat away from cannisters.
iii)  In salt beds, water migrates towards the hot cannisters and can be
drawn off by adequate ventilation as moisture in the air.

There are problems with the burial of radioactive waste products.
1.  The heat produced by radioactive decay may melt the waste containers releasing the waste.  This problem is alleviated by using salt, because it conducts heat, and waiting ten years before burying the waste.
2.  The possibility of highly-penetrating gamma rays reaching and damaging the external environment and the risk of contaminating water supplies.  This would be minimized by the deep burial of wastes in semi-arid regions such as Utah and New Mexico.
3.  The long lifetimes of nuclear waste materials result in the need to monitor the stored wastes over periods of hundreds of years.  (A nuclear priesthood? where future societies will have no choice but to watch over hazardous wastes created by an earlier society.)
Despite such problems, burial is by far the leading candidate for disposing of nuclear wastes.

3.  Cost escalation of Nuclear Power:  One of the major selling points of nuclear energy in the 1950's and 60's was the low cost of the electricity generated.  In recent years this claim appears to no longer be valid.  The cost of building and operating a nuclear power plant has grown to the point where the cost of generated electricity equals, or may even exceed the cost of electricity generated by oil and coal-fired plants.  The major causes of the price escalation are below:

i)  The general problems of inflation; labor and construction costs in the
nuclear industry have risen more than general construction costs.
ii)  Increased safety requirements are being imposed.
iii)  Increase in the time to license a nuclear plant and the related
increased expense of licensing.

Because of the increased public opposition after the Three-Mile Island incident, causes (ii) and (iii) are likely to become an even greater problem.  The end of the nuclear age may well come not because of safety concerns, but because of unacceptable expenses associated with adequate measures to promote the safe construction and operation of nuclear power facilities.

Is Nuclear Power Necessary:
Although they have been less vocal in recent months, many thoughtful people have argued that nuclear power is essential to the economic well-being of the United States--and ultimately to its existence.  Others argue the costs and risks of Nuclear power are too great.  Which side is right?
Certainly the risks of nuclear power are great; the real question is whether the risks associated with nuclear power are any greater than the risks associated with other forms of electrical energy production.  "The necessity of Fission Power" offers enlightening information from a proponent of nuclear Power.  Some policies that may reduce the risks of nuclear power are listed below:

i)  Frequent inspection during construction and operation.
ii)  Building away from population centers (safety through distance)
iii)  Redundant backup wastes (safety through engineering).
iv)  Burial of radioactive wastes and periodic inspection of burial sites.

Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
The U.S.A., Britain, and the U.S.S.R. signed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963); France, the latest nuclear power, did not sign the treaty.  This treaty prohibited tests of nuclear devices in the atmosphere, space or oceans.  Although this treaty halted most of the atmospheric tests of nuclear devices, its effect was that many nuclear tests were conducted underground.

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  The Middle East (Israel)
By now, through your area studies, you have recognized several sources of conflict in the Middle East.  One source is related to differences in traditions among various groups of people.  The longevity of traditions is enhanced through, among other things, religion.  When the traditions of various religions differ, there is a potential for conflict.  Conflicts are sometimes described in terms of struggles between righteousness and wickedness, light and dark, etc.  In my discussions with a former limosine-class official of a Persian Gulf state, it was clear that unneccessary and sometimes cruel force is applied in the name of religion.  If religions increase their tolerance of "competing religions," I suspect the longevity of conflict causing traditions will decline.  Traditions are also furthered by recorded history, holidays, myths, etc.
Geographically and technologically, Israel is difficult to protect from attack by artillery, missiles, etc.  When low ground is to be protected from neighboring higher elevations, an arguably sensible approach is to seize and permanently occupy some of these higher elevations.  Excuses for doing so may be related to imminent dangers or historic conflicts.  Leaders concerned about "keeping score" may easily increase the longevity of a society's anger against former adversaries.  Leaders concerned about economic growth may decrease a society's reservations about free trade with former but recent adversaries.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  Non-nuclear explosives are the conventional explosives, e.g., nitrates, TNT, dynamite, plastique explosive, metallic fulminates (e.g., fulminate of mercury), etc.  Military logic can be based on inductive or deductive logic.  GDP--Gross Domestic Product--is the total value of goods and services produced by a nation for internal consumption, i.e., the amount of wealth the nation produces in a year.  GDP is approximately GNP (Gross National Product) less the value of goods and services exported (foreign trade).

Questions:

Short Answer (e.g., two sentences or a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick one group from below)

A.Cold War
U.S.S.R.
Korean War
Beijing
Moscow
Prague Spring
Warsaw Pact
Nikita Khrushev (1962)
De´tente
Joseph Stalin

B.Hydrogen Bomb
"relaxation of tensions"
"peaceful coexistence"
Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963)
Outer Space Treaty (1967)
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (1968)
SALT I (1972)
SALT II (1979)
INF (1988)
National War College

C.ICBM
crisis stability
antisatellite systemss
satellite reconnaissance
nuclear deterrence
soft targets
countervalue retaliation
counterforce targeting
Albert Einstein
fission

D.hydrocarbons
Peaceful Nuclear Explosions (PNE) Treaty (1976)
strong force
E  m  c2
speed of light (186,000 miles per second)
trigger
bombardment with neutrons
protons
gama rays
chain reaction

E.critical mass
roughly 1024 uranium atoms
fissile material
reducing the ratio of surface area to volume
"Little Boy" (Hiroshima, 1945)
a subcritical--hollowed out--fissile mass
"Fat Man" (Nagasaki; 1945; Pu)
equivalent effect of kilotons or megatons of TNT
kiloton
megaton

F.Manhattan Project (1942)
Alamogordo, New Mexico
President Truman
1946 Baruch Plan
the "nuclear club"
hydrogen bomb (1,000 times more powerful . . . )
58 megaton device (Soviet)
nuclear fusion (deuterium, tritium, helium, neutron)
thermonuclear device
fission-fusion-fission device

G.shield of uranium which encases the fusion chamber
Great Britain's nuclear device (1952)
Strontium 90
smaller warheads of greater yield (and delivery systems)
land- and sea-based missiles with intercontinental range
miniature nuclear artillery for use on battlefields
multiple-warhead missiles (independently targetable)
warhead race vs. delivery vehicle race
nuclear winter

2.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick one group from below)  Note:  you may need an encylclopaedia or other reference work for some of these terms.

A.turbine
condenser
generator
pump
coolant
moderator
control rods
shielding
pressure vessel
pellets of uranium dioxide

B.HWR
LWR
BWR
PWR
LOCA
ECCS
possibility of a reactor behaving like a bomb
Price-Anderson Act (and extensions)
nuclear parks
offshore siting
lifetime of uranium fuel supplies

C.mutation
background radiation
roentgen (R)
rad
dose
relative biological effectiveness (RBE)

D.Bikini Atoll (1954)
somatic effects
mrem
leukemia
linear relationship (between incidences of cancer and radiation
exposure)
Threshold hypothesis

E.unspent fuel
reprocessing center
short-lived radioactive isotopes
repository
nuclear wastes' volume
thermal power from wastes
transportation of wastes
geologic formations (e.g., salt formations)
ocean trenches
polar ice caps
outer space
nuclear transmutation

F.Cerenkov radiation
electric forces
nuclear forces

G.Hydrogen
Deuterium
Tritium
isotope

H.nucleon number (A)
neutron number (N)
proton number (Z)
A=N+Z
 AZXN

I.discrete energy states
emission of energy
absorption of energy

J.stability region
radioactivity
Beta particles (relate to electrons and "positrons")
Alpha particle
neutrino
antineutrino
half-life
curie (Ci)

K.E=mc2
atomic mass unit

L.X-ray
gamma ray

M..235U
.238U
.239Pu
Thorium
enriched fuel
low energy neutron
fast neutrons
nuclear "axe"
moderator
safety rods

N.Hiroshima and Nagasaki
radiation sickness, cancer, genetic defects
low-level radiation
Plutonium- inhaled or ingested
salt formations
periodic inspection of burial sites (nuclear priesthood)

O.Atomic Energy Act of 1946
Atomic Energy Commission (AEC)
AEC in 1967
1953 Atoms for Peace Plan
U.S.S. Nautilus
Savannah 1958

P.radon and radon daughter products
cancer or genetic mutations
Belgian Congo
Colorado, Climax Uranium Company
Salt Lake City- the Vitro (company) tailings

Q.safety through distance
safety through engineering
International Atomic Energy Agency (1958)

R."Windscale Pile Number One" in England
human thyroid gland
radioactive iodine
Russia during 1958 in the Ural Mountains
AEC's National Reactor Testing Station in 1961
Fermi Power Plant near Detroit
"China Syndrome"
Three Mile Island accident
The Rasmussen Report
The American Physical Society's counter analysis
Tennessee Valley Authorities' Brown's Ferry 1975

S.proliferation of nuclear weapons
1968 Treaty of Nonproliferation
nuclear terrorism and proliferation of nuclear weaponry
Orlando, Florida teenager (1974)

T.military controlled reprocessing plants
President Jimmy Carter and "Fast breeder reactor"
$2.2 billion Plutonium reprocessing plant in Tennessee
sodium

U.technocrats
voter initiatives
Public Services of Indiana (stock)

V.Gas-cooled reactors
Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor
fusion

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  Discuss the nuclear timetable presented by McCain (1989:28).
B.  What is fission?
C.  Define "critical mass."
D.  Recall the "Windscale Pile Number One" accident in England where the government destroyed thousands of gallons of milk.  Why such a concern over radioactive Iodine?
E.  If the 14 year old male in Orlando Florida had not known how to make an atomic bomb but did have Plutonium fuel, how could he have caused great injury to the public and what harm could the public have experienced?
F.  What is the difference between a critical- and supercritical-chain
reaction?
G.  Define "critical mass."
H.  What are the principal parts of a nuclear reactor core?
I.  How is a nuclear reactor used to generate electricity?
J.  What physical properties of salt make nuclear waste storage feasible in salt formations (abandoned salt mines, etc.)?
K.  Briefly compare the types and quantities of the following effluents from fossil-fueled plants and nuclear-fueled plants:  pollutants, nuclides.
L.  There are about 35 fission fragments and 18 actinide radioactive species in a spent fuel element.  Which of these are the most hazardous?  What are the two primary sources (production methods) of these wastes?
M.  Explain the following quote from Priest (1979:228, Fig. 10.8):

The energy-release process becomes self-sustaining when more
neutrons are generated than are lost in processes that compete with the
fission . . ..  The nuclear chain reaction is self-sustaining (profitable) only
when there is a critical size or critical mass . . ..  Therefore, a critical size
and arrangement is required which depends on such things as:

1.  the geometry of the fuel elements,
2.  the type of moderator,
3.  the purity of the fissionable material,
4.  the neutron energy used for the fission process,
5.  the type of material used to reflect neutrons back into the
system.

There are several fates of a neutron in a nuclear reactor . . .
(escape, absorption by impurity, escape and return by reflection, fission,
etc.).

N.  Particles lose energy through application of an appropriate type of force.  Alpha and Beta particles are charged.  They can lose energy through electric interactions with an atom's charged particles.  Although a gamma ray has no mass and no charge, it experiences electromagnetic forces when it traverses matter and hence loses energy.  Answer question I or II below.

I.  Briefly discuss the following three mechanisms for reducing a
gamma ray's energy:  Compton effect, Photoelectric effect, Pair
production.

(or)

II.  A neutron has no charge.  How can its energy be reduced?

4.  (fill in the blanks)  The _______ ____ ___ Treaty (19__) prohibited tests of nuclear devices in the atmosphere, space or oceans.  Although this treaty halted most of the atmospheric tests of nuclear devices, its effect was that many nuclear tests were conducted underground.

5.  In 1945, the U.S. military estimated it would take at least a year and about a million American lives to conquer _____ by conventional means. (fill in the blank)

6.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  Non-nuclear explosives are the conventional explosives, e.g., TNT, etc.
B.  Military logic can be based on inductive or deductive logic.
C.  GDP--Gross Domestic Product--is the total value of goods and services produced by a nation for internal consumption, i.e., the amount of wealth the nation produces in a year.
D.  GDP is about approximately GNP (Gross National Product) less the value of goods and services exported (foreign trade).
E.  Unlike the U.S.A., Britain, and the U.S.S.R., France, the latest nuclear power, did not sign the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963).
F.  The main strategic delivery systems for nuclear weapons are bombers, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
G.  Highly accurate delivery systems are more able to destroy an enemy's hardened weapons in a first strike than less accurate delivery systems which are used against soft targets, e.g., population centers.
H.  Although the Outer Space Treaty (1967) prohibited nuclear weapons from being placed into orbit around Earth, it did not prohibit antisatellite and other space-based weapons using conventional explosives.
I.  According to McCain, three kinds of study--technical, logical, and historical--are a part of understanding arms control.
J.  Although France and China never signed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963, they eventually ceased atmospheric testing of nuclear devices and moved their tests underground.
K.  According to McCain (1989:27), concern over radioactive fallout from atmospheric tests accounted for the first major success in arms control.

Short Essay (e.g., one page)

7.  Answer one of the below.
A.  Describe the primary effects of a nuclear detonation or nuclear war.
B.  What are the policy implications and controversies?  (Hint:  this is a followup question for the above question; refer to McCain)
C.  Summarize or outline McCain's arguments for arms control.

Brief (e.g., one page)

8.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- The Middle East (Israel).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

Note:  The midterm exam will include, among other things, one of the above questions or a variation thereof.

 

Assignment:  Read "Strategic Delivery Systems" in McCain (1989:39-66).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about the Middle East (Persian Gulf, Arabian Peninsula, Diego Garcia) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:65-89).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Part One:
Overcoming Nuclear Proliferation Problems
Not all of the nations in this world possess nuclear weapons.  The countries which have weapons have taken measures to prevent the spread or proliferation of nuclear weapons' technology and knowledge to other countries.

Radiation And Nuclear Bomb Tests
One means of slowing the spread of nuclear weapons technology to non-nuclear countries is by prohibiting nuclear weapons tests.  A convincing argument for banning weapons tests in the atmoshpere has been to decrease the health risks from fallout and radiation.

The Great Test Ban Debate
(Outline of the 1972 article by Herbert F. York in Scientific American)
Is the time ripe for a treaty prohibiting all tests of nuclear weapons?  York says yes.
Two Questions- 1.  Verification of compliance, 2. (York focuses here) Test-Ban effects on National Security

Opponents
Edward Teller- Disparity in knowledge leads to disparity in power later.
ABM- Russians rested at appropriate altitudes in 1960-61; Moscow ABM, Galosh System.

Blackout phenomenon

Sentinel- U.S. ABM not deployed
Polaris- 3 reentry vehicles not independently targetable
Poseidan- MIRVed=10
Poseidan warhead could not have been developed under a comprehensive ban.  York says Polaris warhead could have been adapted to fit polaris missile.
Nuclear testing by U.S. & U.S.S.R.- testing continued but went underground (see p. 7 graph in article)!  Result of 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty.
Testing- pure fusion bombs and high ratio of fusion to fission.
1.  No 3rd revolution
2.  progress
yield-to-weight ratio
hardening weapons against interception
better fits to delivery systems
3.  limited test ban in 1963 didn't do much but comprehensive ban would have done more in 1963 if "enacted"
4.  but success of 1963 act=
cleaner air
political climate conducive to arms control discussion
therefore 1963 ban has been a success

York says the comprehensive treaty is in grasp so "go for it."

"Danger- Nuclear War"
(outline of advertisement in The New York Times, Sunday, March 2, 1980)
An open letter to encourage President Carter and Chairman Brezhnev to be friends and make the world a peaceful/safe place to live.
Ponder the nuclear explosion-  "The single bomb dropped on Hiroshima had the explosive force of appx. 15,000 tons (15 kilotons) of TNT.  Today the U.S. has over 30,000 nuclear bombs and Russia has 20,000.  Nuclear weapons in present day arsenals range in size from one kiloton to 20 megatons (20 million tons of TNT).  All the bombs dropped during the eight and a half years the U.S. fought in Vietnam were equivalent to four million tons of TNT (4 megatons).
A 20 megaton thermonuclear bomb exploded on a clear day at ground level on a large East-Coast city would create a fireball one and a half miles in diameter, with temperatures of twenty to thirty million degrees Fahrenheit.  Everything in the down town area, the streets and the earth below, and all living things would be vaporized, leaving a crater several hundred feet deep.
At six miles from the epicenter, all people would be instantly killed by a huge silent heat flash traveling at the speed of light.  Glass would melt, and buildings would collapse when hit by a supersonic shock wave and winds of 300 miles per hour.
Within a ten mile radius . . . the blast wave, 180 mph winds, and fires would inflict almost total casualties with at least 50% dead and 40% injured.  Even at 20 miles from the epicenter, 50% of the people would be killed or injured by the direct thermal radiation and blast pressures.  A single nuclear device would result in tens of thousands of severe burn injuries.  The entire U.S. has intensive care facilities for fewer than 2,000 such cases.
Many would be killed by random spontaneous fires fueled by oil storage tanks, natural gas lines gasoline and LNG tanks.  These fires might coalesce into an enormous fire-storm 1200 square miles in area, fanned by 100-200 mile per hour winds, creating temperatures capable of cooking and asphyxiating those in shelters.
Survivors of the fires would be exposed to lethal or sublethal doses of radiation from short-term fallout.  Even mild winds of 20 miles per hour would carry fallout as far as 150 miles where everyone exposed could receive a lethal dose within 24 hours.  This would cause acute radiation sickness, with decreased resistance to infection, and would produce an increased incidence of still births, fetal malformations, leukemia, and cancer.  In subsequent generations genetic damage would probably appear.
Hospitals would be destroyed and most medical personnel would be among the dead and injured.  There would be millions of corpses.  Food, air, and water would be contaminated.  Survivors would die from starvation, dehydration, radiation sickness and infections.
In an all-out nuclear exchange, all major population and industrial centers would be hit, both in the U.S. and U.S.S.R.  Such an exchange could be complete in one hour, and could destroy most life in the northern hemisphere.  Worldwide fallout would result, with possible destruction of the ozone layer, changes in the earth's temperature and mutation of crops.  It would be different world afterwards, colder, harsher, and contaminated by radiation for thousands of years.  The number of deaths would break scales of comparison.

"Nuclear War"
In "Nuclear War:  What If . . . ?," by Richard Knox (Science 80, May/June, pp. 32-34), it is noted that twenty years ago American families were encouraged to build and stock a backyard fallout shelter.  But as people learned of the instant and the aftermath of a 20-megaton nuclear attack on Boston:  the awesome blast damage, the even more devastating thermal radiation and subsequent fire storm, the prompt and delayed radiation effects, the hopelessness of medical rescue in the face of near total destruction of medical resources and the 1.5 million living casualties with horrible burns and trauma, radiation sickness, and raging infections.  But if there were to be a Soviet attack on U.S. population centers today, no one believes it would come as a single 20-megaton hit out of the blue . . ..  Henry W. Kendall (Union of Concerned Scientists) says the Soviet Union could achieve "assured destruction" of this country by targeting 71 of the 119 largest U.S. metropolitan areas.  This less than all out attack would consume only about ten percent of the estimated Soviet strategic arsenal.  Such an attack would kill half the U.S. population within 30 days and injure tens of millions.  Two-thirds of the nation's industrial capacity and 98 percent of its key industries, including energy and transport, would have been destroyed.  Only ten Soviet missiles with MIRVs carrying 80 warheads could wipe out two-thirds of America's petroleum refining capacity.  But Russia, with her more concentrated industrial, energy, and population centers, is a vulnerable target for U.S. retaliation.  Even if all land-based missiles were obliterated, a U.S. counter-strike could be accomplished by nearly 400 submarine-based missiles and more than 100 Strategic Air Command bombers.  This would be a devastating blow, killing an estimated 20 to 100 million Soviet citizens.  Then, too, it is easier to sever Soviet lifelines.  For example, the U.S.S.R. is more dependent on railroads and on a few large pipelines than this country.  A map depicts the major population centers in the continental U.S. and the air bases and missile sites that are the most likely targets in any total nuclear attack by the Soviets.  The map depicts fallout patterns after the attack.

Nuclear War Would Mean Unprecedented Deaths
(Source- The Pennsylvania Campaign For a Nuclear Weapons Freeze)
!!FOOTNOTE 4:Estimate by U.S. National Security Council as reported by Penna. Campaign for a Nuclear Weapons Freeze during about the year 1984.

!!FOOTNOTE 5:See note above.
In past wars- American Deaths:  Civil War=500,000; WWI=250,000; WWII=400,000; Korea and Vietnam=100,000; for a total of 1,161,000; but in a nuclear war- American deaths=140,000,000.  Soviet Deaths: WWI=3,700,000; Civil War 1918=8,000,000; WWII=20,000,000; for a total of 31,700,000; but in a nuclear war- Soviet deaths=113,000,000.

"EMP- A Sleeping Electronic Dragon"
(Source:  Janet Raloff in Science News, Vol. 119, May 16, 1981, pp. 300-302, 314-315.)
"Our growing dependence on solid-state electronics may leave us vulnerable to a potentially devastating type of nuclear fallout."  "A type of fallout . . . that bathes the entire nation, and within a fraction of a second people coast to coast find themselves without power, without telecommunications, without computers . . ."  and all as a result of a phenomenon which accompanies a nuclear explosion and is known as Electro-Magnetic-Pulse.  About one millionth of the power of an atomic blast is expressed as EMP.  "Gamma rays emitted by nuclear reactions and gamma rays produced by neutron interactions with bomb residues and other materials are largely responsible for the processes that create EMP.  As the gamma rays interact with materials, they produce an ionized region about the detonation point. 'The negatively charged electrons move outward faster than the much heavier, positively charged ions,' says Samuel Glasstone and Philip Dolan in their book, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons.  This initially sets up a separation of charges, wit regions nearer the blast point bearing a net positive charge while those farther away build a net negative charge.  Charge separation creates an electric field that can attain its maximum value in about one hundred millionth of a second . . ..  In surface or near-surface blasts, the region of peak EMP hazard is restricted to a range of only about two to five miles from ground zero.  For higher blast--those occurring at altitudes up to 19 miles- the EMP-hazard range will increase to a nine-mile ground radius.  True high-altitude blasts are another matter Unlike the relatively localize EMP effects experienced with surface bursts, high-altitude detonations--those occurring 19 miles up or higher--blanket a line-of-sight penumbra on earth.  For a blast of 50 miles up, the affected ground radius on earth would be roughly 600 miles; at 100 miles up, the ground radius would be 900 miles.  And for an explosion centered over the country at an altitude of 200 miles, the entire continental U.S. . . . would be drenched in a bath of EMP."  EMP fallout- "its effects are the opposite of those of the neutron bomb:  EMP cripples or kills electronic equipment but leaves humans standing--very much alive and vulnerable."
For information on "hardening" against EMP, refer to the original article.

Peacetime uses of nuclear explosives
1.  As a deterrent- the capability which the U.S. has to retaliate against an aggressor discourages would be "bullies" from bothering America.  Deterrence assumes we know who to retaliate against.  Thus our capability for deterrence may decline when clandestine terrorists acquire the ability to use nuclear devices against their targets.
2. The application of nuclear power to enhance the recovery of natural gas has met with success.  In the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, for example, gas is trapped molecule by molecule in sandstone.  In 1967 atomic blasts were used to fracture the sandstone to release gas.  After a waiting period of about two years to allow the most dangerous radioactive particles to decay, the gas was tapped.  By conventional methods the recovery of gas trapped in sandstone is about forty times less efficient than the atomic blast technique.  Estimates indicate that about 215 more atomic explosions would be needed to fully develop the Colorado natural gas site. (source- David H. Davis- Energy Politics, New York: St. Martin's Press, 1978).
3.  Perhaps nuclear devices will be "exploded" in space as a means to power a ballistic missile defense system, e.g., a "star wars" system of lasers.

Superguns
In recent years, various improvements on traditional cannons or guns have modernized artillery.  In an era when precision guided weapons are not readily available to less developed or developing countries, sophisticated artillery is available.  Mr. Sargese Sargganellian, a Miami based arms dealer, commenting about the world's center for arms dealing said:  "All guns point from Brussels."  Brussels is one center for transfers of weapons and weapons' technology (i.e., knowledge).
It was in Brussels that a new supergun idea was being transferred to Iraq.  This idea involved recent innovations on the supergun developed in Nazi Germany during WWII.  The new supergun idea, conceived by Dr. Gerald V. Bull, was low technology, relatively speaking, vis a vis precision guided weapons.  Dr. Gerald V. Bull, a former Canadian, and his associate Mr. Dennis Lyster, sought research and development funds from various countries.  According to one source, they had a $25 million contract with China.
Reviewers of knowledge about superguns include several people, e.g., Dr. John Pike (Astra Defense Systems), Dr. Charles Murphy (Ballistics specialist, U.S. Govt.), Christopher Foss, Ed. (Janes Artillery and . . .), Congressman Wolpe (U.S. Rep. serving on an arms committee), Terry Gander (an artillery expert), and Fred Quelle (a U.S. Govt. Defense Physicist).  If the U.S.A. would have promoted Dr. Bull's plans for a supergun, it would have cost about $10 million for his intercontinental cannon.  According to one source, a projectile from the supergun "cannot be shot down by a Patriot Missile."  When the Pentagon's decision process did not favor acquiring Dr. Bull's supergun, he negotiated with another customer- Iraq.  Parts for a supergun were to be made in different countries.  Construction of a sub-continental supergun would very probably have been completed in Iraq if progress on the weapon had not halted by been the Mossad (Israeli intelligence service).
Because a supergun would likely lack the ability to precisely throw an explosive device, it would most likely serve as a weapon of terror.  For example, a supergun which throws conventional explosives at cities would result in modest damage to random sites because it lacks the precision to hit preselected military or civilian targets.  But the lower accuracy of a supergun can be offset if it throws nuclear explosives with vastly greater explosive yields than conventional explosives.
For more information on this topic, refer to The Man Who Made The Supergun, Frontline, WGBH Educational Foundation, Boston, to request this PBS Video or the Frontline Transcript.

<>insert Atomic Bombs with drawing
Atomic Bombs:  RULE ONE- don't create a critical mass until you want an uncontrolled chain reaction (boom).  RULE TWO- when you do want an explosion, bring nuclear fuel pieces (high grade material only) together quickly so as to have a critical mass.  RULE THREE- factors of importance include type of fuel and quality, e.g., purity; shape or geometry, e.g., a blanket of fuel, once rolled up, has a greater probability of fissioning; time- bring things together quickly.  NOTE- none of the drawings show a critical mass situation since it is not recommended; mushrooms may be hazardous to our health.  FUEL- to obtain fuel other than by stealing or buying it, a fuel processing technique is described in the next lesson (proliferation); waste from nuclear power plants can be processed to obtain the actinides and these may be separated chemically to obtain fuel for a bomb.  Literature is widely available for fuel processing and bomb making.
KEY:nuclear fuelchemical explosivecasing

GUN METHOD

 

MODIFIED GUN

DetailsMantle 238U
(sphere)(or Lithium Deuteride
if you want a thermo-
nuclear explosion)
FUEL- 235U or 239Pu
BATTERY
ELECTRICAL TRIGGER
HINTS:  CHEMICAL EXPLOSIVE- perhaps potassium chlorate and sulfur and charcoal or something more stable.
HEAT ELEMENTS- perhaps from shattered light bulbs.
TRIGGER- rigged or on a timer (switch lets electricity heat elements which fire chemical explosive to force fuel pieces to center of sphere to obtain critical mass which then explodes).

<>insert newest version . . .
The ANF Reactor:  A Solution To World Energy and Nuclear Proliferation Problems? (from energy syllabus 1)

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):
The Middle East:  (Persian Gulf, Arabian Peninsula, Diego Garcia)
As you know, early in 1991 the U.S.A. and allied forces freed Kuwait.  This effort was aided by the strategic location and facilities of the island Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  The word "LASER" is composed of the uppercase letters from the following words which define it:  Light Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation.  Although a laser's light can be so intense that it can burn through, for example, a thick sheet of steel, less intense lasers are more commonly encountered.  Lasers are useful for defining straight lines from a source to a target, for pointing at targets, and for communications (i.e., lasers can be modulated to carry messages).

Questions:

Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.nuclear warheads mounted on strategic delivery systems
nuclear warheads for use in regional theaters of war or battlefields
strategic triad (bombers, ICBMs, SLBMs)
ICBM
SLBM

B.B-52
Soviet Bear or Bison
flying at less than the speed of sound
anti-aircraft missiles
ALCM

C.missile gap
land-based missiles
thirty minutes or less (intercontinental flight time of ICBMs)
ballistic trajectory (gravity)
penetrability (speed of  flight)

D.bombers' vulnerabilities
ICBMs' vulnerabilities
SLBMs' vulnerabilities
C3I
SSBN
"stand off" (Hint:  McCain (1989:45)

E.SLCM
MIRV
CEP
RVs
DVs

F.MX
Minuteman III
SS-18
"window of vulnerability"
5:1 "crosstargeting" (worse-off scenario; no bombers, no SLBMs)

G.first strike
crisis instability (and MIRVed missiles)
multiple protective shelters (shell game)
mobile land-based missiles
U.S. Midgetman (single warhead; mobility)

H.counterforce-capable SLBMs
Trident II SLBM with D-5 warhead
strategic nuclear balance
strategic launchers

I.U.S. Titan
Minuteman II
Minuteman III
MX
SS-17
SS-18
SS-19

J.throw weight
accuracy vs. required megatonnage (i.e., yield)
ASW
Murmansk (choke point formed by Greenland, Iceland, and the Faeroe
Islands)
Vladivostok (choke points formed by the islands of Japan)

K.underwater sonar equipment
deepwater posts
retaliatory strike
BMD
ABM

L.Star Wars
leakproof defense
cost effective weapon
Soviet Premier Aleksei Kosygin
limit of one cluster of land-based interceptors

M.Kwajalein testing range in the Pacific (June, 1984)
layered defense
high altitude interceptors to destroy ballistic missile warheads in space
before re-entry (long range radar)
low altitude interceptors
LOADS (second shield)

N.Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI or "Star Wars")
space defense station
mutual assured destruction (MAD)
space-based BMD

O.supergun
ANF Reactor
Nuclear Proliferation
EMP
line-of-sight penumbra
"LASER"

P.Atomic Bomb
critical mass
uncontrolled chain reaction
nuclear fuel pieces (high grade material only)
shape or geometry

Q.mushroom
chemical explosive
GUN METHOD
MODIFIED GUN
Mantle of 238U
Lithium Deuteride
 235U
 239Pu

R.Verification of compliance
Test-Ban
Galosh System
Blackout phenomenon
Sentinel (US ABM not deployed)
Polaris (3 reentry vehicles not independently targetable)
Poseidan (MIRVed=10)

S.high ratio of fusion to fission
fireball
temperatures of twenty to thirty million degrees Fahrenheit
epicenter
huge silent heat flash traveling at the speed of light
supersonic shock wave
winds of 300 miles per hour
fires
severe burn injuries (intensive care facilities)
asphyxiation
lethal or sublethal doses of radiation from short-term fallout
most medical personnel would be among the dead and injured
contamination of food, air, and water
backyard fallout shelter

2.  The term _________ (fill in the blank) is invoked by Arms Control experts when recognizing:  the U.S.S.R.'s ICBM force is more highly MIRVed than the U.S.'s; the size or yield of Soviet ICBMs is larger than the U.S.'s; the U.S.'s submarines are of superior quality relative to Soviet submarines.  Hint:  Refer to your reading assignment in McCain.

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  According to McCain (1989:40), "The bomber is an excellent delivery vehicle for retaliation, but useless if you want to strike first."  Is this statement no longer true since the U.S.A. has deployed stealth aircraft?  (Discuss)
B.  Discuss:  "The U.S.S.R. constructed a BMD force of 64 interceptors around Moscow, while the United States decided to deploy none at all."  Source:  McCain (1989:59).
C.  Is the best strategic offense a good strategic defense?
D.  Some experts have said there will be "no 3rd revolution."  Describe what this means in terms of progress in yield-to-weight ratio, hardening weapons against interception, better fits to delivery systems, potential or speculative advances in . . ..
E.  Besides using nuclear explosives during peacetime as a deterrent against aggression or war, nuclear explosives have also been used to enhance the recovery of natural gas.  Why doesn't the natural gas ignite from the nuclear blast?
F.  How many have died in various wars in the U.S. and the Soviet Union?

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  According to McCain (1989:39), the numbers of strategic nuclear warheads in the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. is about 12,000 and 11,000 respectively.
B.  Measures of strength concerning the nuclear balance include strategic launchers, nuclear warheads, overall megatonage, accuracy, and a variety of quality considerations.
C.  Proponents of a space-based ballistic missile defense system claim the system would offer substantial safety from nuclear attack through, for example, the use of high-energy lasers which, directed by the latest generation of computers, would overcome countermeasures--suchs as the spinning of ICBM's in flight--to destroy conceivably thousands of warheads during the few minutes between launching and reentry over a target's territory.
D.  According to Edward Teller, a disparity in knowledge leads to disparity in power later.
E.  About one millionth of the power of an atomic blast is expressed as EMP.
F.  Acute radiation sickness results in decreased resistance to infection, and can produce an increased incidence of still births, fetal malformations, leukemia, cancer, and genetic damage to subsequent generations.
G.  The Limited Test Ban treaty of 1963 is deemed a success because it resulted in "cleaner air" and in a political climate conducive to arms control discussion.
H.  The single atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima had the explosive force of about 15,000 tons (15 kilotons) of TNT.
I.  All the conventional bombs dropped during the eight and a half years the U.S. fought in Vietnam were equivalent to four million tons of TNT (4 megatons).
J.  In an all-out nuclear exchange which could be complete in one hour, worldwide fallout would result, with possible destruction of the ozone layer, changes in the earth's temperature and mutation of crops.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Answer one of the below.
A.  Who should make the decision to use or condemn nuclear power in America and what impact will either choice have on the various societies and sub-societies of America?
B.  What physical properties of salt make nuclear waste storage feasible in salt formations (abandoned salt mines, etc.)?  Where should nuclear waste be "dumped"?
C.  How would the development of a technology based on the principles of the ANFR impact a) the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and b) nuclear waste?  (Hint on b- by my calculations, the ANFR is sort of a "nuclear garbage disposer.")
D.  Of the forty nine utility companies building nuclear power plants in the U.S.A., seven now list their nuclear construction projects as deferred or cancelled (source:  Value Line- Selection & Opinion, February 3, 1984, p. 650).  The price of common stock for Public Services of Indianna tumbled from $27 per share to about $8 3/4 in just three months when investors learned that the twin reactor construction project was under scrutiny from a panel appointed by the Governor; by the third week in January, 1984, the utility company gave up and cancelled the project even though much of the $2.3 billion needed for the project was already invested:  unit #1 is 56% complete ($1.3 billion invested); unit #2 is 35% complete ($.6 billion invested) (source:  The Value Line Investment Survey, Ratings and Reports, January 27, 1984 p. 737 and Nov. 18, 1983, p. 1289).  As soon as investors get wind of trouble in these nuclear projects, they dump their equity holdings and move to a safer, more stable stock.  "Utilities with nuclear plants under construction are in the Wall Street doghouse" (Value Line, Ratings & Reports, Jan. 27, 1984, p. 701), so even if America wants nuclear power, who will pay to have the plants built?  (Discuss the future of nuclear power in America.)

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- The Middle East:  (Persian Gulf, Arabian Peninsula, Diego Garcia).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

 

Assignment:  Read "Nuclear Weapons In The European Theater" in McCain (1989:67-84).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about the Middle East (Afghanistan, India and the Sikhs) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:90-126).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

"Arms Control Is Changing"
(Outline of an article by _)
1.  Interactions Between Arms Control and other political and social issues
exchange of scholars
trade agreements
emigration policies/human rights
de´tente
national interest (withdrawal provision of 1963 Limited Nuclear Test Ban
Treaty)

2.  Implications of increasingly complex world scene
France, China, India pursue independent policies
3rd world countries resent domination
Shift of wealth due to oil
Non-Proliferation Treaty- Big/Small (big countries update and expand
arsenals whereas small countries have agreed to do nothing)

3.  Difficulties in the negotiation process zero-sum game (you take at my expense) vs. non-zero-sum game (mutual benefit)

4.  Need for more effective international organizations

5.  Greater unilateral control (over one's own military forces)

6.  Impacts of New Technology and the qualitative Arms Race, i.e., bombs vs. smart bombs

"Arms Control--What do we do next?"
(Outline of an article by _)
1.  continue to negotiate for more effective arms control measure
2.  build de´tente to alleviate tension
3.  reach consensus on what constitutes national security
4.  and then control our own military programs

Historical Overview of Arms Control Agreements
(Outline of an article by _)
(Not a complete statement of arms control agreements)
1.  Test moratorium of 1958-1961.
2.  Antarctic Treaty (December 1, 1959)- demilitarizes the Antarctic.
3.  Hot-Line Agreement (1963, 1971)- the "red phone" communications link between the U.S. & the U.S.S.R. was established for use in emergencies.
4.  Limited Test-Ban Treaty of 1963.
5.  Outer Space Treaty (1967)- no nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction in space.
6.  Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America (1967-1968).
7.  Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968- no transfer of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear weapon countries.
8.  Seabed Arms Control Treaty of 1971
9.  Biological Weapons Convention of 1972
10.  SALT Treaty (1972)
11.  SALT II (not ratified by U.S. Senate)

Three Questions of Strategy
(Source: The Nuclear Question by Michael Mandelbaum, p. 8-9)
"In making a strategy, a state must settle upon answers to three questions.  What are the political purposes to which its military force will be put?  How is that force to be deployed to serve those purposes? And how will the force be used once hostilities have begun?

Flexible Response (Source:  Mandelbaum, p. 90)
"Flexible response was the second tenet of the strategic critique of the Eisenhower administration, of which the need for a survivable retaliatory force was the first.  Without a versatile, flexible military force, McNamara said, adopting the logic of graduated deterrence as the strategists had propounded it in the 1950s, 'the Soviets may well conclude that they can use lesser forms of military and political aggression without the danger of an all-out nuclear response.'  If on the other hand the NATO nations had prepared themselves in advance to fight nonnuclear conflicts, the level of violence might be kept within bounds even after war had broken out. 'Escalation to a higher level of war,' McNamara said, 'is probably more likely to occur if we go into these limited actions 'ill equipped and ill prepared' to support the political positions and political objectives that have been previously established.'"

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):
The Middle East (Afghanistan, India and the Sikhs)
During the recent war in Afghanistan, an effect regardless of Soviet intentions was depopulating Afghan regions near the Soviet Union.  Tribal loyalties influence warfare in Afghanistan, e.g., the supply lines from Pakistan for the resistance movement.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  De´tente is a word used by the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. to counter the problems of the arms race.  According to Colen (1988:67), de´tente calls for "Negotiations for arms control agreements; Taking steps that would build mutual confidence, such as notification of troop movements and maneuvers; Regular communications to establish a system that could be used in times of special tension; Expansion of relations in such areas as trade, credit, and consumer technology."  De´tente discounts the value of technological solutions to political problems.

Questions:

Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.exchange of scholars
trade agreements
emigration policies/human rights
de´tente
shift of wealth due to oil

B.zero-sum game (you take at my expense)
non-zero-sum game (mutual benefit)
greater unilateral control
qualitative arms race
bombs vs. smart bombs

C.quantitative arms race
Test moratorium of 1958-1961
Antarctic Treaty (December 1, 1959)
Hot-Line Agreement (1963, 1971)
Limited Test-Ban Treaty of 1963

D.Outer Space Treaty (1967)
Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America (1967-
1968)
Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968
Seabed Arms Control Treaty of 1971
Biological Weapons Convention of 1972

E.SALT Treaty (1972)
SALT II (not ratified by U.S. Senate)
Flexible Response
survivable retaliatory force
logic of graduated deterrence

F.strategically deliverable
battlefield weapons (miniaturization)
Intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF)
space weapons
strategic offensive arms

G.IRBMs (land-based)
MIRVed missiles (British and French)
logic of equal security
concept of parity
"extended deterrence"

H.nuclear umbrella
nuclear "trigger"
multilateral nuclear force (MLF)
Pershing II IRBM
Tomahawk ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM)

I.CEP
"decapitating" weapon
short-range INF
"trigger-happy" effect of intermediate-range missiles

2.  During the recent war in Afghanistan, an effect regardless of Soviet intentions was ____________ Afghan regions near the Soviet Union (fill in the blank).

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  Explain the following quotation from McCain (1989:74):  "Where deterrence of a conventional onslaught is the objective, extended deterrence means the threat to use nuclear weapons first."
B.  What is meant by "The U.S. INF count has been "cooked" to minimize U.S. totals and maximize Soviet totals?"  Compare this with the Soviet INF count.  Hint:  see McCain (1989:79).
C. A main point in an article "The Ecological Effects of Radiation" indicates that lifeforms with less complicated genetics, e.g., simple weeds, are less affected by radiation than more complex plants such as trees.  What are the implications for humans?
D.  What is (Explain) "ionizing radiation"? (sources other than the readings are permitted)
E.  What is the meaning and significance of underground nuclear weapons testing?
4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  Two extremes in weapons' delivery capability are represented by battlefield and intercontinental delivery vehicles.
B.  According to McCain (1989:68), the Soviet Union considers a nuclear delivery system strategic if one nuclear power can use it to attack the homeland of another.
C.  According to McCain (1989:68), the U.S. considers a nuclear delivery system strategic if it can cross the intercontinental distance between North America and Eurasia--about 3,400 miles.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Answer one of the below.
A.  Does the U.S.A. need intermediate range missiles in Europe?  (Discuss)
B.  Herbert F. York, in "The Great Test-Ban Debate" argues convincingly for a treaty prohibiting all tests of nuclear weapons.  He focuses on test-ban effects on national security but ignores the question of verification of compliance.  His proposals overlook the fact that an enemy can hardly discern between a peaceful underground explosion (such as for mining purposes) and underground military tests.  A) In what ways could you overcome this problem of compliance?  B) Wouldn't a comprehensive test ban be meaningless anyway, considering that there has never been nor is there likely to be a "third revolution."

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- The Middle East (Afghanistan, India and the Sikhs).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

 

Assignment:  Read "Strategic Doctrine In The West" in McCain (1989:85-116).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Africa (Libya and Chad, Sudan, Somalia and the Horn) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:127-141).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Strategic Arms Limitations Talks
A.  SALT I
B.  After SALT I

The Salt Negotiations
(Outline of the article by Herbert Scoville, Jr.)
When the article was being prepared (Aug., 1977), the Russians were developing a group of ICBM's with large payloads and the U.S. was developing plans for replacing the Minuteman missiles with more accurate ones.  The U.S. and U.S.S.R. achieved the first broad-term arms control agreement in 1972 and before Salt II was signed, a five year interim agreement was about to run out.  The Vladivostok Accords were a step to set the Salt II agreements.  These Accords set numerical ceilings on the major strategic weapons:  Bombers and missiles.  Although a ceiling was not placed on the number of MIRVs a missile could be fitted with, a ceiling was placed on the number of missiles that could be fitted with MIRVs.  Actually, the ceilings set by these accords were so high that the ceilings were not constraining.  Since the accords dealt with numbers rather than technology, a new arms race was in the making- a qualitative as opposed to quantitative race.
The Carter administration set out to make alternative proposals, and in March, 1977, Secretary of State Cyrus Vance went to Moscow with a "Comprehensive proposal" and a "Deferral proposal."  Both proposals were rejected by the Russians, the deferral because they could not accept that proposals deferral of the Cruise missile issue, however, the ceilings set by that particular proposal were acceptable to them.  The comprehensive proposal, which sought to limit the Quantitative arms race by reducing existing arsenals and limiting the qualitative arms race by restricting the upgrading and replacing of current weapons, was rejected because it supposedly froze the United States' strategic superiority.  After the initial rejection, talks were resumed within a three part framework drawn up on Geneva in May, 1977.  The provisions of the Comprehensive proposal were discussed by Mr. Scoville because of the idea to discuss current arms control issues; The interrelations between qualitative and quantitative arms control and the difficulties in establishing arms control when technology levels are being increased seemingly daily.  Some of these current arms control issues involved in the original comprehensive proposal involve provisions which encompass two categories.  A.  Involving limits on the number of strategic delivery vehicles;  B.  Involving restrictions on the development, testing and deployment of new weapons.

Some points of interest-
1.  The comprehensive proposal would have reduced the total number of delivery vehicles (ICBM's, SLBM's and strategic bombers).
2.  The U.S.S.R. concentrates on larger ICBM's with greater payloads (e.g., the Soviet SS-18 can carry 8 warheads while the U.S. Minuteman III carries three).
3.  The U.S. has a vastly stronger strategic bomber arsenal, being able to carry up to 10 weapons, whether in the form of bombs, cruise missiles, or short range air-to-surface missiles.  One of the large issues that looms in the face of these negotiations is:  whether or not the Soviet medium-range supersonic "Backfire" bomber is a strategic weapon.
4.  Because the proposal was designed to limit the quantitative arms race, it would require the Soviets to reduce their heavy ICBM force from some 308 to 150, a strong voice of protest was raised from the Russians because the U.S. has no heavy ICBM force, choosing rather to work with SLBM's and air-launched cruise missiles, therefore being a one sided restriction.
5.  Under the proposal, the Russians would very probably have a 2 to 1 lead in the number of ICBM warheads, the yield of their warheads would be about one megaton, compared with the 200 kilotons of the American warheads.  However, the Russian dominance in warheads would be made up by the U.S. superiority in accuracy and more than likely reliability.  Also, the U.S. submarine missile forces outnumber that of our Russian counterparts, approximately two or three to one.  And just as a matter of outside interest, anti-submarine warfare technology is very clearly in favor of the US.  The Soviets just do not have the ASW capabilities that the U.S. has with its P-3 Orion and S-3 Viking.  A P-3, by dropping a sonobuoy in the vicinity of a Russian submarine can determine what class submarine it is, and where its parts were made.
6.  The proposal set forth that modernization and replacement of ICBM'S would be forbidden as well as the forbidding of mobile ICBM's and SLBM's.  It would ban strategic cruise missiles which were defined as having a range of 2500 km. or greater.  The stringent requirements on ICBM's was designed to keep either nation from acquiring a counter-force ability.
7.  The proposal would freeze the two nations qualitative arms race.  Two American ICBM developments would be directly affected as a result.  The new Mk. 12-A warhead and the NS-20 guidance system, to replace the warheads on the Minuteman III missile.  Also, the mobile MX system, as a replacement for the Minuteman systems.  The MX would be extremely hard to knock out, and would provide a very definite counter-force advantage.  The Soviets themselves would be constrained.  Under the proposal, improvements of the SS-17, SS-18, SS-19 and probably the SS-16 would be denied, preventing the Russians from obtaining a counter-force threat to the Minuteman systems.
8.  The fact that we are racing the Soviets in ways to obtain a "lead" in an arms race has no real military or political meaning, because both sides now contain the ability to destroy the other in "any conceivable nuclear conflict."

Details from "The SALT Negotiations" by Herbert Scoville, Jr.-Scoville describes and analyzes the original comprehensive proposal put forward by U.S. in Moscow, and he demonstrates
A.  complex interrelations of numerical and qualitative controls
B.  difficulty of establishing meaningful controls because of improvements in technology (number and megatonnage of missiles no longer effective measure of strategic supremacy)

Recent SALT negotiations characterized by controls sought on-
1.  number of strategic delivery vehicles
2.  restrictions on the
a.  development
b.  testing
c.  deployment of new weapons.

Note that #1 leaves some flexibility for each side to allocate its forces among:
ICBMs
SLBMs
bombers
and flexibility in bomb loads
number MIRVs on a missile.

Requesting Soviets to cut back on heavy ICBMs provoked a strong reaction from them because U.S. has none (e.g., a zero sum game).
Limiting MIRVed missiles (550) harder for Soviets than for U.S. because they rely more heavily on ICBMs.
Forward based U.S. bombers in Europe that can reach U.S.S.R. (medium range bombers).  U.S. says not strategic but to support NATO allies.

Backfire bomber
3500 mile combat radius
reach U.S. only by
1. flying subsonically from arctic bases in U.S.S.R. on a one-way
suicide mission
2. landing in a 3rd country
3. or refueling in flight . . ..  Hence- is backfire a strategic weapon?
U.S.S.R. says not strategic but is for peripheral targets (China &
Western Europe)

Strategic weapon- can reach the other countries territory

Tactical weapon- can't

If MIRVed above 550 allowed, within range of counterforce attack capability with some improvements in accuracy.
Counterforce attack (see p. 5 of article) effective counterforce attack  ineffective counterforce attack and effective retaliation

Arms Control and SALT (I & II)
Arms control:
reduce probability of war
reduce costs of preparations for war
reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

Example:
Partial Nuclear Test Ban of 1963- international treaty that prohibits nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, in the oceans & in outerspace
nuclear testing leads to contamination of atmosphere; this alarmed biologists
treaty only moderates arms race
Pres. Kennedy: "an important first step- a step toward peace, a step toward reason, a step away from war."

National Security and the Nuclear-Test Ban
(Weisner & York, Sci. Am. Oct. 1964)
-WWII Blockbuster to thermonuclear bomb, increase in power by a million
-Interhemispheric transport of weapons of mass destruction has shrunk from 20 hours for 300 mph B-29 to 30 minute flight time of the ballistic missile
-computer, increased information-processing capacity by as much as a million compared to human (labor) handling

"Technological surprise presents the primary danger"---Not so since improvement by orders of magnitude in these areas won't make much difference.  Likewise with bombs therefore no need to test anymore.  Hence support the ban, even a "total" ban.

Survival from a missile attack
1. hardening
2. concealment
3. numbers

hard targets
soft targets

kill probability proportional to N (number of missiles), r (reliability), Rk (radius of damage per accuracy of missiles)

Technical improvements, such as "neutron bomb," will do little to improve our position therefore BAN TESTING

Arms Race:  increase military power, decrease national security therefore concerned.

"It is our considered professional judgement that this dilemma has no technical solution."
treaties- policing and inspection procedures
Lay foundations of mutual confidence for proceeding to actual disarmament

Defense -> large scale defense of civilian population
passive modes of defense (shelters)
active modes of defense (antimissile missiles)

Contemporary revolution in the technology of war.
1.  overbalance scales in favor of attacker rather than defender
2.  WWII interception of about 10% of attacking force gave victory to defending force in Battle of Britain yet if U.S. attacked by Soviet missiles, and we knocked out 90% of incoming missiles, we would lose.

(A penetration rate of only 10% would give complete success to the offense. (attrition rate of 90%))

(more on) Defense against thermonuclear attack is impossible:
-Eve of attack- offense can "point up" its forces//defense must be on alert for years (and be ready to fire within the few minutes available after the first early warning)
-pick targets- attacker can pick its targets & ignore others//defense must protect all possible important targets
-free ride- offense may attack the defense itself- then, as soon as one weapon gets through, the rest have a free ride
-mantle of secrecy- magnitude and duration of these enterprises, whether defensive or offensive, practically assure that no system can reach full deployment in secrecy
example- stealth plane
-late start in race- defense must start race a lap behind (obsolescence of two major defense systems)
Sage- available (if continued) in '63 but good only against 1950's offensive
Nike-Zeus- antimissile system-//won't work- light decoy, heavy decoy, MIRVs

Strategic Arms Limitation After SALT I
(Outline of article by Paul Doty)
Routes to Limitation of Strategic Arms
1.  Control number of weapons (quantity)- SALT I- ceiling on ABM, missiles, SLBMs & SLBM subs.  Ceilings and reductions usually easily verifiable.
2.  Control over weapons improvements (quality)- SALT I- limits on ABM Radars and ICBM silo; verifiability main issue.
Without qualitative constraints the arms race could shift from a quantitative race to a qualitative one.

Objectives of SALT
1.  achieve essential equivalence
2.  improve stability of forces during crisis
3.  reduce arms competition

Reductions
1.  single step vs. progressive
2.  aggregates or individual categories
3.  random vs national selection
4.  destruction vs. inactivation

Arguments for Reduction
1.  compensate for improvements in weapons
2.  eliminate old weapons
3.  institutionalize arms control- reduction & verification
4.  highly visible sign that arms control is at work
5.  process can be readily verifiable

Premeditated destruction- psychological barrier// outrages public (tax payers) and military

Numerical Reductions
1.  rate of reduction
2.  schedule of reduction
3.  defining categories subject to reduction

high ceiling and assymetries in SALT
flexibility to mix weapons/choice
U.S.S.R.- many ICBMs//US- many Bombers---relative to each other (we
prefer diversification- Triad)

Reduction process
destabilizing- can be done while accentuating assymetries
stabilizing- can be done while diminishing assymetries

U.S. leads U.S.S.R. in technology
therefore U.S.S.R. rejects controls on development
therefore U.S. rejects controls to allow U.S.S.R. to catch up

U.S.S.R. compensates with bigger bombs (less accurate)//CEP
U.S.S.R. has 2 missiles aimed at each target
U.S.S.R.- unrestrained military budget//major build-up of forces

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):
Africa (Libya and Chad, Sudan, Somalia and the Horn)
Africa's vast natural resources, e.g., strategic minerals such as Cobalt, Chromium, and Manganese, attract international interest and geopolitical competition.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  A neutron bomb is an enhanced radiation weapon which is yields more neutron radiation and less fallout.

Questions:

Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.Strategic Arms Limitations Talks
SALT I
SALT II
Vladivostok Accords
qualitative arms race

B.quantitative arms race
ASW
P-3 Orion
S-3 Viking
sonobuoy

C.strategic cruise missiles (range of 2500 km. or greater)
counter-force ability
Mk. 12-A warhead and NS-20 guidance system
mobile MX system
counter-force advantage

D.SS-16, SS-17, SS-18, SS-19
effective counterforce attack
ineffective counterforce attack
effective retaliation
Partial Nuclear Test Ban of 1963

E.hard targets
soft targets
kill probability
neutron bomb
penetration rate
F.attrition rate
Eve of attack
free ride
mantle of secrecy
stealth plane

G.defense gets a late start in the race
Sage
Nike-Zeus
antimissile system
light decoy

H.heavy decoy
MIRVs
Control number of weapons (quantity)
Control over weapons improvements (quality)
ABM Radar

I.ICBM silo
verifiability
main issue
premeditated destruction (psychological barrier)
strategic minerals
geopolitical competition

J.first strike capability
strategic weapon
tactical weapon
SLBM
ABM

K.containment
NSC-68
Bernard Brodie (military establishment's purpose)
limited theater war (nuclear weapons)
massive retaliation (saved money)

L.instantly retaliate (by means and places of our choosing)
flexible response (Kennedy)
"preventive war"
assured destruction
the "countervailing strategy" (Carter)

M."damage limitation" (Reagan)
protracted nuclear war

2.  (fill in the blanks)
A.  Restricting the number of strategic delivery vehicles is an example of a ____________ control.
B.  Restricting the development, testing, and deployment of new weapons are examples of ___________ controls.
C.  Critics are correct in pointing out that there was a missile throw-weight gap in the SALT agreement, but it should also be noted that there was a ______ gap in the opposite direction (this time in favor of the US).

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  What were the "comprehensive and deferral" proposals?  How would they limit the quantitative and qualitative arms races?
B.  Is the Soviet medium-range supersonic "Backfire" bomber a strategic weapon?  (Discuss)
C.  Compared with the Russians' weapons, the U.S. has no heavy ICBM force.  (Discuss)
D.  The fact that we are racing the Soviets in ways to obtain a "lead" in an arms race has no real military or political meaning, because both sides now contain the ability to destroy the other in "any conceivable nuclear conflict."  (Discuss)
E.  Missiles' survival from a missile attack can be improved through hardening, concealment, and numbers.  (Explain)
F.  "It is our considered professional judgement that this dilemma has no technical solution."  (Explain)
G.  Give examples of passive and active modes of large scale defense of civilian population.  Which is the better defense if a terrorist attacks your city with a nuclear weapon?
H.  What are five major arguments on why defense against thermonuclear attack is impossible.
I.  What were the objectives of SALT?
J.  What are the strategies which account for weapons acquisition?
K.  How many nuclear weapons were stockpiled by the U.S.A. in the mid-to-late 1940's?
L.  Eisenhower left office warning of the military-industrial complex.  (Discuss)

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  When negotiating numerical reductions, keep in mind the rate of reduction, schedule of reduction, and defining categories subject to reduction.
B.  Without qualitative constraints the arms race could shift from a quantitative race to a qualitative one.
C.  A quantitative approach to controlling the arms race is, for example, to limit the total number of delivery vehicles (ICBM's, SLBM's and strategic bombers).
D.  The U.S.S.R. concentrates on larger ICBM's with greater payloads (e.g., the Soviet SS-18 can carry 8 warheads while the U.S. Minuteman III carries three).
E.  The U.S. has a vastly stronger strategic bomber arsenal than does the U.S.S.R.
F.  The Russian dominance in warheads' yield is countered by the U.S. superiority in accuracy and, more than likely, reliability.
G.  U.S. submarine missile forces outnumber that of our Russian counterparts.
H.  Anti-submarine warfare technology is very clearly in favor of the US.
I.  The number and megatonnage of missiles is no longer an effective measure of strategic supremacy.
J.  Each side allocates its forces among ICBMs, SLBMs, bombers (and bomb loads), MIRVs on a missile, etc.
K.  A strategic weapon can reach the other country's territory whereas the tactical weapon can't.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Answer one of the below.
A.  What are four types of arms' reductions?  What are five arguments for reductions?  (Explain)
B.  Discuss the following:  "Technological surprise presents the primary danger"---Not so since improvement by orders of magnitude in these areas won't make much difference."
C.  The reduction process can be destabilizing or stabilizing.  (Discuss)
D.  Arms control advocates often speak of "arms reductions."  In fact, some "overly liberal doves" often scream for these reductions without realizing that the world can--according to many arms control experts--be less secure as a direct result of arms reductions.  How is this possible and would the world be safer with less arms?
E.  What are the alternatives to massive retaliation?
F.  What was the strategic doctrine in the 1970's?
G.  What drives the arms race?
H.  Does the U.S.A. need prompt conterforce capabilities?  (Discuss)

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- Africa (Libya and Chad, Sudan, Somalia and the Horn).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

Assignment:  Read "Soviet Thinking About Nuclear War And The Arms Race" in McCain (1989:117-142).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Africa (Zaire) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:142-151).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Verification
A.  Central Intelligence Agency
B.  Reconnaissance and Arms Control (e.g., Satellites)
C.  U-2 "spyplane," Blackbird (Stealth later)
D.  Cryptology:  A Pseudo-random Technique (and How Pay Television
Descramblers Work)
E.  "International Communications"

Central Intelligence Agency
(source- CIA Office of Personnel publication)

The Role of Intelligence
In international affairs Intelligence is knowledge--fact and estimate.  In peace it is that knowledge of the world about us that is essential to the preservation of peace.  In war it is knowledge of the enemy without which there can be no victory.  It is the never-ending quest for an accurate and objective understanding of people and events throughout the world.
The London Economist recently defined intelligence this way:  "Modern intelligence has to do with the painstaking collection and analysis of fact, the exercise of judgement, and clear and quick presentation.  It is not simply what serious journalists would always produce if they had time; it is something more rigorous, continuous, and above all operational . . . that is to say, related to something that somebody wants to do or may be forced to do.
"How does CIA Function?- It is the responsibility of the Central Intelligence Agency to collect, evaluate, and produce foreign intelligence.  This information is needed by the senior policy officers of our government in making the decisions required of them in time of peace or national peril.
CIA's Charter (the National Security Act of l947) provides that in the interest of national security, the CIA will advise the National Security Council on intelligence activities of the government.  The task of the CIA is to provide the most accurate, comprehensive and objective information available about national security matters, together with whatever can be learned or deduced about possible impending foreign developments.
In policy formulation its role is limited to providing facts--the agreed facts--relevant to the problem under consideration.  Our role extends to the estimative function--the projection of likely developments from the facts--but not the advocacy, or recommendations for one course of action or another.
How Could You Contribute?- The CIA employs career people trained in nearly all fields of study--scientists, engineers, economists, linguists, mathematicians, are but a few of the disciplines continually in demand.  Required are students of political science, international relations, history, and area studies who can immerse themselves in developments abroad.
The need for a variety of disciplines and skills is illustrated by an example of Agency work.  One office concerned with the collection of material openly available from foreign public media sources prepares daily and weekly reports on developments around the world.
These may give the policy maker his first knowledge of new events and a quick judgement as to their significance.  The job uses all of the skills that go into the making of a large metropolitan newspaper or a national magazine.  The Agency is different in the sense that where the media uses a relatively few collectors and analysts to serve a mass audience, the Agency uses a great many to handcraft a special kind of report for a very few.
Career specialties are- Intelligence Analyst, Economist, Geographer-Cartographer, Science and Technology, Computer Science, and other fields.  Some colleges and universities have a "Co-op program" arrangement with the Agency; a limited number of (usually undergraduate) students are employed through this program each year.  The CIA has a Summer Intern Program for graduate students interested in exploring a career in intelligence.  The program is for area specialists in China, Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, Middle East, and Russia, or students training in the disciplines of economics, geography, political science, history, linguistics, or international relations, who intend to develop expertise in affairs of these areas.  Language training is useful but not essential.
How to apply to the CIA (You must be a citizen of the US)- 1.  If you are in college, see your Placement Officer and request an interview with the CIA representative who visits your campus from time to time, or whose regional office may be situated nearby.  Or, 2.  Write to the Director of Personnel, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington, DC, 20505.  Enclose a resume of your education and experience and ask for preliminary application forms.  Or, 3.  Go to the CIA Recruitment Office, Ames Center Building, 1820 North Fort Meyer Drive, Arlington (Rosslyn), Virginia.  No appointment is necessary for an interview during weekday business hours.

Reconnaissance and Arms Control
(outline of the article by Ted Greenwood)

I.  SALT I states that U.S. & U.S.S.R. should
A.  use national technical means at disposal for verification
B.  not interfere with other parties technical means
C.  not deliberately conceal to impede verification
II.  Primary technical means of both U.S. & U.S.S.R. is satellites
A.  capable of surveying numbers of ICBMs, SLBM, new missile systems, changes in systems, changes in activities, changes in "signature" (e.g., light spectrum of exhaust gases on missile engines, etc.)
B.  satellites use 3 spectral "windows"- (electromagnetic properties)
1.  visible light wavelengths- actual photographs using sunlight
2.  broad infrared band- night photos of polar use
3.  radar wavelengths
C.  Technical data & variable factors of satellites
1.  lifetime from 3 weeks to 10 weeks- eliptical orbit
2.  G=A/300 FR (ground resolution value) smallest dist. object
3.  quality depends on film speed; type, color, light contrast, optics, etc.
D.  Two recovery techniques
1.  catch falling film packet
2.  have developed information transmitted (sorting and interpreting this information has become a big enterprise)
E.  Historical- mid-1950s rocket boosters assured/ 1955 formal requirement issue/ 1960 discontinued U2/ 1960 1st film packet caught/ 1962 newboost- new close look satellite/ 1965 2nd generation satellite/ 1967 3rd generation/ 1972 4th generation "Big Bird" satellite

III.  Qualitative reconnaissance
A.  use of satellites, line of sight radar, OTH radar, shipboard sensors
1.  possible to observed differences in manufacturing, testing, operational sites, etc.  Possible to distinguish difference in signature.

IV. Other (second hand) techniques for observation. Economic analysis, diplomacy, analysis of papers and documents, interviews, espionage.

V.  Concludes that new verification is highly confident and probable.

SR-71 (Blackbird)
(Outline of the article "Alone, Unarmed, Untouchable:  The Amazing SR-71" by Jim Hartz; Reader's Digest- Jan. 1981, pp. 133-136)

1. The SR-71 is an unarmed spy-plane crammed with cameras, special radar and electronic eavesdropping equipment.  It is about the size of a Boeing 727 but with space for only two passengers.

2.  history- (US U-2, then U.S. developed A-11, improved to YF-12A, then updated to SR-71)
a.  1976- it set the world speed and altitude records- 2193 mph in level flight at 85,126 feet.
b.  first mission was flown in 1965 into the most hostile anti-aircraft defense ever mounted over North Vietnam, against the best missile, anti-aircraft gun and radar systems the Soviets could design.  Although it flew daily missions throughout the remainder of the war, not one plane was ever touched.
c.  the SR-71 detected the Soviet combat brigade in Cuba in 1979
d.  SR-71s have also monitored the fighting in Iran and Iraq, in addition to regular patrols along the Soviet border

3.  Engines
a.  designed with housings around them
b.  fuel efficient because it uses air for improving thrust- instead of extra fuel (see original article for details)

4.  advantages
a.  high speed and altitude capabilities
b.  sensors are designed to look sideways, which means it can fly outside a border but peer deep into a nations interior
c.  fuel efficient
d.  carries 40 tons of fuel
e.  can map 100,000 square miles of land per hour

5. disadvantage- heat generated due to high speed (surface temperature reaches 600 degrees F)

6. due to the high heat, the whole plane gets annealed, or heat treated, every time it flies.  It seems to get stronger with age.  thus the planes will be snooping around the world's trouble spots for a long time.

Note:  the SR-71 was retired in the late 1980's.

In "The Mathematics of Public-Key Cryptography" (Scientific American, pp. 146-153), Martin E. Hellman, discusses new methods of encryption which are more practical than older ones and are mathematically more interesting.

<>insert "U-2"
<>insert "Cryptology"
Value in Hands-on Experience
Approved projects (construction and other types) may be substituted for the research paper requirement of this course.

Example Construction Projects-
Introduction and Television- Downconverter/Descrambler
(Acknowledgements:  Mr. Bob Rancourt, Pres., Beta Electronics, 2081-A 3rd Street, Riverside, CA 92507)
This project is useful for learning about cryptology.  It serves as an example for relating to encoding/decoding information which must be kept from unauthorized yet would-be listeners.  Most students do not have a security clearance for learning about or working on crypto projects so this TV project is a good beginning for those who have the interest.  Another pedagogical application is exploring the parallel between a Florida court case (which effectively ruled that there were no rights to sunshine thus creating roadblocks for the development of the solar industry 1959 Florida State Court; Fontainebleau Hotel-- see D. H. Davis, Energy Politics) and a Federal court case- National Subscription Television vs. Rancourt, et. al. (Case No. CV 83-7009 WMB).  We all suffer from myopia in one way or another but technological innovation is difficult enough without shortsighted legislative and judicial processes.  The technology described below, the Deluxe II, has the ability to downconvert and descramble some pay television encoded UHF broadcast transmissions, but the sale of project kits has been halted by the court order.  In addition to the decoder project, two other examples are provided.  Both are in the area of communications and involve the extension of frequency coverage.  Topics related to these three projects which could be explored include:  How people behind the "iron and bamboo curtains" may modify broadcast receivers to receive communications from the free world to break out of the mind-hold of propaganda; How the CIA uses morse code and low power transceivers; How TV and /or video cassette systems will play a role in the conversion of people under Marxist regimes, etc., to free market, etc., ideologies (seeing is believing); Propaganda wars and Arms Control; Etc.

<>insert "International Communications"
Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  Africa (Zaire)
Zaire suffers from elitism and governmental corruption.  Although other nations provide financial support, the desirable effects are diminished by this corruption and elitism.  Mercenaries, usually better trained and equipped than their enemies, maintain a competitive edge in combat.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  Mercenary soldiers are still used in many parts of the world.  They are sometimes recognized by their symbol, as described in the Spring 1991 catalog of U.S. Cavalry (a private equipment supplier- 1-800-777-7732; 2855 Centennial Ave., Radcliff, KY  40160-9000):

The Merc symbol was designed in 1947 by R. Louis, a heraldic officer in the French Army.  The wing denotes speed and stealth; the arm- strength; and the dagger- deadly force.  All are enclosed in a circle to symbolize eternity.  These are elements found in the code of courage embraced worldwide by the truly professional military . . . (personnel).

There is a relationship between "national technical means" and "verification of arms control treaties."  In the article "Reconnaissance and Arms Control," by Ted Greenwood, we are reminded that SALT I states that the U.S. & U.S.S.R. should use national technical means at their disposal for verification; should not interfere with other parties technical means; and should not deliberately conceal to impede verification.

Questions:

Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.Verification of Arms Control Agreements
Central Intelligence Agency
Reconnaissance and Arms Control
Satellites
national technical means

B.U-2 "spyplane"
Blackbird
Stealth (reconnaissance)
Cryptology
Pseudo-random Technique

C.Descramblers
"International Communications"
national technical means for verification
"signature"
"Big Bird"

D.Cryptography
encryption
Downconverter/Descrambler
Mercenaries
elitism

E.science of war
science of peace
sufficiency criteria (doctrine)
leadership succession
co-optation

F.Politburo
V. I. Lenin
Imperialism
Joseph Stalin
Kruschev

G.CPSU
Leonid Brezhnev
Mikhail Borbachev
Yuri Andropov
Konstantin Chernenko

H.Nikita Krushchevv
Georgi Malenkov
Aleksei Kosygin
Marshal Georgi Zhukov
Admiral Sergei Gorshkov

I.Central Committee Plenum
"Kommunist"
Marshal Andrei A. Grechko
"Red Star"
"Pravda"
"Izvestia"
rough parity

2.  (fill in the blanks)
A.  In the Merc symbol, the ____ denotes speed and stealth; the ___- strength; and the ______- deadly force.  All are enclosed in a circle to symbolize eternity.

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  What is the role of Intelligence?
B.  How does CIA Function?
C.  What are the tree spectral "windows?"
D.  Describe the technical data and variable factors of satellites and their use.
E.  Describe two satellite information recovery techniques.
F.  What is qualitative reconnaissance?
G.  What are the non-satellite (second hand) techniques for observation.
H.  Describe the SR-71 (Blackbird) and which of its features are likely to be found in a new stealth reconnaissance aircraft.  What other features would the new aircraft ideally possess?
I.  Describe the missions of the SR-71.  Ideally, which missions would a new stealth reconnaissance aircraft possess?
J.  What means does the U.S. employ to verify arms control agreements?
K.  Discuss the role of the CIA and the various technical means at their disposal for the verification of arms control agreements.
L.  Discuss the role of satellites and comment on the possible impacts on arms control if anti-satellite warfare becomes a reality in the future.
M.  Discuss the role that encrypting and decoding signals/communications plays in our national security and then comment on the potential benefits of public access to encoder/decoder technologies such as pay TV descramblers, etc., as, for example,  a means of developing a pool of people competent in technical skills who can . . ..
N.  According to McCain (1989:119), "The politics of the arms race in Moscow must be discerned from nuances in public statements about defense, which are couched in code phrases intelligible within the Soviet elite but less evident to the broader public."  Discuss in terms of rival Soviet defense policies, etc.
O.  What is the doctrine of "Peaceful Coexistence?"
P.  Discuss Soviet succession politics and defense policy.
Q.  Krushchev's decline in political power began in 1963, the same year when the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R. reached their first major agreement on nuclear arms control.  What contributed to this decline?  Hint:  see McCain (1989:131).
By embracing arms control, what two aims did Brezhnev achieve?  Hint:  see McCain (1989:133).
R.  What are the politics of arms control since Brezhnev?
Discuss both sides of the question about whether the Soviets think they can win a nuclear war?
S.  What are the code words in the Soviet arms debate described by McCain (1989:139-140).

3.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  The CIA's Charter is the National Security Act of 1947.
B.  Some colleges and universities have a "Co-op program" arrangement with the CIA.
C.  The CIA has a Summer Intern Program for graduate students interested in exploring a career in intelligence.  The program is for area specialists.
D.  The primary technical means of both U.S. & U.S.S.R. is satellites.
E.  Non-satellite or second hand techniques for observation include economic analysis, diplomacy, analysis of papers and documents, interviews, and espionage.
F.  The five Soviet services include Strategic Rocket Forces, Air Defense Forces, Navy, Air Force, Army.
G.  A dictum of Karl von Clausewitz, which was also a favorite of Lenin, is "War is not an independent phenomenon, but the continuation of politics by other means."
H.  Possible reasons for acquiring nuclear weapons include, among others, that war can be won and that in war, the offensive is preferable to the defensive.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

4.  Answer one of the below.
A.  In international affairs, Intelligence is knowledge--fact and estimate.  In peace it is that knowledge of the world about us that is essential to the preservation of peace.  In war it is knowledge of the enemy without which there can be no victory.  It is the never-ending quest for an accurate and objective understanding of people and events throughout the world.  (Discuss)
B.  The London Economist recently defined intelligence this way:  "Modern intelligence has to do with the painstaking collection and analysis of fact, the exercise of judgement, and clear and quick presentation.  It is not simply what serious journalists would always produce if they had time; it is something more rigorous, continuous, and above all operational . . . that is to say, related to something that somebody wants to do or may be forced to do."  (Discuss)
C.  What was the Soviet response the Reagan buildup of U.S.A.'s military forces?

Brief (e.g., one page)

5.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- Africa (Zaire).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

Assignment:  Read "The Legacy of the Past:  Problems and Progress in Arms Control" in McCain (1989:143-175).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Africa (Boer Wars) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:152-172).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

SALT II
A.  Verification of SALT II
B.  Status of SALT II

As required by the Arms Control and Disarmament Act, as amended, an annual report of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency is submitted to the President of the U.S. for transmittal to the Congress.  The annual reports are for sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC  20402.  In the 1979 report (released June 1980) is the testimony of Gen. George M. Seignious II, ACDA Director, (testimony before SFRC, July 10, 1979):  "Mr. Chairman, security is what arms control is all about.  We can build up our own defenses, but so can the Soviets.  Arms control agreements offer the only way I know that we can place limits on and even engineer reductions in the Soviet forces arrayed against us.  That, as well as strong forces of our own, is national security.
The SALT II agreement that is before this committee today is a solid substantial package of such limits and reductions:

*Without SALT II, the Soviets could have by 1985 one-third more strategic nuclear delivery vehicles than they will be permitted under the agreement;

*Without SALT II, the Soviets could have by 1985 many hundreds more MIRVed ballistic missile launchers than they are allowed under its terms;

*Without SALT II, the Soviets could deploy as many more heavy missiles as they wanted to and could build still larger missiles if they chose to;

*Without SALT II, each Soviet SS-18 could carry three times as many warheads as are permitted under SALT II, and thus strike three times as many U.S. targets;

*Without SALT II, the Soviets could build all the Backfire bombers they wanted to;

*Without SALT II, the Soviets could develop and deploy as many new types of ICBMs as their engineers could dream of;

*Without SALT II, the Soviets could engage in any and all methods of concealment, making our overall intelligence monitoring task far more difficult.

SALT II, I submit, is arms control that strengthens our security.  No one who has worked on SALT II should be bashful about its accomplishments.  SALT II caps the race in numbers of launchers; it controls several key aspects of the technological arms race.  It builds on SALT I and paves the way to SALT III.  Then, we can bring the numbers down significantly and tighten our grip on the technological arms race."

Verification of the SALT II Agreement
(outline of the article by Les Aspin)

I.  SALT- two parts.
1.  Treaty lasting through 1985
a.  Ceilings on strategic launchers
b.  Ceilings on MIRVed missiles and bombers with ALCMs
c.  Subceiling on MLBMs
d.  Ban on rapid-reload systems
2.  Protocol lasting through 1982
a.  Ban on deployment of mobile ICBM launchers and on the flighttesting of ICBMs from such launchers
b.  Ban on the flight testing and deployment of land-based or sea-based cruise missiles capable of ranges in excess of 600 kilometers
c.  Limitations on the flight testing and deployment of new types of ballistic missiles

II.  Verification a main issue (e.g., is each party to the treaty abiding the restrictions/ceilings?)
1.  The national technical means of surveillance available to us for observing Russian missile tests are multiple, redundant, and complementary
2.  The deployment of additional missiles on Russian submarines cannot go undetected
3.  There are no more than 10 heavy bomber airfields in U.S.S.R.- all closely watched by U.S. surveillance satellites
a.  Present generation of high-resolution cameras on U.S. surveillance satellites are theoretically capable of making a clear photograph of an object one foot across from an altitude of 100 miles.
4.  Surreptitious testings of new strategic missiles (e.g., SS-20) by the U.S.S.R. is a practical impossibility

III.  SALT II framework provides enormous leeway for both sides to pursue strategic programs without cheating
1.  If the Russians cheat in every way to evade detection, they would add little to their strategic power

IV.  Verification problems in the future might become critical
1.  Technological advances
a.  Cruise missiles
b.  Transferable MIRV payloads

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  Africa (Boer Wars)
The Republic of South Africa, RSA, has achieved economic success for its white tribe through cheap black labor on farms, in mines, etc.  RSA's white tribe, the Afrikaners or Boers, are, for the most part, descendents of some Dutch people who emigrated from the Netherlands under the sponsorship of the Dutch East India Company in 1652.  The language of the Boers is Afrikaans.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  Secrecy is from competition, and openness is from cooperation.
Apartheid is the South African Boer policy of enforced racial separation.

Questions:

Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.secrecy (competition)
openness (cooperation)
SALT II
Arms Control and Disarmament Act
U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

B.technological arms race
Treaty
Ceilings
Subceiling
rapid-reload systems

C.Protocol
deployment
flight testing
launchers
land-based

D.sea-based
Transferable MIRV payloads
Apartheid
Afrikaners or Boers
Afrikaans

E.ABM
concept of parity
compliance
secret agent

F.overflight
nonintrusive means of verification (such as satellites)
damage limiters
rough parity
missile tracking radar

G.telemetry (not encrypted)
intercept transmissions
Krasnoyarsk
on-site inspection
mutual verifiability

H.weaponization of space
horizontal proliferation
vertical proliferation
launcher limits
warhead limits

I.Geneva Protocol (1925)
Antarctic Treaty (1959)
Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963)
Outer Space Treaty (1967)
Latin American Nuclear-Free Zone Treaty (1967)

J.Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (1968)
Biological Weapons Convention (1972)
SALT I- ABM Treaty (1972)
SALT I- Interim Agreement (1972)
ABM Protocol (1974)

K.Threshold Test Ban Treaty (1974), unratified by United States
PNE Treaty (1976), unratified by United States
SALT II (1979), unratified by United States
nuclear nonproliferation
Czechoslovakia (August, 1968)
"passion for military secrecy"

2.  (fill in the blanks)
A.  The present generation of high-resolution cameras on U.S. surveillance satellites are theoretically capable of making a clear __________ of an object one foot across from an altitude of 100 miles.
B.  A major breakthrough for verification came in the early 1960's, as _________ reconnaissance began letting the U.S.S.R. and U.S.A. spy on each other with impunity.
C.  The Russian ________ is a supersonic medium bomber able to attain Mach 2 at high-altitudes.  Its combat radius is 3,500 miles, which means it could reach the U.S. only by flying subsonically from artic bases in the U.S.S.R. on a one-way _______ mission, by landing in a "third country" such as ______ or by refueling in flight.  One issue is whether or not the ________ is a strategic weapon.

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  How did Gen. George M. Seignious II, ACDA Director, define national security?  Hint:  testimony before SFRC, July 10, 1979.
B.  Describe what the Soviets could have in a scenario without SALT II.
C.  "The national technical means of surveillance available to us for observing Russian missile tests are multiple, redundant, and complementary."  Discuss.
D.  What accounts for the continuing interest in arms control?  Hint:  incentives, McCain (1989:146-147).
E.  What do satellites see?
F.  Should SALT II have been ratified?  Discuss.

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  President Eisenhower had sought to legalize aircraft surveillance with his "Open Skies" proposal.
B.  Because optical observations in the visible spectrum from satellites can be impeded by darkness or bad weather, infrared sensors and radar technologies are utilized on satellites.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Answer one of the below.
A.  Discuss complete disarmament.
B.  Discuss the banning of nuclear weapons tests.
C.  Discuss the importance of verification.

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- Africa (Boer Wars).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

 

Assignment:  Read "Arms Control In The Eighties," "Options In Arms Control" and the remainder of the book by McCain (1989:176-198, 199-218, Glossary- 219-223, Index- 225-239).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Asia (Philippines, Indonesia) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:173-187).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Submarines
A.  Triad
B.  Missile Submarines
C.  Anti-submarine Warfare

The U.S. relies on a triad approach to defense.  The three legs of the triad include land based missiles, airborne bombers, and submarines.  The fleet ballistic missile submarines consist of the nuclear powered submarines which remain submersed much of the time, travelling back and forth between the U.S. and Scotland.  If the U.S. were attacked by the Soviets, then these subs, which would be difficult for the Soviets to eliminate, could fire nuclear missiles in retaliation.  Thus the subs deter the Soviets from attacking the US.  The crews aboard these subs are on duty in two month alternating shifts and are referred to as the blue and the gold crews (blue uniforms, and gold or summer tan uniforms).  The blue and gold crews are the complete crews of the ballistic missile submarine.  These crews alternately will serve aboard the submarine, for example:  one crew will be aboard say the blue while the other crew say the gold will be ashore.  This allows the submariners ample rest since while they are underway on a cruise they will spend prolonged times at sea and especially submerged.  This procedure allows for maximum utilization of the submarine.

The Future of the Sea Based Deterrent- The Trident
(outline of an article by _)
I.  The Trident program
A.  is a combination of three separate development and production programs.  Two different ballistic missiles and one submarine.

II.  The Trident I Missile
A.  A-1, A-2, A-3, and the C-3 preceeded the Trident I
1.  C-3 has a range of 2,500 nautical miles with a nominal payload of ten MIRVed weapons, each with a yield of about 50 kilotons.
2.  Trident I has a payload similar to the C-3 but will have a range of about 4,000 nautical miles.  There is a possibility of trading off payload for range so that with just a few warheads a range of well beyond 4,000 miles could be reached.

III.  The Trident Submarine
A.  will replace the Polaris submarine.
B.  displaces 16,000 tons of water, twice as much as the Polaris
C.  it will carry 24 rather than 16 missiles
D.  quieter and faster and will have improved sonar capabilities

IV.  Trident II Missile
A.  designed specifically for the Trident submarine
B.  its payload will be similar to the C-3 and C-4, missiles but it will have a range extending to 6,000 nautical miles

V.  The Rationale for Trident
A.  to maintain momentum in U.S. strategic programs
B.  to provide a hedge against a possible ASW (anti submarine warfare) breakthrough which may jeopardize the deterrence capability of our SLBM force (submarine launched ballistic missile)
C.  is being designed so that maintenance and overhaul can be accomplished more quickly than is currently possible with Polaris submarines, permitting approximately 15% more time at sea
D.  with the greater missile range, submarines can reach launch areas much more quickly.

VI.  Summary
By committing ourselves to the Trident program before we have a clear idea of the threat, we could again find ourselves with weapons that are technically superb but which are wrongly designed for the environment in which they will operate.

Missile Submarines and National Security
(Outline of article- Scientific American, June 1972)

I.  Nuclear Arsenals of both U.S. and U.S.S.R. continue to grow, as a deterrence to hostile attack.  This is an accepted key concept of national security for both sides.  In relation to this we feel there is no "winning" a nuclear war, but we need to have the ability to retaliate.
A. submarines
1.  expensive, +$100 million
2.  mobile
3.  invisible
B.  ICBMs
1. less expensive
2.  not mobile; targetable
3.  not feasible to harden sufficiently
C. bombers- SAC (strategic air command)
1.  less expensive
2.  mobile, but vulnerable when caught on the ground
3. targetable

"In sum, the Navy will increasingly be the principle military guardian of our national security."

II. The characteristics of a SLBM force.
A. submarines must be able to operate in large areas.  To help this the U.S. developed:
1. 1960- A1 missile, 1200 nautical miles
2. 1963 A-2 missile, 1500 nautical miles
3. 1963 A3 missile, 2500 nautical miles

Anti-submarine Warfare and National Security
(Outline of article by Richard L. Garwin)
The missile-submarine deterrents of the U.S. and U.S.S.R. are not threatened by current antisubmarine technology.  It is argues that this state of affairs should be maintained by the two powers.
SALT formally recognizes that the U.S. and U.S.S.R. accept the military and political value of mutual deterrence as a means of forestalling an all out nuclear war.

1.  SALT does not prohibit the U.S. and U.S.S.R. from qualitatively improving their offensive missile forces.
2.  Could increase accuracy and throw weight of offensive missiles.
3.  Would increase probability of destroying land based missiles.
4.  Therefore each country wants to maintain the invulnerability of its sub-marine based strategic weapons.

A potential threat to the submarine based deterrent exists
1.  Both the U.S. and U.S.S.R. have anti-submarine warfare forces (ASW).
2.  Present technology is not effective.
Purpose of deterrent forces:  is to survive a full first strike on-slaught for a few hours in order to fire their weapons.

ASW involves intelligence:  detection, localization, destruction
Intelligence includes:

1.  number of enemy submarines of each class.  example- attack submarines, nuclear powered attack submarines, ballistic missile launching submarines, nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines, cruise missile launching submarines.

2.  intelligence on force levels and technical characteristics.  example- range of missiles, number of torpedos, noise level, speed and endurance, sonar and radar capabilities.

3.  tactical intelligence dealing wit number of enemy submarines out of port, # in each ocean basin, special vulnerabilities (detection & localization)

Detecting
1.  detection of periscopes by radar, radio frequency direction finding, visual sighting from aircraft.
2.  most effective method of detection is by use of acoustic methods.
a.  passive- detection of noise generated by submarine
b.  active- requires sonar gear to receive reflected sound waves

Passive
1.  sound from propeller and water (high speeds)
2.  sound from installed machinery (low speeds)
3.  problem distinguishing tiny sounds from waves, wind, undersea life, other surface vessels.
4.  velocity of sound waves varies underwater with temperature, pressure, salinity, depth, position, and season.
5.  sounds in deep channel travel 3000 miles but submarines do not descend to that depth (4000 to 6000 feet).
6.  A submarine lying dead in the water cannot be detected by passive techniques.

Passive detection
1.  hydrophones located in different places at various depths analyze sounds through computer programming to determine submarine sounds or just noise.
2.  sonobuoy fields-  sown and monitored by aircraft.  difficult to monitor as sonobuoys have considerable freedom of movement.
3.  another submarine- is much quieter than surface ships and more accurate in detecting an enemy submarine than hydrophones or sonobuoy fields.

Active detection
1.  sonar- installed routinely in surface vessels and submarines
2.  sonar devices lowered from helicopters; not effective at long range detection
3.  fixed active systems
4.  semiactive or bistatic system
5.  all detect moving objects more readily than stationary ones.

Localization
1.  can be done by air, surface, or below surface
a.  helicopters use active sonar systems.  can determine range but bearing less accurately
b.  surface ships use active sonar systems in the same way as helicopters but do not have the speed advantage a helicopter has
c.  underwater is the slowest but not neccessarily the least effective

Destruction-  U.S. has two principle weapons for destruction
1.  12 inch Mark 46 active acoustic homing torpedo
2.  full size 21 inch Mark 48 active-passive acoustic homing torpedo
3.  both are not perfectly reliable in combat (12 inch Mark 46- aircraft & helicopters and the deck of a ship; 21 inch Mark 48- long range torpedo with a warhead)

Another possible weapon is anti-submarine mines.
1.  mines with homing torpedoes
2.  ordinary mines- only good in shallow water.
3.  mines which could drive itself downward or upward if tripped by a wire

Garwin proposes two goals in an agreement between U.S. and U.S.S.R. to protect each others submarine based deterrent forces:

1st goal-  Prohibit either force from building or deploying a weapons system that is technically capable of destroying the other sides submarine deterrent in a matter of minutes, hours, or days.  This could be done through prohibiting active tracking of missile submarines during peacetime and by providing wide ocean sanctuaries for fee patrol, immune from surveillance.

2nd goal-  reduce or perhaps eliminate the attrition of missile launching submarines during a conventional war without restricting vigorous warfare to protect (or attack) surface shipping.

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  Asia (Philippines, Indonesia)
Despite an influx of foreign aid, many citizens of the Philippines continue to suffer econcomic hardships.  The Marcos regime has collapsed and a struggling democratic government is getting tougher on its domestic enemies.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  A De-Militarized Zone (DMZ) is usually established by agreement as a means to reduce hostilities between opposing forces, e.g., two armies, and separate them to avoid accidental conflicts.
One proposal for basing the MX missile involved locating diesel powered submarines just off our coasts.  It was noted that a few nuclear blasts further out to sea would result in huge waves capable of incapacitating the subs (this phenomenon is known as the Van Doren effect).

Questions:
Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.Submarines
Triad
Missile Submarines
Anti-submarine Warfare
fleet ballistic missile submarines

B.Scotland
deterrence
blue and the gold crews
maximum utilization of the submarine
A-1, A-2, A-3

C.C-3, C-4
Trident I Missile
Trident Submarine
Polaris Submarine
Trident II Missile

D.SLBM
Anti-submarine Warfare
conventional attack submarines
nuclear powered attack submarines
ballistic missile launching submarines

E.nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines
cruise missile launching submarines
force levels
technical characteristics
range of missiles

F.number of torpedos
noise level
speed and endurance
sonar and radar capabilities
tactical intelligence

G.number of enemy submarines out of port
number of enemy submarines in each ocean basin
special vulnerabilities (detection & localization)
detection of periscopes by radar
radio frequency direction finding

H.visual sighting from aircraft
passive detection (noise generated by submarine)
active detection (requires sonar gear to receive reflected sound waves)
hydrophones
sonobuoy fields

I.aircraft (role of for detecting submarines)
Localization
active acoustic homing torpedo
active-passive acoustic homing torpedo
anti-submarine mines

J.mines with homing torpedoes
bombers- SAC (strategic air command)
DMZ
throw weight
GLCM

K.INF
SS-20
START
warhead-to-aimpoint ratio
Reykjavik, Iceland

L.short-range INF
CNTB
"third generation" (Hint:  McCain (1989:200))
CORRTEX
Nuclear Freeze

M.Strategic Build-Down
Midgetman
SS-25
ASAT weapons
ASAT Treaty

N.SDI
ground-based lasers
"smart rocks"
particle beams
revising ABM treaty

2.  The U.S. relies on a _____ approach to defense- the three legs include land based missiles, airborne bombers, and submarines.  (fill in the blank)

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  What is the rationale for the Trident program?
B.  Although submarines are expensive, they are mobile and "invisible."  Discuss.
C.  "In sum, the Navy will increasingly be the principle military guardian of our national security."  Explain.
D.  A potential threat to the submarine based deterrent exists.  Explain.
E.  ASW involves intelligence:  detection, localization, destruction.  What does intelligence include?
F.  What are the two goals suggested by Garwin for protecting submarine based deterrent forces?  Critique these goals.
G.  Recall the phenomenon known as the Van Doren effect.  What could be done to avoid this problem and under what conditions would submarines be a good platform for missiles?
H.  Describe passive detection.
I.  Describe active detection.
J.  Describe U.S.A.'s capabilities for destruction of enemy submarines.
K.  What are the current issues in strategic arms control?
L.  Describe Arms Control in the 1980s.
M.  Summarize the important points for maintaining a submarine force and discuss the value of such a system in terms of (1) vulnerability, (2) deterrent aspects, and (3) the weaknesses of the Trident system.

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  For now, the most effective method of submarine detection is by use of acoustic methods.
B.  According to Garwin, another submarine is much quieter than surface ships and more accurate in detecting an enemy submarine than hydrophones or sonobuoy fields.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Outline the options in Arms Control discussed by McCain (1989:199-218).  Critique these options.

Brief (e.g., one page)

7.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- Asia (Philippines, Indonesia).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

* * * Take The Closed-Book Midterm Examination * * *

<>insert How to arrange to take your midterm exam

 

Assignment:  Read the preface and "Soviet Policies and Global Ambitions" in Gervasi (1988:V-22).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Asia (Korea, Burma, Russia and China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:188-202).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Introduction
Advanced weapons
A.  Millimeter-wave guided weapons (and Police Radar Detector)
B.  Stealth plane(s)
C.  Cruise missiles
D.  Enhanced-Radiation Weapons
E.  Charged particle beam weapons
F.  "Star Wars"
Soviet weapons (assigned readings)

Introduction
"With What Do We Draw The Line?"
(An article outline- see Forbes Magazine, Physicist Dr. Edward Teller)
I.  Overview of Article
A.  Is History Repeating?
1.  Physicist Dr. Edward Teller fears it may be.
2.  Only a balance of military power can prevent war.
3.  Teller believes and thinks the U.S. is no longer a match for the Soviet Union in advanced weapons technology.
4.  If the U.S. went into nuclear war today, Russia would win and the U.S. would cease to exist.
5.  Teller believes Russia is ahead of the U.S. on every level of conflict:  conventional, nuclear, & unconventional (laser).
6.  Teller reminds us of the slaughters of WWI and WWII because of military unpreparedness.

B.  Concrete Examples of Russian Superiority
1.  There have been reports of very advanced Russian Nuclear Submarines
2.  Two prominent Russian physicists- Basov and Prochorov, are working on laser theory with military applications, such as stopping nuclear missiles and altering the importance of defense.

C.  Why is Russia Ahead?
1.  After World War II, especially during the 60's, there was an anti-technological and anti-scientific sentiment which evolved as a moral position against military applications of technology.
2. Teller believes the ethical values of scientists are confused; the love of peace should not be a reason to stop development of arms.

D.  Steps to Eliminate Russian Advantage
1.  Realize not an Arms Race but a Race in Technology.
2.  Need appropriate national leadership.
3.  Not to deploy nuclear energy safely and rapidly is a mistake.

E.  Will U.S. Regain its Lost Balance of Power
1.  U.S. has advantage in Electronics but it needs to be militarily applied.
2.  Cruise Missile is an elementary step in the right direction.
3.  The problem according to Teller is Leadership; a budget increase is needed and more scientists are needed to develop technology if we are to keep up with the Russians.

<>insert "The Significance of mm-Wave Guided Weapons"
including Figure 1- (radar detector)

Stealth
To understand stealth technology, consider its principles of operation and then consider applying such technology to the various weapons and delivery vehicles utilized in warfare.

"America's Invisible Airplane- It's Principles are Clear Enough"
(Outline of article by Malcolm W. Browne, New York Times, Sunday Sept. 7, 1980, p. 20E)

1.  Project Stealth- military development of an aircraft which is virtually invisible to radar
a.  revealed by Secretary of Defense, Harold Brown- critics said he was giving away a national secret

2.  What is radar?
a.  short wave radio waves (frequency between infrared light and ordinary broadcast radio)
b.  radar waves bounce off objects and these reflections are received by the radar detectors and are displayed as images on television-like screens

3.  all structures are detectable by radar
a.  some parts will reflect the wavelengths of radar
b.  reduction of wavelength reflection to confuse radar scanners with normal radar noises

4.  how to make an object invisible to radar
a.  size- the smaller the size, the weaker the echo
b.  shape, curved shapes reflect less waves (radar reflects well from sharp angles and intersecting edges/corners)
c.  structural materials- carbon based materials reflect less than ordinary aircraft material (metal).  metal can be coated with plastic polymers to decrease radar reflections.  Two types of coatings- one acts by absorbing radar energy; another uses the physics phenomenon known as destructive interference.  Radar waves are reflected back, part by the first surface coating and second by the underlying coating/second surface; the two reflections are out of phase with each other and cancel each other out.

5.  additional options- electronic countermeasures and treating engine exhaust
a.  on board computers can quickly analyze in-coming radar waves and generate misleading "false echo's"
b.  sound suppressive devices
c.  reduction of infrared emissions from exhaust

6.  military requirements
a.  performance capabilities
b.  smallest radar reflectivity

7.  problems
a.  even though methods used for stealth have been available for years, the problem is in coordinating all the methods for optimum/maximum effect
b.  echo destroying coatings usually work well against one radar frequency but not against another
c.  surface contour designs are proving difficult for computer programmers to optimize stealth qualities while maintaining good flight characteristics

8.  all that is needed is to develop a stealth plane which, though not truly invisible to radar, will shows up on radar detection apparatus as nothing more than the usual "noise" associated with atmospheric conditions, etc.

Cruise Missiles
(An outline of "Cruise Missiles," Scientific American, Feb. 1977 Vol. 236)

I.  What is a Cruise Missile?
Definition:  A dispensible, pilotless, self-guided, continuously powered, air breathing warhead delivery vehicle that flies like an airplane, unsupported by aerodynamic surfaces.
A.  Properties and components of the Cruise Missile.
1.  Continuous guidance provided by one of three types of guidance systems.
a.  Terrain matching technique:  relies on the principle that the altitude of the ground is a function of location.  Maps are stored in the missile's computer memory.
b.  Area-correlation method:  measures the microwave reflectivity of the ground as a function of location.
c.  Global positioning satellite system:  consists of 24 satellites in polar orbits, each emitting signals which are used by the cruise missiles to determine position.  Each area of the earths surface will have at least four satellites in sight at all times.  The missile can determine its true position within ten meters in three dimensions without any other external data.
2.  Small jet engines.
a.  Turbojet engines weighing less than 130 lbs.
b.  Turbofan engines weighing less than 130 lbs. and generating up to 600 lbs. of thrust. The turbofan jet engine is more efficient (consumes less fuel per distance travelled) than Turbojets and has a lower exhaust temperature.

B.  What are the advantages of deploying the Cruise Missile?
1.  Many can be produced cost effectively.
2.  Versatility in relation to its launch site.
a.  Submarines
b.  Aircraft (Possible use of wide bodied aircraft.)
c.  Naval Vessels.
d.  Land Bases.

II.  Some details and implications
1.  "harpoon"- strictly tactical, anti-shipping missile, launched from subs, surface or air, radar altimeter and scanner.
a.  Diameter- 34 cm., length- 4 m., weight- 1200 lb.
b.  range- 100 Km, speed- 600 mph (.85 mach)
c.  Its accurate and flies over water; it can distinguish between large and small targets.
2.  Sea launched cruise missile (SLCM)- tactical and strategic uses, can be launched from subs, surface, land or air.
a.  diameter- 53 cm., length- 6 m, weight- 3200 lb.
b.  range- 200 Km., radar altimeter and terrain matching guidance system.
c.  It  is accurate and can penetrate enemy radar by flying low.  Redundancy aspect of its guidance system prevents "jamming" efforts of the enemy.
d.  When it is launched from a submarine- it is noisy, detectable, and its salvos are slow.

3.  Long range strategic cruise missiles-  Advantages- pinpoint accuracy after a flight of 5000 Km.  Non-nuclear warheads can be used thereby raising the nuclear threshold without the political burden of a nuclear attack.  Drawbacks- air defenses make results of attack uncertain (remember it has a long flight time) and therefore it has a minimal deterrant effect.  This technology blurs the distinction between strategic (nuclear) and factional (chemical) weapons.
4.  Air launched cruise missile-  Aircraft armed with these missiles would not have to penetrate the air defenses of an opponent since the missiles, once launched at the border, could fly to distant targets.  Since the launching platform (an airplane) would not come under attack, there is no need for supersonic speeds.  Wide body commercial aircraft (e.g., Boeing 747 and DC-10) could be used.  Size and fuel limitations curtail the range to half that of the SLCM, making it unsuitable as a "standoff" weapon (e.g., must stand near the target).
5.  Short range tactical cruise missile-  The missile can be guided by a remote human operator who monitors a TV screen which displays an outline of the terrain.  Inexpensive alternative to manned fighter bombers.  Could replace tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and change the U.S. arsenal from one that is high-cost/low-attrition to one that is low-cost/dispensible.

III.  Position taken in article-
1.  Development and deployment of strategic cruise missiles is counterproductive for three reasons
a.  unnecessary,
b.  would nullify SALT,
c.  increase submarine vulnerability (an important deterrant force of the US).
2.  Negotiable criteria for differentiating between tactical and strategic cruise missiles can and should be incorporated into the design of future missiles so they can be detected/characterized by satellites.
3.  Unilateral restraint in development and deployment of long range cruise missiles by the U.S. would allow for the orderly development of an effective tactical cruise missile.

Efficiency of an engine (e.g., a cruise missile jet engine) is given by:  Eff. = 100% x (1 - (Tout/Tin)).

Enhanced-Radiation Weapons
(an outline of the Scientific American article by Fred M. Kaplan)
The enhanced radiation warhead, like the generation of tactical nuclear weapons that preceeded it, is intended for use in a European ground war between the nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), including the US, and the nations of the Warsaw Pact, including the U.S.S.R..
The energy of a nuclear explosion can be divided into:
1.  For a fission explosion- 50% blast, 35% thermal radiation, 5% prompt radiation.
2.  For a fusion bomb- 20% blast and thermal radiation, 80% prompt radiation (mostly neutrons), and little residual radiation.
3.  For an enhanced radiation warhead- 40% blast, 25% thermal radiation, 30% prompt radiation, and 5% fallout.
So an enhanced radiation weapon is far from being a pure fusion weapon.
The Lance missile (one of our enhanced radiation weapons) is roughly 60% fusion and 40% fission and the eight inch artillery shell is about 50-50 fusion-fission.  The enhanced radiation warheads are of smaller yields than the conventional fission warheads because of the much higher levels of prompt radiation in them (mostly neutrons).
In order to win a European Ground War, NATO must stop the Soviet tank force as it advances into West Germany.
Fission weapons are not feasible.  Because of their high yields, they would destroy not only the Warsaw tanks, but also NATO soldiers, German civilians, and much of the West German territory.
Enhanced radiation weapons could be used to kill soldiers inside their tanks without actually destroying the tanks themselves.

Radiation is measured in RADS:
A.  8,000 RADS- incapacitates in 5 minutes, kills within a day or two.
B.  3,000 RADS- incapacitates in 5 minutes, kills in four to six days.
C.  650 RADS- functionally impairs in two hours, kills within a couple of weeks.

A one-kiloton enhanced radiation weapon releases:
A.  150 RADS out to 1.7 kilometers
B.  30 RADS out to 2.1 kilometers
C.  14 RADS out to 2.3 kilometers

As compared to fission warhead:
A.  150 RADS to 1.285 meters
B.  30 RADS to 1,570 meters
C.  14 RADS to 1,700 meters
Thus, a one-kiloton enhanced radiation warhead could potentially kill twice as many tankmen as a 10 kiloton fission warhead, but with only one-fifth as much blast damage to an area.
The question is whether the enhanced radiation weapon is a good solution (for NATO) in limited European War.

1.  If the enhanced radiation weapon were used in a limited war in Europe, assuredly Russia would retaliate with nuclear fission weapons.  This could possibly escalate into nuclear exchanges between the two super powers.

2.  There are non-nuclear weapons that could be used (by taking the money from the enhanced weapons program) that would be just as effective a deterrent against the Warsaw tanks.

Wouldn't it be better to use these other weapons than to keep developing enhanced radiation weapons when the likelihood of them being used in a limited European War isn't very great?

Particle-Beam Weapons
(Outline of the article by John Parmentola and Kosta Tsipis)
A.  Proposed Uses, and Countermeasures for Particle-Beam Weapons
1.  A U.S. ABM Satellite System using a particle-beam
a.  150 satellites placed in orbits 1000 kilometers high
b.  all enemy launching sites are covered by at least one satellite
c.  one weapon can destroy some 1000 Russian ICBMs
d.  communications routed between ABM and ground station via relay satellite in an orbit of some 40,000 kilometers
e.  countermeasures
i.  metalic chaff
ii.  Russian anti-ABM satellite
iii.  decoys used with Russian ICBMs
iv.  Jamming station in U.S.S.R. jams satellite radar
v.  nuclear explosion 100 kiloton
2.  A ship based defense system used against cruise missiles
a.  radar beam would detect cruise missile at 1 kilometer
b.  missile would take 4 seconds to reach its target
c.  particle-beam weapon would engage the missile and shoot it down in .001 seconds
i.  it will not be known whether or not there is enough energy left to destroy target until more experiments have been done
d.  countermeasures
i.  metallic chaff
ii.  smoke screen
iii.  decoys
iv.  small explosion
3.  Ground based U.S. ABM system to defend U.S. missile silos
a.  radar would track incoming reentry vehicles
b.  particle-beam weapon would have to wait until each attacking warhead is within 1 kilometer until it destroys it, in approximately .7 second
c.  countermeasure
i. a nuclear explosion in stratosphere would create a Beta Blackout blinding the ABM system's radar.

Precision-guided Weapons- Missiles that can home in on their target may alter the balance of forces on the battlefield.  Notably vulnerable to such "smart" weapons are tanks, which the U.S. is buying in large numbers.  By Paul F. Walker.  Scientific American, August 1981, Vol. 245, No. 2.

"Star Wars"
March 23, 1983- U.S. President Ronald Reagan proposes "Strategic Defense Initiative" (popularly known as "Star Wars," even though this nick name misrepresents the nature of the system which is, simply stated, to be a protective umbrella to prevent enemy warheads from falling upon U.S. Americans).
Book review (Summary of book review by Tung Nguyen, 34th street, Nov. 29,1984, p. 11)-  The Fallacy of Star Wars, Union of Concerned Scientists, Vintage, $4.95.  Contains two UCS reports on anti-satellite weapons and space-based ballistic missile defense (published in March 1983 and March 1984, respectively).  An introduction gives a brief history of U.S. and U.S.S.R. nuclear arms buildup from 1945 to the present.
Case against star wars is based on the feasibility of ballistic-missile defense systems (BMD).  Reagan's plan calls for the development of laser and particle beam weapons to counter incoming Soviet warheads and pushes for the development of anti-satellite (ASAT) technology.  One Scenario requires space-based battle stations armed with lasers or particle beam weapons and full defense software to detect, aim and fire beams of light at incoming missiles.  Another envisions ground-based laser stations capable of directing beams to orbiting mirrors in space, which would redirect the laser beams to their targets.  The plan also calls for development of ASATs to protect existing U.S. monitoring satellites.
The book argues that neither the U.S. nor the U.S.S.R. now have the technology to build these systems.  According to Richard DeLauer, a top Pentagon scientist, success requires breakthroughs in eight major technologies, each of which is "equivalent to or greater than the Manhattan Project."  These technologies would be expensive to develop, and would not show any tangible benefits within 30 years.
The authors strongly oppose a national effort to develop BMDs without the needed technology and without restraint, although they do support any quest to "render nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete" (as President Reagan proposes).  "There is an enormous gulf between such a program and an call from the ramparts for a national 'experiment' to mount a defense based on untried technologies and provocative doctrines," the book states.
Politically, a move toward BMD development would force the U.S. to abrogate the ABM Treaty of 1972, which forbids development of any antiballistic missile defense outside those allowed under the treaty.  Such a move would not be perceived favorable by our NATO allies, as it would signify "a retreat into a 'Fortress America' mentality, which could sacrifice important European interests for the sake of greater American security."  Most importantly, the two superpowers would be driven closer to an open conflict, since the Soviets are likely to develop similar systems.
The solution to this problem, suggests UCS, is a treaty forbidding all space-weapons tests.  This would still maintain U.S. interests in space, like the satellites which are integral to communications and strategic systems.  The U.S. has more to lose, they assert, if there is unrestrained construction of space-based defenses.
The book has some flaws.  At times the authors are carried away by the emotionalism characteristic of fervent nuclear-freeze advocates.
Although the UCS presents a strong technological case against BMD and ASAT weapons, the reader is not convinced that the decision to deploy strategic systems important for national security should be based solely on technology.
The authors too often try to impose their beliefs on the reader; a strong non-partisan presentation is compromised by the introduction's diatribe).

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):
Asia (Korea, Burma, Russia and China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan)
The U.S.A. is serving as the guarantor of the South Korean government through, for example, economic and military efforts.  Although the North Koreans complain, U.S. forces routinely conduct readiness exercises near the DMZ.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  A risk adjusted estimate is a point or range estimate instead of a probability estimate which considers a decision makers risk attitude towards uncertainty.  For example, when arms control numbers are "cooked" by the U.S. or the U.S.S.R., it may be for legitimate reasons associated with risk attitude rather than for posturing or propaganda.
Let's digress to consider a risky choice during a vacation.  Suppose you were driving a rented pick-up truck across a long and desolate road in the outback of Australia.  The rental agency tells you, based on the average miles per gallon for their fleet of trucks, you will only need precisely 100 gallons of gasoline to arrive at the other end of the road where their is an oasis and more fuel, etc.  Knowing there is nothing but desert between you and the oasis gives you concern, so you ask for the range of fuel needed.  The rental agent replies 90 to 140 gallons of fuel.  During rainstorms the vehicles travel at slower speeds and in lower gears and thus consume more fuel.  The weather service forecasts only a 30% chance of rain during your travel.  Would you prefer to carry additional fuel containers?  Would you prefer the rental agency to state the fuel requirement at "160 gallons or less."
How would you prefer uncertainty to be presented to you whether for risky vacations or for arms control?  Note that the above is presenting only ideas on risk adjusted point estimates and range estimates.
Beta Blackout is a phenomenon associated with a nuclear explosion.  Beta particles (electrons) polarize the environment, causing radar malfunctions, and electromagnetic pulses (EMP).  EMP is the induced pulse in, for example, electronic equipment.  Unless equipment is specially hardened against EMP, it causes equipment failures.

Questions:
Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.Millimeter-wave guided weapons
Radar Detector
Stealth plane(s)
Cruise missiles
Enhanced-Radiation Weapons

B.Charged particle beam weapons
"Star Wars"
conventional, nuclear, & unconventional (laser)
military unpreparedness
laser theory with military applications

C.mm-Wave Guided Weapons
coatings
destructive interference
electronic countermeasures
treating engine exhaust

D.radar reflectivity
"noise"
Terrain matching technique
Area-correlation method
Global positioning satellite system

E.Turbojet engine
Turbofan engine
"harpoon"
SLCM
guidance system prevents "jamming"

F.salvos
strategic cruise missiles
strategic (nuclear) weapons
factional (chemical) weapons
ALCM

G.Wide body commercial aircraft
"standoff" weapon
Short range tactical cruise missile
high-cost/low-attrition missile
low-cost/dispensible missile (e.g., TV guided)

H.differentiating between tactical and strategic cruise missiles
efficiency of a cruise missile jet engine
Enhanced-Radiation Weapons
blast
thermal radiation

I.prompt radiation
fallout
Lance missile
eight inch artillery shell (50-50 fusion-fission)
neutrons

J.Beta Blackout
Precision-guided Weapons
protective umbrella
anti-satellite weapons
space-based ballistic missile defense

K.laser weapons
anti-satellite (ASAT) technology
space-based battle stations
ground-based laser stations
orbiting mirrors

L.abrogate the ABM Treaty of 1972
'Fortress America' mentality
UCS
space-weapons tests
risk attitude

M.risk adjusted point estimates and range estimates
Delta IV
road mobile SS-25
SS-X-24
SS-N-23

N.Peacekeeper
SS-18 Mod 4 ICBM
SS-20
SS-23
SS-21

O.Blackjack bomber
Bear H
SSC-X-4
SS-NX-21
SA-12A/Gladiator

P.SA-XB/Giant
Bear J
Midas
Fulcrum
Condor

Q.Kirov-Class nuclear powered cruiser
Sovremenny-Class guided-missile destroyer
Slava-Class nuclear-powered attack submarine
Akula and Sierra
Delta IV

R.Typhoon-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines
Baku
Kiev-class carrier
carrier Leonid Brezhnev
Havoc and Hokum

S.M-1 Abrams
ZSU-X
ZSU-23-4 SHILKA
T-72
GEPARD Flakpanzer

T.Stavka
CIA
DIA
NSA
INR

U.ONI
AFI
ASA
CIC
KGB

V.GRU
CUB
power projection
MiG-29/Fulcrum
MiG-23/Flogger

W.F-4 Phantom
"the ultimate mirror image"
TVD
TMO

X.TMA
TSMA
MOD
MSU
CINCs

Y.VGK
16 MDs
NSWP
NATO
Nikolayev Shipyard

Z.A-6 Intruder
KH-11 satellite
HCF
Yak-36 Forger
B-1
Mathias Rust (Cessna 172)

2.  (fill in the blanks).
A.  The ________ radiation warhead, like the generation of tactical nuclear weapons that preceeded it, is intended for use in a European ground war between the nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), including the US, and the nations of the Warsaw Pact, including the U.S.S.R.
B.  The USSR has long followed the Leninist maxim that ________ has a quality of its own.
C.  Radiation is measured in ____:
8,000 ____- incapacitates in 5 minutes, kills within a day or two.
3,000 ____- incapacitates in 5 minutes, kills in four to six days.
650 ____- functionally impairs in two hours, kills within a couple of
weeks.

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  Teller believes the ethical values of scientists are confused; the love of peace should not be a reason to stop development of arms.  Explain.
B.  We are not in an Arms Race but a Race in Technology.  Explain.
C.  Not to deploy nuclear energy safely and rapidly is a mistake.  Explain.
D.  What are the principles of operation of stealth technology?  What are the potential applications of such technology?
E.  What is a Cruise Missile?
F.  What are some reasons given for why the development and deployment of strategic cruise missiles is counterproductive?
G.  Describe how the energy of a nuclear explosion can be divided for a fission explosion, for a fusion bomb, and for an enhanced radiation warhead.
H.  Compare the radiation releases for enhanced and fission weapons.
I.  Discuss the risks of using an enhanced weapon as compared with conventional weapons in a limited European war.
J.  What are Particle-Beam Weapons and the likely countermeasures?
K.  What does Gervasi say about flights near or into Soviet airspace?
L.  Describe the Naval balance in the Atlantic and Mediterranean (1987).
M.  Describe the Naval balance in the Pacific and Indian Ocean (1987).
N.  Describe the balance of strategic nuclear warheads (1987).
O.  Describe U.S.S.R.'s domestic and foreign policy.
P.  What is the structure of the Soviet supreme high command.
Q.  Discuss soviet doctrine and strategy.
R.  What is the structure of the Soviet armed forces?
S.  Discuss Soviet military modernization.
T.  What do Millimeter-wave guided weapons have in common with Police Radar Detectors?  If you were to make your auto into a "Stealth-car," what attributes and features would it require to be virtually invisible to police radar?
U.  If long range (6000 miles) cruise missiles are developed and deployed, what will be the advantages and disadvantages of such a technology relative to ICBMs?  Focusing on your answer thus far, redesign the cruise missile to make a super weapon- one which has attributes to overcome the the disadvantages and emphasize the advantages (think like a weapons analyst).  What are the likely impacts of such a weapon, as you have described, on future arms control and how can the treaties be devised to make the world a more stable/safe place to live?
V.  Which missile guidance method is seen as the most promising for the cruise missile?
W.  What is the significance of a lower exhaust temperature on some cruise missiles?  How might this be used to determine whether a missile is tipped with a nuclear warhead?  Using the equation for efficiency, compute the efficiencies of the two engines discussed in the article.
X.  Explain "beta blackout," and discuss the significance of the phenomenon for defensive and offensive positions.  Relate this to EMP.
Y.  Other than a "Star Wars"-like defense system, how could the U.S. defend against an attack by cruise missile type weapons?

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  In the U.S.A., after World War II, especially during the 60's, there was an anti-technological and anti-scientific sentiment which evolved as a moral position against military applications of technology.
B.  Radar is short wave radio waves (frequency between infrared light and ordinary broadcast radio).
C.  Radar waves bounce off objects and these reflections are received by the radar detectors and are displayed as images on television-like screens.
D.  An enhanced radiation weapon is far from being a pure fusion weapon.
E.  Enhanced radiation weapons could be used to kill soldiers inside their tanks without actually destroying the tanks themselves.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Discuss Soviet policies and global ambitions.

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- Asia (Korea, Burma, Russia and China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

 

Assignment:  Read "Forces for Nuclear Attack" in Gervasi (1988:23-43).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about The Americas (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, United States, Canada) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:203-229).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Spending for Arms and Defense
A.  Qualitative Arms Race
B.  Quantitative Arms Race
C.  Military spending

The Military Innovation System and the Qualitative Arms Race
(outline of an article by _)
limiting rate of technological progress emerging as central problem for arms control

I.  Stability in Military situation
A.  any change that increases the advantage of the other side attacking first contributes to instability
B.  any change that reduces this relative advantage is stabilizing
C.  technological change sometimes increases or decreases stability of deterrent force
D.  liquid fueled ICBMs  (decreased stability) not "hardened" no instant fire capability
E.  solid fueled ICBMs instant fire capability sub-launched increased retaliatory capability

II.  Controlling qualitative arms race
A.  effective:
1.  Mutually agreed limitations on testing
2.  limits on number of permissible missile launches
3.  comprehensive nuclear- test ban changes in weapons system development "impact" analysis
4.  agreements to refrain from research are difficult to monitor
5.  but well-publicized commitments to refrain from destabilizing activities are valuable

B.  ineffective:
1.  unilateral action by professional groups (codes of ethics) forbidding participation in research aimed at injury or destruction of human life
2.  lack of consensus on what constitutes "good" and "bad" research

III.  Article Conclusions
A.  New technology has fueled the arms race
B.  not all new technology has been destabilizing
C.  less research effort - less interest to deploy new systems
1.  that are often unnecessary
2.  decrease likelihood of still more new technology developments that would give a military or political advantage to one side (or encourage one side to perceive safety in in attacking first)
D.  reduction in rate of military innovation must consider broader context than immediate political or military advantage
1.  "impact" statement requirement before each new major decision about major weapons development
2.  especially if brought into a multi or international framework
E.  limit development of destabilizing systems- ASW
F.  Decrease effort on military tech and Increase effort on problems facing humanity

One Explanation of Defense Spending
(source- U.S. News & WR, letter to editor)
Your article overlooks a very significant Cost of supplying items to the military--the specifications that accompany the order.  Your example of the $36.77 machine screw probably required:
(1)  Material certification traceable back to the particular batch of steel.
(2)  Every part dimensionally checked to a drawing, with certification that the checking was done with gauges whose calibration was traceable to the National Bureau of Standards.
(3)  Etched part number on each screw.
(4)  Individual sealed package of approved type suitable for long-term tropical storage.
(5)  Final acceptance at the vendor's plant by a military inspector.
Unless you will certify in triplicate that all of the above were waived, I believe the $36.77 price may not have been excessive.

Alan H. Schmid
Santa Cruz, California.
Letter to the Editor, U.S. News & World Report, Aug. 15, 1983

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  The Americas
(El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Ecuador, Peru,
Bolivia, Chile, Peru, United States, Canada)
The potential for conflicts exists even in the U.S.A.  Warfare is costly.  Prevention is not.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  ASUW is anti-surface warfare.  Anti-shipping missiles are effective weapons in ASUW.

Questions:
Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.solid fueled ICBMs instant
"impact" statement
cross-targeting
hard-target-kill potential
rail-mobile

B.ELF
Bear H
SS-20 launchers
LRINF
SRINF

C.Backfire
Bison
Bear
Badger
Blinder

D.SS-11, 13, 17, 18, 19, 25
SS-N-5, 6, 8, 17, 18, 20, 23
warhead mix
SNF
ALCM

E.ASW
SSBN
SAM
ABM
GIANT

F.Cobra Talon
Atlas
civil defense
early warning satellites and radars
interceptor aircraft

G.looking-glass aircraft
E-4B ABNCP (modified Boeing 747)
RV
polar magnetism and unpredictable weather
SS-18 (850 ft.)

H.Peacekeeper MX (300 ft.)
Bermuda (Oct. 1986, Yankee-Class SSBN)
AS-15
VGK
Akula, Sierra

I.SRAM
Titan
gravity bombs
Los Angeles Class attack submarines
Minuteman

J.FB-111
B-1B
Poseidon (C-3 and C-4)
Trident (C-4)
Pershing II

K.SCUD B
Scaleboard
FROG
SACEUR
Tornado

L.Honest John
Lance
Pluton
"in an advance"
battlefield-range launchers

M.self-propelled and towed howitzers and guns
ASW
Sea of Japan
Baltic sea

2.  (fill in the blanks).
A.  ASUW is ____-_______ Warfare.

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  What is the qualitative arms race and how is it controlled?  What measures are ineffective?
B.  What is the quantitative arms race and how is it controlled?
C.  Discuss why prices for items used by the military may not be excessive.
B.  Describe the Soviet nuclear forces- ICBM's, SLBM's, and bombers.
C.  Describe what several overarching strategic wartime missions would require.  Hint:  see Gervasi (1987:25).
D.  Describe the warhead mix of Soviet intercontinental attack forces, ICBMs, SLBMs, heavy bombers.
E.  Discuss Soviet and US intercontinental atack forces.
F.  Describe and compare the U.S.S.R.'s and U.S.A.'s ICBM's.
G.  Describe and compare the U.S.S.R.'s and U.S.A.'s SLBM's.
H.  Describe and compare the U.S.S.R.'s and U.S.A.'s nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
I.  Describe Soviet strategic aviation.
J.  Compare U.S. and U.S.S.R. bomber aircraft.
K.  Compare U.S. and U.S.S.R. long-range cruise missiles.
L.  Discuss the deployment and target coverage of Soviet longer range intermediate-range nuclear missile deployments.
M.  Describe Soviet shorter range missiles and their coverage.
N.  An NDSB is a nuclear depth/strike bomb.  Explain.
O.  Controlling the qualitative arms race-  Given the many possibilities for either limiting the rate of technological progress or controlling and confining the directions of a qualitative arms race or both, what methods are likely to be (1) effective and (2) ineffective?
P.  Arms Control- A Myth?  Recalling the definition of Arms Control, argue as effectively as you are able to in support of the hypothesis that Arms Control simply is not doing what disarmament advocates say it should be doing.
Q.  Has the buildup of arms over the past twenty years been consistent with Arms Control objectives?
R.  Discuss the need for military spending in terms of your understanding of the definition of arms control and the meaning of a Qualitative Arms Race and a Quantitative Arms Race.

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  Agreements to refrain from research are difficult to monitor.
B.  Not all new technology has been destabilizing.
C.  An NDSB is a nuclear depth/strike bomb.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  What is the Soviet nuclear doctrine and strategy?

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- The Americas (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Peru, United States, Canada).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

 

Assignment:  Read "Strategic Defense and Space Operations" in Gervasi (1988:45-61).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about The Americas (Suriname, Caribbean, Falkland Islands) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:230-258).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Miscellaneous Topics
A.  Strategic Minerals
B.  Terrorism
C.  National Security Polls and activism
D.  Strategic Defense and Space Operations

Strategic Minerals
(Note that many of the non-fuel minerals are essential not only for our basic industries but also for maintaining our national defense system.)

"NON-FUEL MINERALS (Source:  Bureau of Mines, U.S Department of the Interior (import-export data from Bureau of the Census).  Source:  "A Report to the People," Dec. 1979, Congressman Dan Marriott, p. 2.).  If you think importing 47% of our oil is a problem, consider this:  We import 97% of our most strategic NON-FUEL metals- namely COBALT, CHROMIUM, and MANGANESE.  Why are they so important?  Because cobalt is used for jet engines, turbines, communication systems, missiles, etc.  Manganese is vital to our steel industry.  And chromium is the basic component of stainless steel and heat resistant alloys.  In fact, 23 of the 32 minerals on which we rely as a nation are at least 50% imported.
The 1978 gap between non-fuel mineral imports and exports reached an all-time high in the U.S. of $7 billion.  One estimate indicated that by the year 2000, America's import reliance will hit $100 billion unless a change is made.  At the present time, strategic reserves of manganese and cobalt would last less than two years.  Our chromium stockpile would last approximately 4 years.
On the other hand, the Soviet Union is totally INDEPENDENT of foreign sources for those strategic minerals.  In addition, the Soviet Union and its satellite Cuba are achieving dominant political influence in Africa, where the U.S. buys most of these minerals.
U.S. NET IMPORT RELIANCE OF SELECTED MINERALS AND METALS AS A PERCENT OF CONSUMPTION IN 1978

%Major Foreign Sources (1974-1977)
Columbium100Brazil, Thailand, Canada

 

International Terrorism

(Norm Howard, Editor, Gist, December, 1980.  A quick reference aid on U.S. foreign relations, not a comprehensive policy statement.  Bureau of Public Affairs, Dept. of State.)

PROBLEM- terrorism is a worldwide problem.  Terrorist groups are difficult to penetrate because of their small size and the intense secrecy of their operations.

SCOPE OF PROBLEM- Jan. 1968 to Oct. 1980, more than 7300 international terrorist incidents.  2700 were directed at U.S. citizens or installations.  173 Americans killed.  970 wounded.  Annual cost of terrorism is estimated to be hundreds of millions of dollars.  Fear, suffering, extensive disruption of business and diplomatic activities.

SOLUTION-

1.  prediction- high priority to collection of intelligence about the activities and modus operandi of terrorists.  Analyze and disseminate available information to decrease response time to terrorist threats.

2.  prevention- Congress appropriated $40 million in FY (fiscal year) 1981 for security improvements at Foreign Service posts abroad.  That money is being used for, among other things, to strengthen perimeter controls and to build secure safe havens at each post.  U.S. Government employees assigned abroad receive additional training to prepare them for the problems of coping with terrorism and violence.

3.  Contingency planning-  Foreign Service posts has contingency plans for use in the event of terrorist incidents.  Plans reviewed annually in the Dept of State and in the field.  As circumstances change, plans are adjusted to meet new conditions.  Contingency planning--tested in frequent exercises and simulations--is used to develop rapid responses to possible terrorist events.  Coordination of contingency planning is handled through the interdepartmental working group on terrorism, composed of 28 Federal Government agencies and its executive committee.

4.  Crisis management-  Contingency planning is an essential precondition for effective management of a crisis.  The Special Coordinating Committee of the National Security Council, the highest level crisis management group in the U.S. Government, is the ultimate manager of an international terrorist incident.  The State Dept. is the lead agency for managing responses to overseas acts of terrorism, while the Justice Dept. performs this role domestically.

5.  International cooperation-  U.S. alone cannot stop terrorism; cooperation of other states is essential.  In the field of hijacking we have enjoyed a high degree of international cooperation to reduce this once common form of terrorist activity.  The International Civil Aviation Organization's mulitlateral conventions and the l978 Bonn summit declaration, in which the U.S. and six other major countries declared their intention to suspend commercial air services between their countries and any country harboring aircraft hijackers, are evidence of this international cooperation.  The International Convention Against the Taking of Hostages, adopted by the UN General Assembly in Dec. 1979, is another example of international cooperation.  The U.S. and 22 other states already have signed the Convention, which calls for states to prosecute or extradite hostage-takers.  The Convention will come into force when 22 states adhere to it.  We are actively encouraging states to sign and ratify the Convention.
Departments of State & Commerce have worked with U.S. business community to minimize the impact of terrorism on domestic and international business operations.  Guidance and advice are available to American businesses from the Commerce Working Group on Terrorism, Dept of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230.  The individual American traveler can also obtain timely information on conditions in specific countries from the Citizens Emergency Center, State Dept, Wash., DC 20520.
US Policy:  "The U.S. Government has made clear that it will make no concessions to terrorist blackmail.  We will not pay ransom or release prisoners.  We support other governments that take a similar stance.  When Americans are abducted, we look to the host government to exercise its responsibility under international law to protect all persons within its territory.  We maintain close and continuous contact with the host government during an incident, providing whatever support and assistance we can."

National Security Polls
(League of Women Voters)
What constitutes national security?
What should be the U.S. role in the world?
How can our military power best fulfill that role?
How much should the United States spend to protect its security interests at home and abroad?

Issues:
U.S.-Soviet strategic arms reduction talks
Purposes and effectiveness of existing and proposed nuclear and conventional weapons systems
U.S.-Soviet balance of power
Alternatives to war (i.e., United Nations peacekeeping measures, economic assistance, etc.)
Deployment of intermediate-range nuclear forces in Europe and its impact on U.S.-NATO relations
Defense spending levels and their impact on the economy
Other-_____

Do you think the U.S. should be tougher or more conciliatory in its policies toward the Soviet Union?
Do you think the current U.S. buildup in nuclear arms is a deterrent or a provocation to war?
Which of these events do you think would be most likely to start a nuclear conflict involving the U.S.?
One of the major powers believing it can wipe out its enemy in a "first Strike"
Conflict between smaller nations getting out of hand
Human error or miscalculation
Equipment or computer breakdown
Nuclear war is not likely under any circumstances
Uncertain
How dependent economically would you say that your local community is on military or defense-related activity?
Given what you know about the costs of current and planned defense needs and their effects on our domestic economy, do you think the level of U.S.. military expenditures should be increased, decreased, or kept about the same?
Should the U.S. enter into a nuclear war freeze agreement with the Soviet Union whereby both sides would stop the productions, testing and deployment of nuclear weapons?
Should the U.S. build intercontinental cruise missiles?
Should the U.S. build a B-1B strategic bomber to replace the aged B-52's?
Should the U.S. build a MX intercontinental ballistic missile which will be big enough to destroy Soviet missile silos?
Should the U.S. establish a space defense designed to stop Soviet missiles during launch?
Should the House of Representatives re-establish an internal security committee?
Should the U.S. provide enough military and economic aid to non-communist countries like El Salvador to defeat communist aggression?
Should the United States achieve overall military and technological superiority over the Soviet Union?
Should the U.S. create a strategic defense and a civil defense which would protect U.S. citizens against nuclear war at least as well as the Soviets defend their citizens?
Should the U.S. accept an arms control agreement which in any way jeopardizes the security of the U.S. or its allies, or locks the U.S. into a position of military inferiority?
Should the U.S. reestablish effective security and intelligence capabilities?
Should the U.S. pursue positive non-military means to roll back the growth of communism?
Should the U.S. help its allies and other noncommunist countries defend themselves against Communist aggression?
Should the U.S. maintain a strong economy and protect its overseas sources of energy and other vital raw materials?
Should the U.S. adopt a national strategy of Peace Through Strength?
A nuclear freeze would require the U.S. to abandon- B-1 bomber, trident submarine, MX missile, Cruise missile, Pershing II intermediate missile (Feb,83)

 

Union of Concerned Scientists- questions

1.  Does the United States have a "right" to be the first to use nuclear weapons?

2.  Should America's defense planning be founded on the principle that our military would use nuclear weapons in the event of conventional attack by Warsaw Pact or Soviet forces?

3.  Do you believe that the use of nuclear weapons in war is "likely" within the next ten years?

4.  How important is the arms control debate in determining your vote in federal elections?

It may be necessary to improve the capacity of NATO conventional forces in order to provide an adequate deterrent to the Warsaw Pact.

Which of the following areas of improvement would you support if and only if determined to be necessary to build a "firebreak" against the use of nuclear weapons?
-better training for our troops
-replacement of aging equipment
-construction of anti-tank obstacles
-prepositioning of supplies
-none

What is the Largest level of increased funding you would support to make such an effort possible?
-major to minor (more than 4% increase in military budget to less than 2% increase)
-would support only if funds are diverted from proposed nuclear weapons systems

5.  Would you support a treaty to prohibit anti-satellite weapons, whether in space or on Earth?

6.  Whose recommendations carry the most weight with you on defense issues?

7.  Which of the following best states your view of the military balance between the U.S. and the Soviet Union?
(US ahead, U.S.S.R. ahead, equal)

8.  In general, which of the following describes most closely the nuclear weapons policy you favor?
(spending to keep up with Russians, maintain current spending & negotiate arms reductions, increase arms reductions negotiations to  curtail major nuclear arms)

9.  Attitudes?
No First Use
MX missile
Trident submarine
Bilateral freeze
cruise missile
B-1 bomber
President's START
Neutron bomb
space weapons

10.  Do you favor the Nuclear Arms Program of the Union of Concerned Scientists?
-US & U.S.S.R. should halt introduction of weapons systems which would destroy the balance upheld over the past three decades-- MX, neutron bomb, Soviet SS-18 make a nuclear war more likely
-mutual freeze on build-up of nuclear weapons--as a step to eliminate threat of war (freeze idea= U.S. & U.S.S.R. should stop testing, building and deploying weapons which are capable of destroying our civilization)--freeze on nuclear weapons--particularly on strategic warheads and missiles, would be a positive, symbolic first step by the superpowers, signifying to the world and to each other a willingness to halt the arms race--but freeze would still mean there are 50000 nuclear weapons in the superpower arsenals so must look beyond the freeze
-adopt "no first use" of nuclear weapons (US policy is to use nuclear weapons first in the event NATO is unable to repell a non-nuclear Warsaw Pact attack.  No first use policy will reduce American reliance on nuclear weapons to defend against conventional attack.  Hence nuclear weapons now deployed near sensitive borders could be removed entirely, substantially lessening the risk that a nuclear war would erupt out of a local conflict.
-press for long term goals --UCS pressing for implementation of a comprehensive program of detailed negotiations covering all nuclear forces.
-UCS aiming for nuclear freeze and greatly reduced arsenals by the end of this decade and a negotiated end to testing of nuclear bombs and global program to curtail spread of nuclear weapons to other nations.

Doctrine of limited nuclear war- a military doctrine that the "limited" use of nuclear weapons can counter set-backs in conventional military battles and "win" the resulting conflict.  Assumes that the use of nuclear weapons could be constrained and would not escalate into a nuclear war of global magnitude.  some experts say that a nuclear exchange could not be terminated until it had escalated into a global catastrophe.  Nuclear war is more likely with the spread of nuclear weapons to many nations and to terrorist groups.  Some of these nations have a history of instability or violent confrontations with others.  Could lead to use of nuclear weapons and escalate into the nuclear involvement of the superpowers.

Failure of arms control negotiations
-failure of both sides to seriously negotiate mutual nuclear arms limitations
-past decade- arms talks sometimes used by both the superpowers as propaganda vehicles rather than as forums for good faith bargaining
-unrealistic proposals put forth which seem plausible to a public unaware of the intricacies of weapons technology and the complexity of the strategic balance, but which are known in advance to be unacceptable to the other side.
-New weapon systems advanced as "bargaining chips," but all too often they have become integral parts of the nuclear arsenal, never to be traded away.

Nuclear War (statements such as this one often accompany national security polls):  detonation of one l-megaton nuclear device within a mile and a half, all living beings would be instantly destroyed by the blast and the incredible heat.  Within the next mile, about half the people killed immediately, almost all the rest severely injured, and all the homes destroyed.  Within next two miles, five percent of people killed but half will be injured . . . over half of building would be destroyed by the resulting fire

at six miles, few would be killed, but one-quarter would be injured.  time=first few minutes.

then prolonged suffering - one-third of population would be injured, most suffering from severe burns and exposure to massive doses of radiation.  hospitals would have been destroyed  and most of doctors killed so no help available.

fallout - produce radiation sickness and death for hundreds of miles downwind.

U.S.S.R. has about 7,000 large strategic weapons of about this size plus some 13,000 smaller tactical "devices" most larger than the bomb used on Hiroshima in WWII.  U.S. has about 9,000 strategic nuclear warheads and bombs, and a tactical arsenal of about 20,000 smaller.

UCS does not call for unilateral arms reduction (they recognize the leaders in the Kremlin are not idealistic peacemakers . . . events around the world have demonstrated this all too well in recent years).

"each day, three to five new nuclear warheads are constructed on this small planet"

Sane (poll)

Should U.S. produce neutron warheads?
Should U.S. proceed with MX?
Should more tax dollars be spent on human services than on the military?

History has taught us that men seldom create armaments that are not eventually put to use

strong national defense is legitimate, and endless arms race is not.

nuclear warheads- US=30000, U.S.S.R.=20000

US has means to destroy every soviet city more than 50 times over
facts show U.S. is #1 in military strength

claims
*Arms spending is the largest form of government expenditure (excluding social security) and is the chief cause of high personal income taxes
*arms production pours dollars into the economy without adding a comparable volume of useable goods a classic formula for inflation
*labor department figures show that military spending creates fewer jobs per dollar spent than almost any other form of investment
*military spending diverts capital and skilled labor from civilian industries and saps our ability to compete in the international marketplace.  As arms spending increases our traditional economic strength fades and we fall further behind our foreign competitors.
*real push for arms race is from same sources the profits and power are going to the arms industy.
*"revolving door" policy from government to corporate ranks and back again is common practice. Prior to becoming Secretary of Defense, for example, Caspar Weinberger was Vice-President and General Counsel of the Bechtel Group, Inc. George Schultz came from Bechtel where he served as President and now the Bechtel Group has been awarded a $19.3 million contract for development of the MX missile. In the last ten years over 1900 individuals have moved between the Pentagon and NASA and their eight largest corporate contractors. McDonnell Douglas, Lockheed, General Dynamics, Boeing, etc.
*Five largest contractors spend approximately $9 million a year for Washington based government relations offices.  Boeing alone has 15 lobbyists.  Over 90 percent of these costs are charged to the pentagon and ultimately paid for by taxpayers.  (Source, Sane letter describing Gordon Adams, The Iron Triangle, Council on Economic Priorities, 1981).
*Catastrophic dimensions of nuclear war- nuclear war can bring with it anywhere from 80 million to 150 million American deaths.

ACTIVIST= AN OPINION LEADER
(being an activist)

panel discussion presenting a variety of views
radio or TV broadcasts on national security
regional conferences on national security issues
local workshops
town meetings
publications written for the layperson

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  The Americas
(Suriname, Caribbean, Falkland Islands)
High unemployment contributes to revolutions.  Are the Soviets planning to establish air and naval bases in Suriname, which is near Brazil?
Because of its large Bauxite reserves, Suriname is potentially a major producer of bauxite (aluminum ore).  In a strategic mineral crunch, the Soviets are less threatened than the U.S.
After the British battled the Argentines over the Falklands, analysts realized that smaller war ships are more vulnerable to conventional missiles, e.g., Exocets, because they lack the damage containment features of larger ships.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  A geosynchronous orbit is one in which a satellite rotates with the earth to effectively keep a satellite above a given site, such as a city on earth.  This proves especially useful for communications.  Reconnaissance satellites however are often launched in, roughly speaking, flattened eliptical orbits.  Although these orbits enable satellites to achieve low altitudes during part of their journey (they pass near the earth and then far to the side of the earth before circling for another low altitude pass), their orbits degrade quickly.  Hence ultimately these satellites burn in the atmosphere or crash.

Questions:
Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.Strategic Minerals
non-fuel minerals
gap between non-fuel mineral imports and exports
International Terrorism
National Security Polls

B.construction of anti-tank obstacles
No First Use
Bilateral freeze
Neutron bomb
"bargaining chips"

C."revolving door" policy
two-layer ABM
LPAR
GALOSH
GAZELLE

D.PILL BOX
endoatmospheric interceptors
HEN HOUSE
SPRINT
SAFEGUARD ABM

E.SPARTAN
DOG HOUSE
CAT HOUSE
Thule, Greenland

F.Flyingdales, England
PAVE PAWS
DEW Line
North Warning System
Perimeter Acquisition Radar Attack Characterization System

G.Navy's Space Surveillance System
Air Force Spacetrack
advanced ABM technologies
laser weapons
particle beam weapons

H.radio-frequency weapons
kinetic energy weapons
French SPOT (resolution 10 meters)
Pechora LPAR
disinformation

I.RFQ
coorbital impact
Project Blackeye (1961)
Vought Miniature Homing Vehicle
Space shuttle

J.geosynchronous orbit
MIDAS
Saturn V
SL-W
INTELSATS

K.Early Bird
SLV
SL-X-16
Saturn V-Class SL-W
space defense station

L.SOYUZ-TM
SOYUZ-T
SALYUT-7/COSMOS-1686
MIR
COSMOS designator

M.GLONASS
docking ports
rendezvous and manually dock with uncooperative spacecraft
arc-seconds (accuracy)
National Reconnaissance Office

N.Apollo lunar landing module
Challenger disaster
MiG-31/Foxhound
lookdown/shootdown capability
AWACS

O.Foxbat
Flagon
Flanker
Fiddler
Firebar

P.Flogger
Fulcrum
Foxhound
Delta Dart
Eagle

Q.Fighting Falcon
Hornet
Korean Airlines Flight 7
GLADIATOR
GIANT

2.  (fill in the blanks)
A.  Cobalt, a _________ mineral, is used for jet engines, turbines, communication systems, missiles, etc.
B.  Terrorist groups are difficult to penetrate because of their _____ size and the intense secrecy of their operations.

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  Describe the solution to terrorism.
B.  Discuss the failure of arms control negotiations.
C.  Describe the effects of nuclear war.
D.  Discuss how to be an activist for arms control.
E.  Describe Soviet strategic defense and space operations.
F.  Discuss ballistic missile early warning, target-tracking, and battle management radars.
G.  Discuss commercial satellites and resolution.
H.  Discuss Soviet ABM/space defense programs.
I.  Describe Soviet computer and sensor technology.
J.  Describe Soviet passive defenses.
K.  Describe Soviet ASAT operations.
L.  Describe Soviet space operations, military support from space, new space launch systems, and manned operations.
M.  Describe new Soviet space launch vehicles, and space program costs.
N.  Describe Soviet air defenses and interceptor aircraft.
O.  Describe North American Air Defense interceptor aircraft.
P.  Describe Soviet air defense (interceptor) aircraft and radar capabilities.
Q.  What is meant by "fully interpret?"  What is the target detection range (distance in km) of a U.S. E-3A AWACS?  Hint:  Gervasi (1987:57-58).
R.  Describe Soviet strategic surface to air missiles.
S.  Explain the statement- "Study peace and conflict resolution rather than merely studying war."  Discuss how wars start and end.
T.  Discuss the impact of increasingly complex terrorist acts which in the future may involve or utilize advanced weapons, perhaps even an ICBM or nuclear device, on arms control and peace.
U.  How could you be an activist who would further the three aims of arms control?
V.  Comment on the public opinion polls above, or alternatively, write a brief essay on any topic or issue (pertaining to this course) of your choosing.

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  U.S. E-3A AWACS, operating at 40,000 feet, can track as many as 600 targets simultaneously and can fully interpret more than 240 of them.
B.  A geosynchronous orbit enables a satellite to maintain its position above a site such as a single city.
C.  When an "agent" reveals a classified document to the media and it is "published," the effect is similar to passing the document to many friendly and hostile goverments.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Describe the limits of the Soviet strategic defenses and space operations.

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- The Americas (Suriname, Caribbean, Falkland Islands).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

 

Assignment:  Read "Forces for Theater Operations" in Gervasi (1988:63-93).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Europe (Albania, Yugoslavia) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:259-272).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

* * * Submit A Proposal (Outline)
For Your Proposed Research Paper or Project (or internship) * * *
* * * For reference materials and research ideas for your paper or project, review the list of free or low cost materials available from the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) below. * * *

MX
A.  Overview of basing options
Note:  The current policy is to base MX in Minuteman silos.  After the MX was developed, a program was initiated for the development and deployment of Mobile Midgetman.  Midgetman is a smaller and mobile missile.
B.  AAAS information.
<>insert AAAS information p. 1
<>insert AAAS information p. 2
<>insert AAAS information p. 3
MX and Historical Basing Options
The "Peacekeeper" MX (Missile eXperimental)- a new intercontinental ballistic missile developed by the U.S. Air Force.  The once proposed MX basing system would have consisted of 200 missiles and 4,600 shelters.  Each missile would have its own track; each track would have 23 shelters.  Shelters would have been placed 1 mile apart.  Every missile would have a mobile transporter-launcher to move it to its shelter.  Even under attack, the mobile transporter launcher could "dash" it to another shelter and be ready to launch on command.  This once proposed system would have 23 shelters for each missile, thus confusing the soviets and leaving them with the option of hitting all 23 shelters in order to destroy one missile.  MX- size:  71 feet long, eight feet in diameter, weight=190,000 pounds.  MX- range: 6000 miles.  MX carries ten nuclear warheads per missile, each warhead is independently targetable.  Cost for the above system to develop and deploy= 33 billion.  Yearly costs= 425 million.  Cost for deployment of the Minuteman= 40 billion; yearly cost 340 million.  Cost for B-52 bombers= 50 billion.  Development of the MX started in Sept. 1979.  First flight was in 1983.  First partial deployment has been expected to be in 1986.  Complete deployment has been expected to be finished by 1989.  Total area of fenced land closed to the public for the above basing scheme would have been 21,200 acres but would reportedly coexist with wildlife, mining, ranching, and recreational endeavors.  Minuteman and Titan were built up in the early 1960s.  MX would update our defenses by thirty years.  The MX was to have provided our nation with nuclear forces that can clearly survive an attack and thereby deter an enemy from attacking.

How the MX missile fits into the U.S. defense strategy

MX comments
Air Force- "man's biggest project"
Lt. Gen. Burke- "absolutely necessary for national defense"
Jeremy Stone (Federation of American Scientists)- "arms control disaster"
Pres. Carter- Plan:
200 real missiles
4600 concrete and steel shelters in deserts of Utah and Nevada
12,000 miles of new road
two major Air Force bases
scores of small support and maintenance bases
tens of billions of dollars
Deterrence to Russian strike
about 6000 warheads in Soviet arsenal
US has little civil defense or air defense (all most entirely open to Soviet attack)
US relies on counter-threat (retaliation) for deterrence of Soviet attack
Retaliation threat depends on a survivable force.  If a Soviet surprise attack could destroy the ability of U.S. to retaliate then deterrence would have failed and America would be open to annihilation.

USAU.S.S.R.
missileminuteman IIIMXSS-17SS-19SS-18
#warheads3104610

By mid-1980s, Soviets have enough big and new (accurate) missiles to destroy the U.S. land based missile force (Minuteman system) with a fraction of its bombs.

MX.  "Defense officials have called the increasing vulnerability of our land-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM's) "the single most serious strategic problem we face at the present time."  Among the strengths of the MX system is its DETERRENT value.
It needs to be remembered that maintenance of a strategic balance has little to do with "how many times you can destroy the other guy."  It has to do with maintaining at least equality in weapon strength, so that a stalemate is the best any potential adversary can hope for.
The MX system has been analyzed in almost every conceivable situation we might face.  Under Secretary of Defense William J. Perry states, "In each case . . . when the Soviets have expended all of their ICBM's, . . . we still have some ICBM's surviving."  Without MX, by the mid-1980's the Soviets will be able to destroy our Minuteman force completely- and the Soviets will be the ones with something left over.
Basing the MX system in Utah and Nevada would have a tremendous impact on both states for good or for bad.  If the "boom town" effects of the project can be effectively dealt with, Utah stands to gain as many as 17,000 new jobs during the construction phase.  The number of PERMANENT jobs that the system will provide after its completion is probably in the neighborhood of 4,000 to 5,000.  And that doesn't include the jobs created for businesses that support the permanent installations.  Nor does it include the additional jobs that could be created at Hill Air Force Base if it is chosen as a depot for the system.
Of the more than $33 billion to be spent, roughly one-third of that would be spent in Utah.  Once the system is built, it will cost about $1.3 million annually to maintain it.
Given the strategic advantage of the MX, our efforts should now be to closely oversee the planning and construction phases so that there are no negative effects on Utah while it plays an important role in national security.
Source: "A Report to the People," Dec. 1979, Congressman Dan Marriott, p. 3.
<>insert ota mx missile basing

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  Europe (Albania, Yugoslavia)
Major ethnic groups are drawn together by the advantages of unity and divided by their desire for ethnic independence.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  Peacekeeper is another name for the MX missile.  It has superb accuracy.
Several other terms to remember are:  Wave-  disturbance or oscillation propagated with definite velocity from point to point in a medium photon- a quantum of electromagnetic radiation.  CEP-  circle error probable.  MAPS-  multiple aim-point system.  MIRV-  multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicle.  MPS- multiple protective structure.
Given the recent changes in the USSR, Poland, Germany, etc., the Warsaw Pact isn't what it used to be.  Even so, the USSR has its vast military system and now seeks to maintain control over its forces in the midst of economic and political change.

Questions:

Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.  MX
basing options
Mobile Midgetman
"Peacekeeper"
Minuteman and Titan
TVDs

B.lethality
self-propelled gun
longer artillery range
"reversal of truth" Hint:  Gervasi (1987:63)
MRL
JSTARS

C.JTFP
ATACMS
FULCRUM and FLANKER (look down/shoot down radar)
SAM
BM-27
FENCER

D.Panzer
MLRS
M-1976
D-1, D-20
M-198 155 mm howtizer
T-72

E.T-55
FLOGGER G
FROGFOOT
FITTER K
T-80
T-64/72/80

F.ACV
POMORNIK-Class Amphibious version
PELIKAN-Class ACV
AIST-Class ACV
WIG
ORLAN-Class WIG

G.coastal minesweeping
VSTOL aircraft
MIKE SSN
SSGN
KILO-Class diesel attack submarines
NSWP

H.SOVREMENNYYs
UDALOYs
HELIX B
IVAN ROGOV-Class ships
helicopter-capable
reactive armor

I.high velocity smooth bore tank gun
FULCRUM
APC
IFV
levels of readiness
BMD armored vehicle

J.APC/IFV
SSM
AAA
armor
shorter range missiles
fire support

K.equipment deployment patterns
BMP IFV
BTR
ATGM
GT-T/MT-LB
"floating decimal point" Hint:  Gervasi (1987:75)

L.NSWP
VTA
CANDID
COCK
CUB
CINC

M.IR jammers and suppressors
IR decoy dispensers
more armor on helicopters
NSWP support
sea-denial operations
Compare USSR and US surface ships.

N."visual distortion and selectivity" Hint:  Gervasi (1987:83)
supersonic antiship cruise missile
surveillance helicopter
CAPTOR
SLMM
Spetsnaz

O.GRU
CW
psychological warfare
SEAL
Delta Force
Special Forces

P.Special Operations
Dry-deck shelter-capable submarines
BIGEYE
SCUD-B ground contamination pattern
CBR (chemical, biological, and radiological)
neutralization and decontamination
Corvette
Coastal escorts and fast patrol boats

2.  __________ (fill in the blanks).
US relies on counter-threat (retaliation) for __________ of Soviet attack.
Retaliation threat depends on a __________ force.
A self-propelled gun is one which can be driven rather than _____.

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  Describe USSR and US artillery.
B.  Describe USSR and US main battle tanks.
C.  Describe USSR and US artillery.
D.  Describe Soviet ground forces equipment.
E.  Describe Soviet mobile tactical SAM air defense of the battlefield.
F.  Describe Soviet and US tactical surface-to-air missiles.
G.  Describe air force developments (SAF).
H.  Compare USSR and US tactical aircraft, combat and support helicopters.
I.  Compare USSR and US attack submarines.
J.  Desribe USSR naval force developments.
K.  Describe USSR naval aviation.
L.  Describe USSR naval mine warfare.
M.  Describe USSR chemical warfare.
N.  Compare Warsaw Pact and NATO forces.  Hint:  Gervasi (1989:92-93)

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  It needs to be remembered that maintenance of a strategic balance has little to do with "how many times you can destroy the other guy."  It has to do with maintaining at least equality in weapon strength, so that a stalemate is the best any potential adversary can hope for.
B.  R & D is research and development.
C.  Antiaircraft artillery is AAA.
D.  The Patriot surface-to-air missiles has a speed of Mach 3.9.
E.  The Fencer, Flogger, Fitter, Foxbat, Fishbed, Fulcrum, and Frogfoot are USSR tactical aircraft.
F.  The F-111, Phantom, Corsair, Eagle, Fighting Falcon, and Thunderbolt are U.S. tactical aircraft.
G.  The Havoc, Hokum, Hind, Hip, Hook, Halo, Helix, and Hormone are USSR combat and support helicopters.
H.  The Apache, Sea Cobra, Huey Cobra, Sea Knight, Iroquois, Super Sea Stallion, Black Hawk, and Chinook are U.S. combat and support helicopters.
I.  The Tango, Charlie II, Victor III, Alfa, Oscar, Kilo, Mike, Sierra, Yankee, and Akula are USSR attack submarines.
J.  The Los Angeles, Sturgeon, Skipjack, Skate, and Permit are US attack submarines.
K.  Sarin, soman, and V-series are nerve agents.
L.  Mustard, lewisite, and a mixture of the two are blister agents.
M.  Phosgene is a choking agent.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Answer one of the below.
A.  Describe the Soviet forces for theater operations.
B.  Briefly describe the historical basing options for the MX.  Briefly describe the current scheme for basing the MX (suggestion- library research or call your U.S. Congressional Representative's office).  Describe the advantages and disadvantages of the basing mode selected.  Discuss the impacts of these pros/cons on arms control.  How was the basing mode selected?  How should it be selected?

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- Europe (Albania, Yugoslavia).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

******************************
Have you submitted your outline or
rough draft to your instructor of
the research paper or project you
plan to do?
******************************

 

 

Assignment:  Read "Readiness, Mobility, and Sustainability" and "Research Development and Production" in Gervasi (1988:94-103, 104-123).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Europe (Spain, Catalonia, Germany) in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:273-287).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Modelling the MX
A.  Models and simulation
B.  Flexible response modes of MX/ MAPS AND D2P
C.  Example Research Paper
<>insert monte-carlo est. of pi
<>insert flexible response modes of mx . . .
<>insert example research paper

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):  Europe
(Spain, Catalonia, Germany)
Tribal or ethnic and historical rivalries lead to local or regional conflicts which sometimes escalate into wider conflicts.  Historical rivalries tend to be forgotten until someone or some group finds a way to gain an advantage by remembering.
Now, East and West Germany are reunited.  After they sort things out economically and politically, watch closely for any groups which remember old hostilities.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  A protracted nuclear war is one which is not over in a matter of hours (or days).  It is nuclear war of a type which requires reloading missiles into missile launchers.  New targets are selected or old targets which suffered inadequate damage are to be retargeted.  Such a war would likely escalate to prevent the influence of "neutral nations."

Questions:
Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.Readiness
mobility
sustainability

B.air-cushion landing craft
POL
convoys
monte-carlo estimate

C.pipelines
NSWP
SRF
flexible response modes

D.stockpile
fuel (petrol)
LOC interdiction

2.  ______ duty was so dangerous in Afghanistan that the Soviets awarded pennants for "Courage and Valor" to truckdrivers who completed a specified number of trips.

3.  Answer two of the following questions:
A.  Of what value are simulations and models in the policy making process of formulating National Security/Defense plans?
B.  Think through the aspects of a simulation which involved a newer, smaller, more mobile missile which could replace the MX and Minuteman missiles, and describe the advantages and disadvantages of a land based deterrent force founded on such a missile.  Relax the assumption (land based), and discuss the basing options you would consider in designing an improved deterrent force.  Why would or would not you want your system to have hardened target kill capabilities?  Answer the question from your own perspective, and then from the perspective of the three tenets of arms control.
C.  Critique the competing definitions of arms control.

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  The Condor, Cock, Candid, and Cub are USSR military transport aircraft.
B.  The C-5B Galaxy, C-17, C-141B Starlifter, and C-130 A/H Hercules are US military transport aircraft.
C.  According to the DIA, reloading missiles at sea would be "unlikely, if not impossible during a nuclear war."  Source:  Gervasi (1987:94).

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Describe USSR readiness, mobility and sustainability.

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- Europe (Spain, Catalonia, Germany).  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

Assignment:  Read "Political-Military and Regional Policies" and "The U.S. Response" in Gervasi (1988:124-143, 145-160).  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Europe ("The Central Front:  World War III") in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:288-310).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

The Defense Budget and Foreign Policy:  Role of Congress
(outline of the article by Les Aspin)

Congress "controls the purse strings" but has refused to do so.

Could have ended Viet Nam War by refusing to fund it.

Constituent pressure
defense industries and jobs
cutback size of military force in Europe- little impact on district

Congressmen- won't take stand on technical issues (pin down) but vote on broad categories

Congress- political institution, rational arguments carry little weight unless politically organized.

Congress lacks expertise in specialized areas- weapons, Arms Control

But even if SALT treaties, etc. didn't have to be ratified by the Senate, Congress would set the mood as to the limits within which an acceptable treaty must fall.

Congress can manipulate procedure, can't do much else because of constituent cross pressures, lack of time and lack of expertise.

Chipping Away At The Bargains
(outline of the article by R. James Woolsey)

Arms control agreements are often reduced in significance because of buildups, etc., in other areas.

ABM (Safeguard) 1969 controversy- shift in national strategy (?) from preventing nuclear war to toward damage limitation.  The latter implies a willingness to accept greater risks of nuclear exchange.

Limit ABM defense to each sides capitol

April of 1970- Soviets accept
June 17, 1970- Senate Armed Services Committee vote 11-7 to delete funding of area defense sites.

Safeguard- a bargaining chip that was almost built.

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):
Europe ("The Central Front:  World War III")
The reunification of East and West Germany, the decline of the Warsaw Pact, etc., places a different set of constraints on WW III.  For example, economic and ethnic constraints will reshape the USSR.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  Political struggles at the congressional level are often over whether to enhance national security at the expense of "bread and butter" social programs.  How much security is too much, how little security is too little?  Political gains are sometimes achieved less expensively by undermining the aims of competing political bodies.  For example, USSR strategy has been to undermine the Strategic Defense Initiative.  They are concerned about the technological spinoffs from star wars research that would give the US an economic windfall or boost.  Recently, the US has been experimenting with funding projects in private industry which might result in spin-ons to the defense program.

Questions:
Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A."Chipping Away At The Bargains"
ABM (Safeguard) 1969 controversy
"naive" Hint:  Gervasi (1987:127,18)

B.KGB
Soviet military power projection
military exercises

C.Hokum and Havoc
rotary-wing, air-to-air combat capability
total obligational authority

D.Bear H Bombers missions against North America
Bear F ASW aircraft from Cuban airfields
F-15 interceptors

E.technology security
COCOM

2.  A.  Safeguard was a bargaining ____ that was almost built.  (fill in the blank)

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  Congress is lobbied by numerous interest groups to either make or not make choices.  Representatives and Senators have their own constituents to be concerned about as well; sometimes compromises are made to get re-elected.  How can these legislators make decisions which are in the public interest and in the interest of national security, arms control, and world peace.  Discuss the conflicts and how they may be overcome.
B.  What is the meaning and significance of the term "bargaining chip"?  What does it mean when one says that a bargaining chip was nearly built?
C.  Describe Soviet global power projection.
D.  Gervasi (1987:155) states that the CIA has threatened U.S. security by illegal narcotics traffic.  If the CIA has had any involvement with drug traders, and assuming it was for the purpose of getting inside a drug-financed paramilitary organization, would it be counterproductive of the CIA to produce evidence to clear itself?  Discuss.

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A.  Congress can influence foreign policy, e.g., whether to war or withhold funds, etc.
B.  According to Congressman Les Aspin, Congress lacks expertise in specialized areas- weapons, Arms Control.
C.  Arms control agreements are often reduced in significance because of buildups, etc., in other areas.

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Answer one of the below.
A.  Describe political-military and regional policies of the USSR.
B.  Describe the U.S. response to Soviet military power.  Critique this response.

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Write an intelligence briefing for the area studied in your assigned reading- Europe ("The Central Front:  World War III").  Briefly discuss the following:  Source of Conflict; Who's Involved; Geography; History; Local Politics; Participant Strategies and Goals; Superpower Interest (Political, Military, Historical, Economic); Potential Outcomes; Cost of War; Other Observations.  Then explicitly identify U.S. interests.  Lastly, recommend a policy (a U.S.A. Arms Control and Defense Management Policy) which will, in the assigned area studied, and during the coming decade:

1.  Reduce probability of war
2.  Reduce costs of preparation for war
3.  Reduce death and destruction if control fails and war comes

 

 

 

Assignment:  For our area studies (i.e., intelligence briefing) in this lesson, read about Earth- Data on Wars Present and Potential ("The World in Conflict," "The Ability of the World's Nations to Wage War") in Dunnigan and Bay (1986:311-418).  Next, read the material in the syllabus for this lesson.  Finally, answer the questions at the end of this lesson before proceeding to the next lesson.

Striking New Deals in Arms Control

* * * Submit Your Completed Research Paper or Project * * *

* * * Complete The Written and Laboratory Final Examination * * *

A Framework For A New National Security Policy
(Source- Union of Concerned Scientists)
Nuclear superiority is a meaningless goal when so many thousands of weapons are already in existence. (my criticism is that this statement is not true since superiority in ability to deliver warheads on target to destroy hardened sites can make a difference, etc.).

New policy must consider these realities:

"1.  The U.S. now has 9,500 strategic nuclear weapons and the U.S.S.R. has 7,700.  There is rough equality between their strategic arsenals.  No defense against these weapons exists.  Neither side, now or in the foreseeable future, can disarm the other in a successful first strike.

2.  At present, NATO doctrine includes the use of tactical nuclear weapons to repel a non-nuclear attack.  The use of such weapons on the battlefield can swiftly escalate to all-out nuclear war which would devastate much of the Northern Hemisphere.  Therefore nuclear weapons can serve no rational military purpose in conflict between the superpowers.

3.  The NATO Alliance has the manpower, economic wealth, and technological prowess to mount an adequate conventional defense against a non-nuclear attack by the Soviet Union.

4.  A nuclear war is most likely to begin as an outgrowth of conventional war, through miscalculation, or as an act of desperation.

5.  The advent of new nuclear weapons that are more threatening heightens the risk of an attempted pre-emptive attack.  Many are less verifiable than those now deployed, making arms control treaties more difficult to achieve."

In light of above facts, new national security policy must be dedicated to- "preventing the use of any and all nuclear weapons, (and) reducing drastically the destructive power that threatens our existence . . ..  The following coordinated initiatives are urgently needed to enhance the security of the U.S. and its allies:

1.  The NATO Alliance should, at this time, announce its intention to adopt a policy of No First Use of Nuclear Weapons in Europe.  This will necessitate the development, over several years, of conventional strength so that a non-nuclear attack by the Soviet Union can be repelled without reliance on nuclear weapons.  While strengthening its forces, NATO should withdraw forward-based tactical nuclear weapons.  The Soviet Union should withdraw its own tactical nuclear weapons as well.

2.  The United States should announce its intention to adopt a policy of No First Use of Nuclear Weapons elsewhere in the world.  As in Europe, such a policy will be contingent on the development of adequate conventional strength.

3.  The U.S. and the U.S.S.R. should immediately begin negotiations covering strategic and medium-range nuclear forces.  These should aim for greatly reduced arsenals by the end of the decade, attained by continued and verifiable reductions.  Massive cuts can be made which would still leave each side with adequate retaliatory strength.  Negotiations on the tactical nuclear forces are important as well.

4.  In order to provide an environment conducive to successful negotiations, the U.S. should, at this time:  i) announce its readiness to engage in an immediate bilateral freeze on the build-up of strategic nuclear weapons, and on the flight testing of new strategic missiles; and ii) announce its intention to renew negotiations leading to a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty covering all nuclear explosions.

5.  The U.S. and the U.S.S.R. should develop and implement a joint program for curtailing the spread of nuclear weapons.  Such efforts will lack credibility if the two superpowers fail to curtail their own arms race."

The foregoing has been endorsed by, among other people, more than 500 of the 1400 members of the National Academy of Science.  For the complete statement, contact the Union of Concerned Scientists, 26 Church Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02238.  Board of Directors- Chairman, Henry W. Kendall, Prof. of Physics, MIT.

Scarce Resources On A Shrinking Planet

Limits to Growth
!!FOOTNOTE 1:Donella H. Meadows, et al. (New York:  Universe Books, 1972).
Because the world's supply of natural resources is finite, and the consumption of those resources is expanding at an alarming rate, one can deduce that the present rates of economic and population growth cannot continue for long.  In 1970 a team of researchers began an investigation of worldwide growth and projected the consequences of continued consumption of limited resources.  In The Limits to Growth five basic factors that determine and limit growth were examined and a computer model was devised.  A major finding of The Limits to Growth is that our planet Earth probably cannot "support present rates of economic and population growth much beyond the year 2100, if that long, even with advanced technology."  If this finding proves correct, then greater population levels may well exceed the global carrying capacity; millions could die of starvation, cold or adverse effects of pollutants.
Two ideas are characteristic of the decision making process of our economic, social and political institutions.  One, decisions are made to optimize our present or near-term position while future benefits are substantially discounted.  One cannot logically conclude that the rapid depletion of oil supplies to create present benefits will result in long term (distant future) benefits.  Hence the optimization of short term benefits does not lead directly to the improvement of one's future.  Two, decisions often reflect the presumption that continued growth in population and material goods output is desirable.  Present day business ethics, for example, are centered on growth and expansion rather than on a "no growth" (equilibrium) philosophy.  Some scholars seek to destroy the "growth" philosophy.  They would replace it with the notion that a stable population (and material goods output) is necessary if society is to achieve essential social and environmental goals.
The five interacting factors utilized in the "Limits to Growth" model are (1) population increase, (2) agricultural production, (3) nonrenewable resource depletion, (4) industrial output, and (5) pollution generation.  The five factors interact to determine and limit growth on this planet.
!!FOOTNOTE 2:Gerard K. O'Neil and Brian O'Leary at Princeton University.
Some scholars suggest that because man need not be confined to the planet Earth, the Limits to Growth concerns are not so valid.  It may be possible (and probably expensive) to construct cities in space where workers can collect energy and transport or transmit needed resources to people on Earth.  This solution may be limited however, by the ability of earthlings to cooperate to solve complex problems.  O'Toole (p. xi) suggests that besides "limits to resources and growth," we may also have limits to "political, technological, and economic options open to society, limits to the ability of the American system to respond . . . and . . . limits to (human) imagination."

!!FOOTNOTE 3:Gregg Hoffman, Physics 100 Lecture Notes, Dept. of Physics, University of Utah.

Exponential Growth
There is a story told in France, a riddle actually.  A farmer has a pond and in the center grows a lily pad.  The lily pad doubles in size every day.  The farmer knows he must cut it before it covers the whole pond, but decides to wait until the lily pad covers half the pond, then cut.  How much time does the farmer have to cut the lily after it covers half the pond?  He has only one day, because the day after the lily pad covers half the pond it will double and cover the whole pond.
This is an example of something called exponential growth.  The term exponential refers to the fact the lily pad size increased by a factor of 2X where X is the number of days and is in the exponent.  Many things in nature can behave like this, though few do because of opposing forces (e.g., growth of bacteria).  The world population doubles roughly every 30 years.
Why should this explain the oil crunch?  The consumption of oil in the country is constantly growing, doubling about once every 15 years.  Let's suppose it has been that way since we began using oil (it hasn't, but suppose).  We would go along comfortably for the first 60 years or so (maybe 75) until we'd used up half the oil.  How long till we use it all?  15 years!  This oversimplified example illustrates the point that with the kind of growth rates we have in energy consumption, we may begin to have many problems which seem to spring from nowhere.  Supplies that seemed plentiful or at least adequate will fail to meet growing demands.  Adjustments in one place will cause shortages in another.  All this is tied rather strongly to the idea of unrestrained growth and the continuing increase of the demand for energy.

Public Decision Making and Ethics
In a republic where democratic principles are applied, many decisions are made that blend policies that have good and bad affects on different sectors and subcultures of the society as a whole.  Decision makers are elected and held accountable politically at election time every few years; if their actions are contrary to public opinion and they offer no good explanation they are replaced with another politician.  Elected officials--such as Congressmen and Senators, are apparently better informed on issues at the national forefront and are therefore better able to make wise decisions (so the argument goes).  Some policy areas pose particular problems for decision makers--areas where an inadequate decision carries an inherent risk to the public.  Nuclear power accidents, for example, may result in damage to people and property.  Perhaps in policy areas where a risk or uncertainty exists that, for a given decision, may result in an undue burden on society then decision makers should promote public debate and education followed by a voter decision.
Arms control and defense management's decision makers may do well to study models of ethics to heighten their sensitivity to the needs of society.  Several models in ethics or related to ethics are described by Frohock, five of which are discussed here.
!!FOOTNOTE 4:Frohock, pp. 188-189.
I.  Politics may be evaluated in the terms of (1) consent- that "people know what is good for them" and will choose, and (2) worthy of consent -- that "some things are good for them whether they want them or not."
II. According to Frohock, "Pareto Optimality is an evaluative criterion that states this:  A social system is optimal (in its best state) if no one person can be made better off without making at least one person worse off" (p. 207).
III.  Public interest is always a difficult term unless defined in some specific way.  For example, Frohock defines "public interest" in terms of either a numerical, structural, or mass public interest (pp. 209-211).
!!FOOTNOTE 5:Ibid., p. 214.

!!FOOTNOTE 6:Ibid., p. 211-212.
IV.  The public interest can be defined in terms of the theory of primary goods and "can be involved not only in providing primary goods; but also in distributing them."  Primary goods are those necessary for the maintenance of life (food, basic clothing, minimal housing, security) " . . . and . . . "for the acquisition of other goods (education)."
V.  John Rawl's theory of justice states that if a rational individual who knows not what position he will occupy in life (called "original position") then that person will choose two overnight principles:
!!FOOTNOTE 7:Frohock, p. 240.

They are (1) equal rights to the most basic liberties compatible with
a similar liberty for all, and (2) an arrangement of social and economic
inequalities that is (a) to the greatest benefit of the least advantaged
consistent with a concern for the well-being of future generations, and (b)
attached to offices and positions open to all under conditions of fair
equality of opportunity.

Rawl's theory has been discussed in terms of justice-as-fairness and has several advantages over utilitarianism.
The world can be a better--or a worse place to live; it is up to all of us.  Policy analysis and education are logical prerequisites to policy advocacy.  Ethics play an important role but each person has different values.  Unless a person carefully studies an issue and then decides which path is right (for the individual), one rarely knows what their values are.  For this reason you, the reader, will be asked to plot out an overall defense policy for America--pretend you are the President, Congress and the Supreme Court, and you have access to public opinion and to the scientific community.

Comments On Reliable Information With Sufficient Accuracy
After reading Soviet Military Power and the critique by Gervasi, how much confidence would you place in following three historical statements?
1.  "An analysis of U.S. military forces finds that they so far exceed actual military needs as to be unsafe for the nation and the world.  A program for prudently decreasing these forces is hereby described." (Philip Morrisson and Paul F. Walker, "A New Strategy for Military Spending," Scientific American, Vol. 239 No. 4 (Oct. 1978), p. 48.)

2.  "The Soviet Union has the largest--and by far the best-equipped army in the world.  In strategic weapons, it is at least the equal of the United States and continuing to advance.  The Russian Navy, once weak and limited to coastal defense, now is able to challenge America in the world's oceans.  And the Soviets are far ahead of the U.S. in civil defense." ("How Strong Is Russia?," U.S. News & World Report, February 11, 1980, p. 17.

3.  Recent Soviet developments include- flight testing of the Blackjack swing-wing bomber, a giant aircraft that is believed to be larger, faster and more versatile than the U.S. B-1 bomber, a missile comparable to the U.S. MX in size and destructive power, small missiles which are transporter-mobile, nuclear tipped cruise missiles, T-80 tanks have been deployed in large numbers (1900 as of 1983), expansion of the Soviet forces from 180 to 190  Army divisions (including improved artillery, armored fighting vehicles and other weaponry), development of two more advanced air-to-air warplanes (US News & World Report- March 21, 1983, p.34.).

Sufficiently Accurate Intelligence
To achieve high confidence intelligence, the U.S. and U.S.S.R. have invested in their intelligence organizations.  Although in recent years, the CIA has been criticized for covert operations, etc., in my view it deserves more complete funding.  If competing nations want to undermine the US intelligence service, they need only to launch a campaign involving the media, college students, etc.  An underfunded CIA is likely to misunderstand "Soviet aggression," etc.  Given a world in which the CIA, KGB, etc., watch each others nations closely to verify compliance of arms control agreements, etc., conflicts are less likely and peace becomes attainable.
Intelligence must be sufficiently accurate for the risky decisions it is based on.

The Z Document
The Z document on The Soviet's Terminal Crisis, published in the winter issue of Daedalus, and reviewed in The New York Times (Thursday, January 4, 1990), cautions readers about the transition the Soviets are going through:
Nor should we forget that Communism, though a disaster in almost every creative domain, has always been supremely successful at one thing:  resourcefulness and tenacity in holding onto its monopoly of power.
The Soviet world's transition to normality will be a long time coming.  The party, though now dyed with the hues of glasnost and democratization, will cling to the bitter end, like some poisoned tunic of nessus, around the bodies of nations it has enfolded in its embrace for so many decades.

Part Two:  Area Studies (Intelligence Briefing):
Earth- Data on Wars Present and Potential
("The World in Conflict," "The Ability of the World's Nations to Wage War")
Yes, our world is in conflict.  Weapons vary in their lethality.  These conflicts are costly.  Many people suffer.  Who cares?  You.

Words To Know
To understand Arms Control and Defense Management, it is helpful to discuss the commonly used vocabulary.  Mistakes are always paid for in casualties.

Questions:
Short Answer (e.g., a paragraph)

1.  Briefly, what is the meaning (what is it) and significance (why is it important) of the following terms?  (Pick two groups from below)

A.Peace
Prosperity
Freedoms
Democracy
Capital ownership

B.ethics
"consent"
"worthy of consent"
"Pareto Optimality"
John Rawl's theory of justice

C.finite resources
The Limits to Growth
"no growth" philosophy
Exponential Growth
Z document

2.  Mistakes in arms control and defense management are always paid for in __________.  (fill in the blank)

3.  Answer one of the following questions:
A.  What is the current situation in arms control?  Discuss major treaties or proposals along with observations on current and forthcoming weapons and systems.
B.  What is your evaluation of the current arms control proposals/treaties.
C.  Discuss the lethality of various weapons.

4.  True or False? (answer three of the following)
A, B, C.  (write your own true statements).

Short Essay (e.g., one or two pages)

5.  Write an essay on "Striking New Deals in Arms Control."  Consider the limits to growth issues, ethics, and the supreme role of intelligence in bargaining, verification, etc.

Brief (e.g., one page)

6.  Summarize the important points in your reading of "A Databank on Wars Present and Potential."  Critique these from the perspective of "things as they are," "things as they could be at their best given current constraints," and "things as they should be (the ideal)."

<>start-insert p. 15.4 how to . . .. final examination . . .

<>insert 16.8 acronyms and glossary from ota
<>insert 16.9-13 glossary from ota

 

 

 

Sources of Arms Control Information etc.
In earlier syllabi, I listed several organizations, publications, etc., where you could obtain information on arms control and defense managment.  Now, there is a service available which will ease your efforts to access vital information.  Please write to the following with your inquiries:

ACCESS:  A Security Information Service
1730 M Street NW, Suite 605
Washington, DC  20036
202-785-6630

 

 

Recommended readings from Scientific American:

Jerome B. Wiesner and Herbert F. York, "National Security and the Nuclear-Test Ban," Scientific American Vol. 211, No. 4, Oct. 1964, pp. 27-35., Offprint # 319.

Herbert F. York, "The Great Test-Ban Debate," Scientific American Vol. 227, No. 5, Nov. 1972, pp. 15-23, Offprint # 342.

George M. Woodwell, "The Ecological Effects of Radiation," Scientific American Vol. 208, No. 6, June 1963, Offprint # 159.

Herbert Scoville, Jr., "The SALT Negotiations," Scientific American Vol. 237, No. 2, August l977, pp. 24-31, Offprint # 696.

Ted Greenwood, "Reconnaissance and Arms Control," Scientific American Vol. 228, No. 2, Feb. 1973, pp. 14-25, Offprint # 346.

Les Aspin, "The Verification of the SALT II Agreement," Scientific American Vol. 240, No. 2, Feb. 1979, pp. 38-45, Offprint # 713.

Herbert Scoville, Jr., "Missile Submarines and National Security," Scientific American Vol. 226, No. 6, June 1972, pp. 15-27, Offprint # 344.

Richard L. Garwin, "Anti-submarine Warfare and National Security," Scientific American Vol. 227, No. 1, July 1972, pp. 14-25, Offprint # 345.

Fred M. Kaplan, "Enhanced-Radiation Weapons," Scientific American Vol. 238, No. 5, May 1978, pp. 44-51, Offprint # 3007.

John Parmentola and Kosta Tsipis, "Particle Beam Weapons," Scientific American Vol. 240, No. 4, April 1979, pp. 54-65, Offprint # 3039.

Philip Morrison and Paul F. Walker, "A New Strategy for Military Spending," Scientific American Vol. 239, No. 4, Oct. 1978, pp. 48-61, Offprint # 3020.

Kosta Tsipis, "Cruise Missiles," Scientific American Vol. 236, No. 2, February 1977, pp. 20-29, Offprint #    .

 

 

 

Recommended Readings

Brogan, Patrick (1990).  The Fighting Never Stopped:  A Comprehensive Guide To World Conflict Since 1945 (New York:  Vintage Books, A Division of Random House, Inc.).

Colen, Donald J.  (1988).  The ABCs of Armageddon:  The Language of the Nuclear Age (New York:  Pharos Books).

Dunnigan, James F. (1982).  How To Make War (New York:  William Morrow and Co., Inc.).

Dunnigan, James F. (1988).  How To Make War:  A Comprehensive Guide To Modern Warfare (New York:  Quill- William Morrow and Co., Inc.).

Dunnigan, James F. and Bay, Austin (1986).  A Quick and Dirty Guide To War:  Briefings on Present and Potential Wars (New York:  Quill- William Morrow and Co., Inc.).

Gervasi, Tom (1988).  Soviet Military Power:  The Pentagon's Propaganda Document Annotated and Corrected (New York:  Vintage Books, A Division of Random House, Inc.).

Godson, Roy, ed. (1989).  Intelligence Requirements for the 1990s:  Collection, Analysis, Counterintelligence, and Covert Action (Lexington, Mass.:  Lexington Books, D.C. Heath and Co.).

Luttwak, Edward N. (1987).  Strategy:  The Logic of War and Peace (Cambridge, Mass.:  The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press).

McCain, Morris (1989).  Understanding Arms Control:  The Options (New York:  W. W. Norton & Co.).

Middleton, Drew (1983).  Crossroads of Modern Warfare (Garden City, New York:  Doubleday & Co., Inc.).

West, Nigel (1989).  Games of Intelligence:  The Classified Conflict of Internation Espionage (New York, Crown Publishers).

 

 

 

Recommended Videos
If you have difficulty finding any of these, I suggest you try the following:

Special Interest Video.
100 Enterprise Place
P.O. Box 7022
Dover, Delaware 19903-7022
1-800-522-0502

CIA

Inside The CIA On Company Business:  Part 1- The History.  "CIA's role in the cold war, Bay of Pigs, etc., 58 min."

Inside the CIA On Company Business:  Part 2- Assassination.  "Ex-agents tell shocking stories of plots to murder world leaders, 49 min."

Inside the CIA On Company Business:  Part 3- Subversion.  "Company tactics for toppling undesirable governments, 67 min."

James Bond, 007 (entertaining studies of possible scenarios)

Dr. No (1962).  Bond grapples with a mad scientist's plot to control the world.  Sean Connery, Ursula Andress.  115 min.

From Russia With Love (1962).  Voluptuous Soviet agent entraps James.  Sean Connery, Robert Shaw.  119 min.

Goldfinger (1964).  Mega-rich criminal plots theft of all gold in Fort Knox.  Bond to the rescue.  Sean Connery, Honor Blackman.  110 min.

Thunderball (1965).  World-threatening SPECTRE threatens to destroy Miami.  Sean Connery, Claudine Auger.  135 min.

You Only Live Twice (1967).  Will SPECTRE start a nuclear conflict?  It's up to Bond!  Sean Connery, Donald Pleasence.  119 min.

On Her Majesty's Secret Service (1969).  007 battles bad guy Blofeld across the globe.  George Lazenby, Diana Rigg.  143 min.

Diamonds Are Forever (1971).  Diamond market threatened with takeover by smugglers.  Sean Connery, Jill St. John.  124 min.

Live and Let Die (1973).  Bond squares off with notorious drug dealer in Caribbean.  Roger Moore, Jane Seymour.  125 min.

The Man With The Golden Gun (1974).  007 investigates theft of solar energy capsule.  Roger Moore, Britt Ekland.  123 min.

The Spy Who Loved Me (1977).  Diabolical Karl Stromberg puts Bond's cunning to the test.  Roger Moore, Barbara Bach.  125 min.

Moonraker (1979).  Bond faces aerospace magnate who threatens to take over world.  Roger Moore, Lois Chiles.  126 min.

For Your Eyes Only (1981).  007 hunts down activator of nuclear submarine.  Roger Moore, Carole Bouquet.  127 min.

Never Say Never Again (1981).  SPECTRE gets 2 warheads.  Can Bond get them back?  Sean Connery, Kim Basinger.  134 min.

Octopussy (1983).  Devious Communist group makes life tough for 007.  Roger Moore, Maud Adams.  128 min.

A View To A Kill (1985).  State-of-the-art villain has Bond on the ropes.  Roger Moore, Christopher Walken.  (131 min.)

The Living Daylights (1987).  007's hands are full with arms dealer and KGB agent.  Timothy Dalton.  (131 min.)